What is the potential of the team this season if everything goes right?

Ya most likely one of those teams will get injured and win 35 games, one will be good, one will be just alright

 

98-0.

 

If Green (8-10 FTA) and Jabari (6 FTA) get to the foul line at that level. We reach our potential. We threaten the conference finals. That's all it will take. That means 10 more FT a game combined.

 

lmao

 

But even a prime James Harden is not going to get to the line 10 times with a post player stuck in the paint most of the game. A post player who's amazing but neither a lob threat nor a shooter. To get a guy to the line that much, you have to build the offense around them.

Give Green 4 shooters around him and we can get those 8+ FTA. More realistically though, Green needs to shoot better in the half court because he's getting good kick outs.

If Sengun comes out with a 3PT then everything you're saying becomes possible (though not probable imo).

 

Continued from post #32

Sengun plays only 20 games (approximately) : faster pace, court spacing maxed
for premier offensive efficiency.....switch everything defensively: [ 58 wins ]

Sengun hits 3's: opens up lanes for JG4, Cam Whitmore, VanVleet, Dillon, Jabari.
Udoka can open up entire playbook [ 54 wins ]

Sengun doesn't hit 3's consistently: Sengun and JG4 working well together, mix in **VanVleet
so he doesn't revert to poor 3-point shooting as spot shooter as he did previous season
with Toronto. [ 47 wins ] **note JG4 is not the only one with decreased 3P% when forced
to be a spot shooter.

Sengun doesn't hit 3's consistently: Sengun and JG4 don't work good together. Udoka has
to balance between Sengun (Drop Coverage defense) and not drawing defenders out of
the paint vs Hampton-5 lineup (Switch everything on defense) and spread the court.
Sengun & JG4 might be splitting 24 minutes each with little overlap (like we did with
Harden-CP3). [ 42 wins ]

 

The Rockets will need to trade Tate, Jeff Green, Landale, and AJ Griffin and possibly a pick to a tanking team for a disgrunted high quality semi star player by the Febuary deadline in order to make a stronger push for the playoffs.

I believe that Houston can make the play in tournament without a future upgrade.


PS: I believe I overrated the trade value of the players above in this post of mine. Brooks will have to be added in there as well, but it will hard to pull off a significant trade in Houston's favor.

 

I think as is, if everyone just improves a little, we are guaranteed a playin spot and could get as high as 5 depending on how everything else shakes up for other teams. I think we can win 50 this year. But could also win 40. We have to win some close games and beat the bad teams this year.

 

Jabari getting 6 fta a game is a very tall order. That's a decent number even for Green, a rim attacking off the dribble Uber athletic scoring guard. Jabari isn't known for his rim attacking.

Green getting 8-10 fta means he's a superstar. You are near leading the league in fta per game at that volume and usually superstars are leading ng the league in fta.

 

This team still doesn't quite have the elevated attention to detail that consistent playoff teams have. Every team has really good, talented players in the playoffs - it's not just about that. The execution is another level there and teams who have went deep in the playoffs are more prepared for that - and those are the teams we are likely facing in the first round(if we get there) so I put first round loser. The only way we win a first round series is if we catch a top 4 team experiencing a significant injury at the wrong time.

...and while I look forward to a MUCH improved Rockets team this year - extra wins don't happen in a vacuum so we also have to be realistic about who is worse in the West this year if Houston is moving into the playoffs. We were 5 wins out of the play-in tourney and 8 wins out of a guaranteed first round berth last year.

West teams just as good or better than last year:
- The Thunder(somehow got BETTER)
- Nuggets...although they lost KCP but still likely a top 5 WC team
- TWolves
- Mavs
- I don't necessarily think the Warriors will be awesome but I think will be better this year moving off of Paul and Klay and replacing them with Melton, Hield, and Anderson.
- The Kings will be better
-The Suns are entirely dependent on health although they seem to have added a little more depth this year so maybe they don't get killed in their 2nd units and squeeze out a few more regular season wins.
- The Griz are likely significantly better returning Jah with a more experienced GG Jackson and that's a problem because they finished below us in the standings last year because of massive injuries.

West teams worse than last year:
- Lakers - added virtually nothing, father time catching up with both LBJ and Davis
- Clippers are likely worse this year(will be interesting to see how KPJ looks for the Clippers) but they also still seem like a high 40s win team just with Kawhi/Harden.
- The Pels lost a lot of depth but gained a better top end player in Murray - who tf knows with that team since so much of their success hinges on the least motivated but also most impossible to stop player in the NBA.

...in my mind, we are likely a playin team competing in a single elimination tournament with some combination of the Clippers, Suns, Grizzlies, Warriors, and Kings...and I don't love our odds playing a high stakes single elimination game against any of those vet teams given the reasons I mentioned above if those teams are relatively healthy....but you never know - Harden may be in the "ready to leave after a year of carrying the Clippers" mode, and many of those teams could be limping into the back half of the season. I think they certainly could make the playoffs via the play in - but the odds of beating OKC or Denver/Dallas/Sota in a best of 7 are pretty low even if Houston sees significant growth across the board.

 

I disagree with the Kings. I think we've seen the ceiling of that team and I can see the Rockets surpassing the Kings because the Rockets have the better overall talent with a great coaching staff and a lot of headroom for improvement because all the core talent are still at development age.

 

You think Sabonis, Fox, DeRozan, Keegan Murray, and Malik Monk are worse than our young Rockets team? Yeah man - hard disagree there. I do think Houston will pass them sooner rather than later but this year that's still a better team unless several Rockets take some sizable leaps(which I hope they do). I will admit that is an older team and thus more prone to injury so there is a chance.....but we are talking about a 46-48 win team who just upgraded from Barnes to DeRozan. I don't love DeRozan necessarily but Barnes was falling off and that team needed more playmakers(had to rely heavily on Monk last year) and added a guy who can very much still do that. You may be right about their limited ceiling but that ceiling led to better results than what Houston had last year.

...and not to start a war because I like both Sabonis and Sengun, but I think that ceiling comment is interesting considering there are a lot of similarities to their games even though how they score is a bit different. I think that speaks to the "leap" Sengun needs to take to separate himself from the guy on a limited ceiling team averaging 19/13/8 on better efficiency as a similar playmaking forward/center. It's entirely possible - Sengun is a more creative offensive player and passer and Sabonis is a technician in a lot of ways but if the results are that good as a technician and yet still not quite good enough for the team's ceiling you have to ask yourself why that is - defensive limitations of big guys, 3pt shooting limitations, etc. There is a reason why there aren't a lot of teams truly built around a big like that and the gulf between Sabonis and Jokic is pretty wide.

And to be clear, this isn't me saying we don't need Sengun - it's saying Sengun can't be our best player until he takes a Jokic level leap and that's really really rare.

 

I think some folks read the thread title to mean that every Rockets player reaches their ceiling this coming year. Vets aside, its unlikely any of them do. While I expect growth from most, a leap by a couple, it will years to come before most even sniff their ceilings.

 

It could be all of the above.

Young teams come together and take off once they learn how to win, it is just a moment in time - we just have to wait and see.

DD

 

Probably losing in 6 in the first round if everyone goes right as you defined

 

If it's favorable match up then I can see a second round appearance. The Rockets seem to do well against the Suns, Lakers and Kings.

We struggle against teams like the Mavs, Warriors.

 

Dynastic

 

I was thinking it would be OKC, Minny, Dallas or Denver

 

Maximum possible outcome would be somewhere in the mid-50s for wins and making it to the second round of the playoffs. That would require really successful outcomes for most of the young players, good injury luck, and also getting lucky in some other areas, such as squeaking out a lot of tight wins.

I don't see us getting past the second round in the playoffs basically no matter what happens. None of our young core has any playoff experience at all. The veterans do, but they're not going to be the best players on a team that successful--we basically know what FVV is, for example, and he's really good, but not good enough to lead a team to the Finals.