2024 Astros Minor League Thread

Astros 13th round pick, Bryce Boettcher seems to be having a nice game…. As a linebacker for Oregon.

 

My bad, Luis Encarnacion.

 

Went to see Sugar Land last night. I didn't realize Dezenzo was 6'5ish. Made Hummel look Altuve sized. Matthews had a couple of hard hit balls including an RBI double. One bad throw from SS.

On a side note, Blaze Alexander was playing for the Aces. He had a horrible defensive experience in the majors before being demoted by DBacks. He made all 5 plays hit his way. I feel cheated.

 

Spoiler: Year in review 2025: Catchers

Summary: Coming off a 2023 season in which the system graduated Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee and had most of their other meaningful catching prospects have disappointing seasons, the position looks a little better at the end of 2024, having added Walker Janek and seen some prospects take good steps forward. It’s worth noting that I think Cesar Salazar is a good player who should be a solid backup or 3rd catcher for the next couple years, even though he’s no longer a prospect.


Grade 50 prospects:


Walker Janek: Houston’s first round pick didn’t have a great pro debut, with a 4% bb rate and a 29% k rate. But that’s nothing to worry about at this point. He will be back in Asheville next season and followed closely as one of Houston’s top 5 prospects and clearly their best catching prospect.


Grade 45 prospects:


Jancel Villarroel: graduated from the FCL and held his own as a 19 year old in A ball. Will probably be back at Fayetteville to start 2025 and be a breakout candidate next season.


Grade 40 prospects:


Collin Price: had a nice season, though not a true breakout. He was an average AA hitter this season at age 24. With his size, it will always appear possible for him to take a big step forward by adding power, but next season will likely be make or break. I suspect he’ll start 2025 in AA but should be in AAA most of the season as he has his Rule 5 platform year.


Miguel Palma: didn’t have a great year, missing time with injuries, seeing a bump in his k rate (to 24.5%) and drop in power. He did show a healthy walk rate. He was promoted to AAA to end the season, which could be nothing or could be a good sign for what the org thinks of him. He’s Rule 5 eligible again but not a risk to be taken.


John Garcia: Came into the season as an honorable mention non prospect and had a very good year in High A, posting a 143 wRC+. It was a bit odd he wasn’t promoted to AA before the season ended, but it’s still probably safe to assume he’ll start in Corpus next season, where he will be a breakout candidate.


Will Bush: had a solid year hitting at an above average clip (wRC+ 110) in A ball as a 20 year old. I think he has a high upside and looks to start next season sharing time with Walker Janek in Asheville.


Honorable mention non-prospects:


Garret Guillemette: Was below average in High A as a 22 year old.

Jason Schiavone: late round 2024 pick didn’t show much in a small sample and will be back in Fayetteville next season.

Kedaur Trujillo: nice bb/k ratios in FCL, worth watching once he graduates to full season.

Carlos Cauro: solid if unspectacular FCL season but might be a 1B which would make him a total non prospect at this point.

Alexi Quiroz: my favorite DSL catching prospect. 25% bb rate in DSL at age 17.


Non-prospects: Ryan Wrobleski, Fernando Caldera, Bryan Sanchez, Yosweld Vasquez, Alejandro Castellano, Francisco Caldera, Angel Marte, Diego Campos


Released: Luke Berryhill, Victor Diaz

 

Which guys are defensively (arm/glove) good enough to be a backup C someday?

 

I am not very knowledgeable about that, but I always assume that if Houston gives a guy the majority of his time at catcher then his defense at least has a chance to be passable. I have seen posters say that Palma is not viable at C but I haven’t seen any good reason to support that. But Salazar is the only guy that I’ve seen consistent positive feedback on his defense (aside from Janek), so I think Palma, Price, Garcia, Bush, and Villarroel are bat-first guys who would have to produce offensively in order to make it.

I didn’t mention Nerio Rodriguez in my post, but the fact that he hasn’t been released yet makes me think he will get another look next season. Luis Encarnacion didn’t get enough time at C for me to include him; he will be a 1B prospect moving forward.

 

Catcher may be the position I am most optimistic about with the Astros, for the first time ever. We have a breakout star with many years left of team control, and we just drafted a catcher in the first round. Based on Dana Brown's draft record, I expect Janek to be good. And I agree with Snake, I think Cesar Salazar is good backup MLB catcher, also with many years left of team control.

 

Spoiler: Year in Review 2025: 1B

Summary: 1B is the weakest position in Houston’s farm system, but that’s partially by design.

Grade 40 prospects:
Luis Encarnacion: Clearly no longer viewed as a catcher, split time between OF and 1B with a few games at 2B and C. Had a decent year in Asheville with a red hot finish in AA (4 HR in 11 G). He’s one of Houston’s best contact-oriented prospects, so if he can hit for power, he’s a real prospect. A sleeper in Corpus next season.

Cam Fisher: Scuttled with a 45% k rate in his first full season and spent time in the complexes on the development list, but the power/speed combo is still there. Split time between OF and 1B. Needs to take a big step forward when he repeats High A next season.

Honorable mention non-prospects:
Cristopfer Gonzalez: big kid (6’6”) took a step back in a repeat year in the DSL but that might not mean anything. One to watch if he gets stateside.

Non-prospects: Luis Quesada, Makhi Backstrom

Released/traded: Xavier Casserilla, Will Wagner, JC Correa, Juan Santander, Jordan Brewer

 

Spoiler: Year in Review 2025: 2B and SS

2B:
Summary: Another relatively weak position on Houston’s farm, but like 1B, that is partially by design, since most future MLB 2B are playing SS in the minors.

Grade 45 prospects:
Pascanel Ferreras: Broke out by dominating High A out of the gate, then struggled to replicate his slash line in AA. He was not overmatched in AA and could have been unlucky. He can play all over the infield but probably projects to 2B if he’s going to be an everyday player. One to keep following when he repeats AA next season.

Grade 40 prospects:
Narbe Cruz: Had a good year in High A but not quite a breakout, then looked pretty good in a really small sample in AA. Sleeper in Corpus next season.

Sandro Periera: A dominant DSL repeat albeit with a drop in power. He’s one of my favorite Astros DSL prospects and I’m ready to see him in Florida.

Jesus Bastidas: minor league free agent signee had a decent year in AAA but is probably not more than a AAAA player; he will be a free agent again.

Alejandro Nunez: had a decent year as a 20 year old in A ball, splitting time at 2B, SS, LF, and CF. Struck out a little too much to really get on the map but he’ll be a deep sleeper in Asheville next year.


Honorable mention non-prospects:
Drew Vogel: late round pick showed good k/bb ratios and elite speed (10 SB in 22 G) but literally zero power in a small sample.

Anthony Sherwin: was an above average bat in High a despite a huge k rate and middling ISO. Not sure what to expect, probably a non-prospect.

Hector Salas: older DSL prospect had great numbers in his debut and split time across all 4 infield spots. Worth watching if/when he comes stateside.

Non-prospects: Max Holy, Samuel Brito, Jeremy Arocho

Released: Jacob Amaya, Rafael Ramirez, Bryan Arias, Luis Colon

SS:
Summary: The SS group improved overall with moderate breakouts from their top prospect and a couple of other high ceiling guys.

Grade 55 prospects:
Brice Matthews: Crushed High A and AA despite high k rates to reach AAA in his first full season. Should be on the back end of most Top 100 lists and a 2025 MLB debut is likely. Superstar potential but will need to clean up the swing and miss, which is possible because of his work ethic and how raw he is.

Grade 45 prospects:
Chase Jaworsky: Didn’t have the major breakout I’d dreamed of but still had a solid season as a 19 year old in A ball and looks like a really good prospect. Improved the odds that he sticks at SS. Mainly needs to develop physically and add power without losing speed/range. Ended the season hurt. 2025 major breakout candidate assuming his injury wasn’t severe.

Jeron Williams: Showed elite speed and good contact profile in a moderate breakout season. Dominated High A before running into low babip in AA which might be bad luck. A very high ceiling sleeper who could take another huge step next season in Corpus.

Grade 40 prospects:
German Ramirez: Big bonus international signee didn’t have a great year in the FCL but that might not mean anything. He was promoted to Fayetteville to end the season which likely means that is where he will start 2025, making him a breakout candidate.

Tommy Sacco Jr.: A moderate breakout got him on the map. He’s a very good defensive player who appears to have improved his contact ability and sports at least double digit HR power. He’s already in AAA and isnt yet Rule 5 eligible. Tommy Manzella comp.

Alberto Hernandez: Very disappointing season where he showed no power and middling k/bb rates. He was sent down to the FCL to end the season. But he was a big bonus signee and Fangraphs had him as Houston’s #3 prospect, so there’s hope. Big season for him next year and we can assume he’ll repeat A ball.

Honorable mention non-prospects:
Ryan Johnson: Strikeout problems made for a bad year, but he was given a lot of time at SS. Next year will be make or break.

Cristian Gonzalez: A second consecutive lost season to injury puts his career in jeopardy but he was a high ceiling prospect and breakout candidate before he got hurt. Needless to say, if he’s not released, 2025 is make or break for him.

Non-prospects: Yariel Almanzar, Franchely Silverio, Jose Robledo

Released: Hector Nieves

 

Spoiler: Year in Review 2025: 3B

Summary: The system graduated 2 good 3B prospects this season, although both look like they could end up at other positions. Still, a nice year overall from this group and there are a couple of high ceiling guys in the lower levels who could break out next season.

Grade 50 prospects:
Zach Dezenzo: Was rushed to the majors after coming back from a significant injury. Struggled in the big leagues but crushed AAA. Played mostly 1B in Houston but I think he can stick at 3B. I have a lot of hope for him; his exit velos and overall athleticism give him a star ceiling. He will be in the mix for both the 1B and 3B jobs with the Astros this spring depending on their offseason moves. He could also be trade bait or stashed in AAA for further development.

Shay Whitcomb: Parlayed a great year in AAA into a big league promotion where he’s shown good k/bb ratios and decent exit velos but very few extra base hits. I think his adjustment to reduce strikeouts is legit but he is not a great defensive player. Still, he should have a good big league career and could be a very good player. He could be in the mix for a 1B, 3B, LF, or bench role with the Astros next season, but otherwise will be in AAA waiting for another shot.

Grade 40 prospects:
Caden Powell: Overslot draftee had bad bb/k ratios in a 94 pa sample in A ball but that doesn’t mean much. I like him and he’s a breakout candidate next season.

Camilo Diaz: Big bonus international signee struck out a ton in FCL but I don’t put stock in those numbers. He played more 3B than SS in deference to German Ramirez but also I think his body type points to 3B long term anyway. He ended the year in Fayetteville and is a breakout candidate when he starts back there next season.

Waner Luciano: Very disappointing season in A ball from a guy who came into the year with a lot of breakout potential. Was sent back to Florida to end the year. He will only be 20 next season so he’s still got time but he needs to show progress when he goes back to Fayetteville next season.

Austin Deming: Had a really nice season and hit 19 HR in 103 games across High A and AA. Moderate sleeper potential but I don’t know much about his defense or exit velos. We’ll know what he is for sure by the end of next season.

Honorable Mention non-prospects:
Trevor Austin: I like what he showed in A ball after he signed. Probably a non-prospect but worth tracking what he does next season.

Non-prospects: Jhon Diaz, Jesus Mujica, Wilton Lara, Darwin De Leon

Released: Chad Stevens

 

With not many people thinking Bregman will be back, it will be interesting if the Astros go with internal options or seek someone via free agency or a trade.

 

If the Astros are considering a FA 3B next year, it might as well be ... Alex Bregman.

 

Pickings are certainly slim. In free agency it’s Bregman and a bunch of questions unless they want to overpay a SS like Adames or Kim. I imagine they’re hoping they can get thru the first half of the season with some combo of Whitcomb, Dezenzo, and Dubon and hope that if none of them siege the job then either Matthews is ready or there ends up being a good option on the trade market. Which is fine as long as they address 1B and/or LF to the point that 3B is only expected to hit 7th or 8th in the lineup.

 

Spoiler: Year in Review 2025: Outfielders

LF:
Summmary: Not much to see among pure LF prospects in this system but like 2B and 1B, that’s because the future LF are likely at other positions in the minors.

40 grade prospects:
Yamal Encarnacion: Moderate breakout in A ball at age 20. He has at least 65 grade speed and really good contact ability. Power will likely not be a part of his game but he has value.

Colin Barber: one of the all-time worst overreactions I’ve had. He’s now a pure LF who lacks power and is always hurt. Barring a breakout 2025 will be the end of the line.

Eduardo Perez: We won’t be able to get excited until he gets to Florida. Long road ahead.

Honorable mention non-prospects:
Oliver Carrillo: disappointing year after getting to High A and 2025 will be make or break.

Zach Daniels: lost season due to injury but might get one more chance. Elite power potential.

Non-prospects: Juan Sierra, Esteban Romero, Rabel Colon, Karniel Pratt, Lucas Spence, Justin Trimble

Released: Samuel Capellan, Frailin Yan

CF:
Summary: The Astros have a deep crop of CF prospects that are spread out from AAA to the FCL.

Grade 55 prospects:
Jacob Melton: Should be on most offseason Top 100 lists and is vying with Brice Matthews to be the Astros #1 overall prospect. Didnt show as much power or contact as liked but improved his defensive outlook and showed valuable base stealing. Needs more time in AAA but could be a star player if he takes a step with reducing strikeouts.

Grade 45 prospects:
Kenni Gomez: Had a moderate breakout (122 wRC+) as a 19 year old in A ball before continuing to be competitive in High A. Major breakout candidate if his power comes while he’s in Asheville.

Pedro Leon: Power, speed, defense, and strikeouts. Improved contact profile in AAA earned him a promotion to the majors where he didn’t play and struck out 47% of the time on the rare days he took the field. I still like him and he has a floor as a speed/defense/pop bench player, and his journey lends him to having more upside than the normal 26 year old.

Kenedy Corona: Had a really bad year repeating AA with awful contact profile and it didn’t improve when he got promoted to AAA. Still, he’s a very high ceiling/floor prospect due to his defensive and baserunning value, and at 24 there’s still upside in his offense. 2025 is make or break and he’s a breakout candidate.

Esmil Valencia: Didn’t have a great year in the FCL but I was really high on him when he signed and he improved his defensive profile. Need to see him in full season before we know how excited to get.

Grade 40 prospects:
Anthony Huezo: Struggled mightily in the FCL before looking relatively good in a very small sample in High A. Very high ceiling prospect who will be a major sleeper if he starts next season in Asheville.

Joseph Sullivan: 7th round pick this year showed well in Fayetteville and could be a low ceiling fast rising 4th OF.

Cesar Hernandez: Had an underwhelming season in A ball as a 21 year old, but he just signed and go to the States so it could just be an adjustment year, and he did improve his defensive and baserunning profile (34 SB). Potential breakout candidate next season.

Logan Cerny: Common profile in Houston’s system of elite power/speed/defensive guys with strikeout problems. 14 HR and 32 SB in 103 G shows his upside, 34% k rate in High A as a 24 year old shows his weakness. Still, Houston has shown patience with guys like him and he should get one more crack in AA and you never know when I guy will figure it out and blow up. Sleeper.

Tyler Whitaker: A lost season repeating High A and missing most of the year due to injury. When he did play there were no signs that he’d addressed the hole in his swing. Still, he has an elite power/speed combo so the ceiling is there. 2025 is make or break for his career.

Honorable mention non-prospects:
Amauri Ramirez: notable bonus athletic DSL guy worth following.

Non-prospects: Leandro Morgado, Korey Morton, Roiner Quintana

Released/traded: Joey Loperfido, Jackson Loftin

RF:
Summary: A mixed bag from this group, but Houston has an above average number of very high ceiling prospects across the OF.

Grade 50 prospects:
Luis Baez: Had a good but not dominant season in High A as a 20 year old then looked ok in 14 AA games to end the season. I almost put him in the 45 group due to defensive limitations. Still, he is super young and one of the highest ceiling bats Houston has, with legit 35 HR potential in the majors if he develops.

Grade 45 prospects:
Zach Cole: Struck out way too much but showed the power and speed that makes him such an exciting prospect. If he has a 2024 Shay Whitcomb type of adjustment, he could be a superstar.

Nehomar Ochoa Jr.: His k rate is too high but he’s only 19 and he showed more defensive and baserunning value than expected. He has 2-3 more years before we will really have an idea but he’s got tremendous ceiling. Major breakout candidate next season.

Trey Cabbage: Graduated as a super high risk power/speed OF who can play all 3 spots plus 1B. He struggled in his 2nd cup of coffee in the majors, which was easy to predict given his minor league k rates. His raw tools and baserunning value give him a good shot to see time on big league benches for the next few years but he’s mostly a crummier version of Joey Gallo.

Quincy Hamilton: He had a nice underrated season in AAA and popped 15 HR with an above average overall slash line. I think he’ll make somebody a fine 4th OF and is a mild Rule 5 risk.

Grade 40 prospects:
Rolando Espinosa: He struck out a lot but generally held his own in AA. He’s a really good athlete with 20/20 potential and some defensive versatility. Deep sleeper but he’s already in AA. Underrated.

Luis Rives: Big bonus 2024 international signee struggled in FCL games but it’s too early to make any judgements. We will have to wait and see what he does if/when he’s assigned to Fayetteville next year.

Non-prospects: Marco Marcelino

 

Depends on what type of money demands he wants. Could be he is looking for all-star level money but Astros see him as a better than solid starter, but unlikely all-star.

With Dana and the computer models sifting through untapped potential, there could be an overlooked player in free agency or a trade, that could work out for the Astros.

But my preference is that the Astros work out a deal with Alex Bregman. But I cannot fault Bregman wanting the most he can secure or the Astros priority of getting the most value for the buck.

 

Pena and Meyers are part of the issue here.

3b is a corner position, and therefore one that requires some offense. Certainly must he counted on for 110+ OPS+/wRC+ at a minumum.

Of course it's in the field, so defense stull counts. Whitcomb has shown that !!

But having a SS and CF who will be below 110 with little chance of any better means the 3b ( and 1b?) must bring more offensive production and security.

If Pena and Meyers were more consistent and be counted on for 100, even if they never hit 110 it would take some pressure off of the 3b position.

 

Don’t be shocked if they go outside the organization. Christian Walker is someone the Astros have serious interest in. Also the Astros and White Sox have had casual discussions about Andrew Vaughn. Someone the Astros feel they can help unlock some on offense.

 

Makes sense, I’m just skeptical about what Walkers price will be; I assume he could easily get a 3 year deal and I definitely don’t want Houston giving him 4 years. I wonder if they could platoon Singleton and McCormick next season, with Singleton DH’ing and Alvarez playing LF against righties. Singleton’s 2024 numbers against RHP and McCormick’s career numbers against LHP would make for an eelite hitter. Add that to adding a good everyday 1B like Walker is probably all they’d need.

Altuve
Tucker
Alvarez
Walker
Diaz
Singleton/McCormick
Pena
3B (Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Dubon, or Matthews)
Meyers

 

Walker would be a monster in Houston.

Gold glove to save a few errors by Pena and co.

30+ HR & .800+ OPS+/wRC+ RH bat who pulls pitches and hits fly balls, both above MLB average

Altuve
Tucker/Yordan
Walker
Yordan/Tucker
Diaz
XXXXXX
XXXXXX
Pena
Meyers