It's instructive that this poll and the Newsweek one were the major polls that reported a large advantage for Bush before. They were criticized then for over adjusting the Republican sample. If they're sticking with their methodology, this is especially bad news for Bush. My sense is it's still a tie game, but my even stronger sense is that the polls are more unreliable than ever this time around. Whatever the case, the Bush bounce appears to be gone. http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/gallup.poll/index.html Poll puts Bush, Kerry about even Results indicate gain for senator over last such survey Sunday, October 3, 2004 Posted: 7:38 PM EDT (2338 GMT) (CNN) -- President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday. The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group. The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 4 percentage points. By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group. The latest poll talked with 1,012 adult Americans by telephone Friday through Sunday, after the presidential debate Thursday. Among those interviewed, 934 said they were registered voters and 772 indicated they were likely to vote. "It's obvious that the debate helped Kerry. What's less obvious is how," CNN polling director Keating Holland said. Other polls conducted after the debate also showed Kerry in a virtual tie with Bush. (Full story) On the issue of the economy, the poll showed all voters favoring Kerry 51 percent to Bush's 44 percent, almost exactly the opposite of what the September 24-26 poll indicated -- Bush with 51 percent and Kerry with 45 percent. Holland said that was good news for Kerry going into the second and third debates, in which domestic issues will be highlighted. But Holland said the expectations game has shifted -- a plurality says that Kerry will do the better job in the second debate (before the first debate, most Americans thought Bush would win). "So the pressure is on Kerry to meet expectations. And let's not forget the good news for the White House in this poll: Bush is still seen as a stronger leader who would better deal with Iraq and terrorism," Holland said. Bush's numbers on the Iraq and terrorism, however, have fallen since the previous poll. He leads Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent on the question of who would do a better job in Iraq. That was down from 55 percent for Bush in the previous poll and up from 41 percent for Kerry. On who would do a better job against terrorism, Bush had 56 percent to Kerry's 39 percent. The figures in the previous poll were 61 percent for Bush to 34 percent for Kerry. The results on each question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Voters were split between the two candidates on poll questions about personal qualities, and they picked Bush as a stronger leader by a large margin. On the question of who is better at expressing himself, Kerry outpolled Bush 54 percent to 41 percent. On who cares more about people, Kerry had 49 percent and Bush 44 percent. On the question of who is more intelligent, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 38 percent. On who is more honest and trustworthy, however, Bush trumped Kerry by 46 percent to 41 percent, and when asked who among the two candidates shares their values, voters chose Bush 49 percent to 45 percent for Kerry. And when it comes to who they think is the stronger leader, those polled favored Bush by 56 percent to 37 percent for Kerry. Again, the results on each question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
i'd be extremely suspicious of any poll that had bush way up, only to have his lead evaporate "overnight". i'd feel the same way were Kerry the one way up only to crash. polls simply don't move that dramatically in a race that's this tight. there might be that much movement over the course of several weeks (as there was during august), but not from one night. i just don't believe either candidate's core support is that loosly committed, and there's not that many "uncommitteds" to have this big a swing. for what it's worth, rasmussen, who's had bush up by 2-4 points for weeks, and kerry up by a similar amount for weeks before that, reports that among respondents that watched the debate, kerry got a one point bounce. that seems more realistic.
posted this in another thread, but since this is a gallup/cnn poll, perhaps it belongs here as well: -- although Gallup...says Kerry won the debate 53% to 37%, inside the numbers it doesn't look so good for Notbush: Expressed himself more clearly Kerry 60% Bush 32% Had a good understanding of the issues Kerry 41% Bush 41% Agreed with you more on the issues you care about Kerry 46% Bush 49% Was more believable Kerry 45% Bush 50% Was more likable Kerry 41% Bush 48% Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job Kerry 37% Bush 54%
More importantly is to look at the key swing states. Right now it seems the big 3 are PA, FL and Ohio. Like I said in another thread Ohio has swung dramatically to Bush over teh last month (on 8/26 Columbus Dispatch poll both Kerry and Bush had 46%) now the Dispatch poll released this morning shows Bush with 51% and kerry with 44% with a margin of error of 2%. I have no idea what the polls look like in FL or PA but the National percentage doesn't mean much unless other states are "now in play". But Kerry did well in the 1st debate, to keep it very interesting
4chuck: Rasmussen has Bush 48 - Kerry 47 in Ohio, conducted 9/25-10/2. Apart from the poll you cited, Bush and Kerry are within the margin of error in every recent poll from each of the states you mentioned. basso: The swing isn't that extreme considering that over 60 million people watched the debate, there's been a ton of coverage -- virtually all talking about Kerry's success -- and independents overwhelmingly said Kerry won. I'm not saying it will hold, but these polls are totally believable. For now at least the pressure's on Bush.
Also, 4chuckie: You're right that those three states are big, but so are New Mexico, West Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. Each of those states are back and forth and any of them could decide the election.
The race is much too close to call at this point. IMO, the candidate who wins the day will be the one that either finally clearly defines how he will implement what he says he will do (Kerry) or somehow proves that his economic/foreign policies have been correct (Bush). The final month will tell the tale.
The polls still don't mean near as much as they have in past elections. Each of the polling firms is correcting by weighting party ID differently and they're each defining likely voter differently. Add the fact that cell users aren't represented at all and, yeah, the polls are remarkably unreliable. But they still mean something when they collectively indicate a trend. When Bush was up, after the convention, I said all we know is it's close and Bush has momentum. The polls now indicate it's close and Kerry's got the momentum. I see the smilie and I know you're just being cute, but I've been consistent on this all along.
I don't think polls themselves are accurate but I do believe they affect the actual vote come election day. people like to vote for the winner.
Holy Florida 2000 Batman! who did the debate actually help? According to electoral-vote.com , Bush's lead in the EC has gone up since the debate. September 30: Bush: 280 Kerry: 254 October 4 Bush: 295 Kerry: 243
Polls suck. Nobody knows who is really winning. And our media is in such a rush to get us news, they don't bother to do anything right. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&e=7&u=/nm/20041004/pl_nm/campaign_poll_abc_dc Seriously, there has got to be a way we can start demanding some quality from our news sources, isn't there?
nice spin there, chief. But on that site, the poll isn't done on the day you check it, those numbers are still pre-debate.
posted this in another thread, but since this is a gallup/cnn poll, perhaps it belongs here as well: Basso. What? Post in another thread. Not start 6 threads per day? A new Basso?
