No. I am careful about buying in too much on bat-only prospects. His walk and k rates have not been that great; that’s mitigated by how young he’s been, but if I’m gonna count on a guy with no speed/range to be an everyday player, he needs to cover all 3 areas of hitting: high walk rates, low k rates, and massive power. Don’t get me wrong, Baez has a high ceiling and is one of the 10 best prospects in the system, but he’s going to have to dominate AA with a k rate <25% and a bb rate >10% before I would bet on him being a good MLB hitter. Of course, I was skeptical of Yordan up until he got to AAA for the same reasons so wtf do I know.
Bat only prospects can be very under-rated - Alvarez is an example that we all know about, and Votto was another. However - they really have to bring the bat, they cannot just be "solid" or "good", they need to either be an absolute standout at a skill (Luis Arraez) or they better be able to walk enough and hit for enough power to get their OPS+ in the 120 range. Since the first time I saw Baez, I saw a guy with plus power that could hit 35 homers in the big leagues, but that doesn't draw enough walks or hit for enough average to really be an all star level bat. Reminded me a lot of Domingo Santana as far as overall impact. A top 10% outcome would be a Nelson Cruz type hitter without the longevity. Baez is still young enough that he could become better at working counts - drawing walks - and as a consequence of working the count, even hitting for MORE power.... thus going from a power only guy with mediocre secondary betting skills, to becoming a good OBP guy and an ELITE power bat (because his command of the zone improves and he gets better pitches to drive). I like him as a prospect - he could end up being a starter even, but based on what I have personally witnessed of him, I would trade him for a player that would really help the Astros for a couple seasons.... and, if he DOES take that next step of controlling the count, then we will be having a different conversation...... but he doesn't "pop" for me like Diaz and Alvarez did. When I saw Yordan, I saw a guy that naturally knew how to hit, and if his bat speed improved with conditioning (it did) could be a top 3 hitter in baseball....... and Diaz, he doesn't really know what he is doing at the plate, but he just has a lot of power and strength and bat speed - Brice Matthews is like that, but he doesn't make as much contact.
I've been super high on Baez. But I'm very concerned by him not improving during the year. He had an abysmal July, but still got a promotion.
Domingo Santana is a really good comp. We should know a whole lot more about Baez by July of next year. If he has 200+ pa in AA next season with a significant improvements in bb/k rates over what he has shown so far in lower levels, then he’ll definitely be an elite prospect and somebody we can pencil in as a core piece starting in 2026. If he still posts single digit walk rates and >25% k rates, he’s probably not more than a risky/fringy corner OF prospect (see Domingo Santana).
Tommy Sacco Jr was promoted to AAA today. He has had a good year and is on the map as a potential AAAA utility guy.
How Ochoa’s body matures is going to be huge. He looks like if he doesn’t work hard, he will turn into a bad body real quick, but if he works, he will be an absolute monster.
I think I might have him in the top 10 of Astros prospects. Thats not the right sport but he could be the best position player in the system but much much much more likely never plays in the bigs.
Baez is the most talented position player in the Stros system. His bat reminds me of Yanier's bat. He's got some of the same issues Yanier had as a very young player. I dont remember reading that he is a bad OF defensively. The fact that they put him in RF tells me they dont think he's bad defensively. He's got a good arm. With that said, if his bat plays like I think it will and he's weak defensively, then get him a 1st baseman's glove and teach him how to play 1B.
He actually has a good, well above average arm. But he is already a below average runner and he will likely end up 250+ pounds by age 25 unless he is super duper good at taking care of his body. I can’t think of any 6’1” 250 lb players who were worth much defensively.
Jackson Nezuh allowed three hits, walked two, and struck out six in four scoreless innings of relief for Asheville tonight. 2.70 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 7 appearances (4 starts, 30 IP) since he went to the western part of North Carolina. Still a pretty small sample, but large enough to suggest that he won't get completely bombed in Asheville. (Honestly, I think I want to see if he can handle an aggressive assignment. Start him in Corpus in 2025.)
He is an interesting prospect. His success is going to come down to how well he learns to draw walks and improve on working the count. The power is there - it isn't Stanton or Alvarez level power, but he could hit 30-40 homers a year if he learns to force pitchers to throw him pitches in the area where he can cripple them. His work ethic and attitude both are considered good and he is ambitious - he wants to come to the United States and play big league baseball and be involved in the game a long time, which is really important because some guys just don't approach it that way. He will be able to play the field at the big league level if his bat comes through - he has some long-term size concerns, but he knows angle on balls, his arm is under-rated and he should be able to play RF or LF for a number of years at acceptable or slightly better than average play for a number of years before his range is just not good enough - smart fielder. I like him as a prospect - I would deal him for the right big league bat this summer if that was an option, because the Astros window is closing - but I would not be trying to move him.
His size concerns are legitimate - which could push him to 1st base eventually. The concern with him in RF is that he either risks injury or that his range just becomes too limited - what gives me some hope is that he really gets a good read on flyballs, he positions himself well - takes good angles and also has a strong arm. He also is faster than he looks, he can steal a base. Baez is in a really good situation - the Astros are going to likely have an entirely new outfield and 1st basemen in 2 years, and if he produces, he will get opportunities to play.
This kid is an absolute specimen - he is the age of high school seniors (turned 19 in July), and is like 6'4" and 240 lbs. with speed, a gun for an arm and lots of power. He also has already figured out how to draw walks. He needs to polish his fielding some and cut down his strikeouts, but if I were a team wanting to bring in young Astros in a trade - he is the bat I want.
This is how I see Baez. But if you believe in his bat you hold onto him because if he hits his potential he keeps the window open and he should be ready to compete at the MLB level in a couple of years. I see Baez on the same level as Diaz at this stage of his career. Very talented and will produce even if he's a bit undisciplined at the plate as a 21 year old. If Dana can add a major bat this off-season and sign a couple of Gamel type prospects. Letting JV walk and bringing back Kikuchi is where I would start the off-season unless I could get Framber to sign an extension. If Framber didn't want to sign an extension then he would be the guy I would look to move for an impact bat. Cincy or the Cards is where I would begin my shopping.
