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Jalen Green will be the Rockets' Numero Uno

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by kpdark, Jan 2, 2024.

  1. Strawberry Gum

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    Do you know how the leaders in each category were determined?
     
  2. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Given their numerical number is not "100"(being the highest percentile possible) it means they are the league leader in frequency of that play type.

    So Jalen Brunson has the most pnr ball handler possessions in the league as an example.
     
    #5302 fchowd0311, Sep 6, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024
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  3. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    More important is the numbers, they represent the players' percentile at that play type.

    So, for example, if someone had a 70, that would mean something like 90 players were better than them at that play type. If you got a 90 it would mean you are roughly top 30 in the league at that play type.

    Of course, some have higher numbers than reality due to low sample size, but the graphic isn't entirely worthless
     
  4. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Players that set up at the top of the key go into the teeth of the defense. Best their defender and then those near the rim. That's part of the zone defense variations.

    Amen was crushing it in March as The Dunker Spot. Amen has been doing it longer than Sengun.
    Sengun is stuck in the mud compared to Amen.

    Amen moves as the facilitator makes his move.
    Received lob dunks as he was often left open. Received the ball on one side of the rim....power dribble and dunk it on either side of the rim.

    At one time in March he was 79% near the rim.
    I think it dropped to 71% as teams started understanding he needed to be accounted for.

    What I saw at the end of March was 3 defenders
    Surrounding Green at the top of the key.
    Defender didn't leave Amen (plus needed to
    kick out to defend weak side corner shooter.
    Weskside corner shooter ended up being one of the 3 defenders trying to corral Jalen Green.

    Teams most of March were sending that defender guarding Amen in the dunker spot. Teams got burned over and over again by that.
     
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  5. Strawberry Gum

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    Thank you.
     
  6. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    That chart really doesn't paint a pretty picture for Jalen.

    The one thing he does "better than anyone else on the roster" is the thing he does the least.

    The thing he does second best is blown away by Cam being in the top 7% and Amen top 10% while Jabari is even 2% better at that.
    What he does the most, he's behind Brooks, Holiday, FVV, the other Green & again Whitmore on in efficiency.

    What that chart tells me is that he has a lot of work to do.

    And maybe Cam is the star - even if he isn't the guy breaking down defenses at the point of attack - there's a lot of ways to accomplish that thru scheme.
     
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  7. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    All these stats are from NBA.com. So it is easy to calculate league average from the Team Stats for playtype (ie, add up all possessions by all teams, and all points by all teams for that playtype, then calculate PPP).
    • Green is actually at league average on PNR Handler, not well above.
    • But he is well above league average on Handoffs.
    • I still consider his pnr-handler good, because he helped us reach 9th in the league on that (as FVV's good PPP -- 0.99 -- at high-volume couldn't do it soley).
    • Same with hand-off, Jalen very much helped us achieve 4th in the league.

    Here's the stats for Jalen's top-3 highest frequency playtypes

    [​IMG]
     
    #5307 heypartner, Sep 6, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024
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  8. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    It says 61 percentile for Green in pnr ball handler so either your league average was calculated wrong or that graph is wrong.
     
  9. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    First off 61% is pretty close to 50%.

    The 61% number includes all players that ever ran a play type meaning the 61% isn't in the top 100 in the league.... so 61% is already pretty bad.

    It's possible the other "league average" number cited is an overall PPP that effectively weeds out the small sample guys that are weighed equally in your number.
     
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    My numbers are not wrong, and the graph is not wrong

    61 percentile is player rank for those who qualify (10 mpg and 10+ possessions). But it doesn’t show us how he compares to league average PPP.

    I find it more common to talk about actual League Ave PPP, than how players are spread around that average.

    Like when we talk about league ave 3F%, no one talks about Green’s rank. We talk about if he is shooting league average.
     
    #5310 heypartner, Sep 6, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024
  11. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    We are comparing players not team averages. A lot of the players with low possessions come from garbage time and therefore add significant noise.
     
  12. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Again, no need to guess here. The chart is directly from nba.com.

    All I did was go the the Team version of Playtype stats and add up all possessions and all points. My league average PPP for said playtypes is accurate
     
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  13. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    you are only comparing rankings because that’s all the chart offered, which is fine.
    I’m also offering the league ave PPP to look at.

    These are not team averages. They are actual playtype PPP average for every time the play was run throughout the league.

    It is just the same and looking up league averages for FG, 3F, and FT

    NBA.COM has league-wide totals points for the playtype, and league-wide total possessions.
     
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  14. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    just to be clear about noise, that Chart is from stats that include anyone with 10mpg and 10+ possessions for the whole year. That’s a lot of noise.
     
    #5314 heypartner, Sep 6, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024
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  15. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    Or mean and median are different things. Since the guys at the top of the list has many more possessions than the guys at the bottom, for this data mean would be considerably larger than median.
     
  16. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I wasn't in a position where I could look it up at the time, so I'm glad you did. It seems like it's essentially the same as I said. The original chart showed a percentile based on every qualified player equally weighted, your numbers were based on the overall averages which basically eliminates the influence of fringe players.

    I think the context added by your numbers makes it really hard for those who might want to use the original chart to suggest anything good when it's actually kind of depressing.
     
  17. jogo

    jogo Member

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    I was going to talk about ISO but I wasn't able to get the stats. Thank you for putting this up.

    To me, a big issue is Jalen thinks he can ISO often due to his athleticism. This leads to blocks, turnovers, and sometimes made shots. It also makes me think his IQ is lower than other people say or at least he doesn't recognize when to do what as an ISO player. If Jalen takes better shots (and fewer threes) than he could be more efficient. But he won't score 25 ppg. (He won't score 25 ppg no matter what this season so that's not going to happen.)

    Jalen's best shot this years is 18-20ppg, up his defense and assists, improve that damn three point shooting. Some people think he can get 25 ppg and that's not going to happen. He could get 23 but I think the efficiency is going to be bad. He needs to work off of Fred and Sengun, off the handoff or pnr. He needs to be reigned in by coach.
     
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  18. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    He doesn't iso much.

    Pnr ball handler possessions are by far the largest share.of his possessions.

    Then hand off, then spot up and then iso. So fourth most frequent possession type.
     
  19. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Sure, and it's a good thing because he's flat out embarrassing at ISO.

    When it comes to PnR ball handler, the numbers suggest that he should do it less and guys like FVV and even Cam should do it more.....probably Sheppard too, but we'll have those numbers next year.

    When it comes to handoffs, Jabari, Amen, and Cam should do it more frequently.

    When it comes to spot up, Jalen should just never do it because he can't shoot a basketball. Damn near the entire team should do that more frequently than Jalen.

    When it comes to ISO, honestly, no one on the team should do them.
     
  20. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    Straight Up Embarrassing :cool:

     
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