I never understand this idea. Sure you can. If we had traded Alvarez for Zach Wheeler at the deadline I’d think we’d have too much pitching.
It cost the team in the long run. When they've made the WS and lost it's been because they were short of pitching. Hinch'es screwup not withstanding.
Each of the 5 guys that are significantly worse in your opinion have a career FIP better than Kikuchi.
I think what he has done in the past is less important than what the Astros think he could give us going forward.
The Blue Jays gave him 3/$36M 3 years ago. Despite being mediocre for them, he netted a good return in prospects. Actually, a deal similar to the on he is on now makes some sense. Though I prefer going with a 2 year deal for a pitcher that is 34. Will Wagner is amazingly 8-15 with 3 doubles. Joey hit his first HR as a Blue Jay, and Jake Bloss has not given up a run in his 2 AAA outings for them. I feel bad because I simultaneously want to root for those guys but also not feel like the deal was terrible. Really need Kikuchi to help us win a 3rd WS so I can just let it be a win-win.
There is much more than FIP to determining a pitcher's value. Kikuchi has the stuff to be a dominant playoff starter and no significant injury risk (besides just being a pitcher). He pitched 167.2 innings last year and when he was injured he came back in 3 weeks. This year he has not been injured, and should once again pitch 165+ innings. Rodriguez: missed half the season in 2022. In 2023 he was pitching like a CY contender, missed 6 weeks then was good but not great when he returned. Got 4 yrs /$80M Giolito had such a bad season in 2023 he was traded and then waived. 5.27 FIP. Got 2 yrs /$38.5M Stroman has always been the subject of worry and doubt about his durability due to his small frame. Missed 6 weeks injured in each of 2022 and 2023. Got 2 yrs /$37M Wacha hasn't thrown 135 innings since 2017. Got 2 yrs /$32M Montgomery was traded by Yankees in 2022 because they didn't feel he was good enough to be in their playoff rotation. He was a good not great MOR starter for the Cardinals in 2022 and 2023 then traded to Texas where he had a CY Young level playoff run and postseason. Got 1 yr $25M + his 2025 option just vested at $22.5M and will go up to $25M w/ 5 more starts. Kikuchi will get bank next year.
If Kikuchi pitches lights out the rest of the season and into the playoffs I think people will be surprised at how much he gets paid on his next deal. For now I think it’s probably a lot more likely that Houston re-signs Verlander than Kikuchi. And if Houston has any measure of confidence in Garcia being fully healthy on opening day 2025 then I’m fine with that, given how awesome Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti have looked over the last 2 months.
Just saw a jomboy video where he is b****ing about how the Yankees struggle against lefties. I didn’t even think this could be a move to match up against them in the post season
Yusei in his six years in The MLB has a -3.6 WAR to show for it. Yusei will be 34 years old at the start of next season. I would hate to be the team who signs Yusei for more than a 2 year. contract. Yusei might kill the next two months and post season, but his track record is not great. Someone will overpay ... like the Blue Jays did three years ago. The question is by how much.
That same logic could have been applied to us letting Charlie Morton walk after we unlocked his potential.
The Astros had Charlie F*CKING Morton for 2 full years where he put up 5.3 WAR. It was a little easier to project his future production, when Tampa signed him for two year. Morton also had an injury track record, which bit Tampa in the second, final year of that contract. Morton made $15 million with Tampa and $20 million with the Braves. That might represent a hometown discount :shrug: Yusei is no Charlie F*CKING Morton.
Hopefully Kikuchi looks good tonight because the last three times he's faced the Red Sox (once this year and twice last year) he gave up five runs in each start and went 4, 4.1 and 4.1 innings.
I absolutely love Charlie F'n Morton and wouldn't be against bringing him back. But Kikuchi has been every bit as dominant as Morton was in a Stros uniform in a small sample size.
I too love Chatlie F'n Morton. That said, hindsight is 20-20 Right now, with the caveat that things can change, Kikuchi is a better bet for 2025+ than ol' Ground Chuck was going into 2017.
He certainly carries risk, but it could be a great value for another team. And to speak to WAR differences, Fangraphs has him at 6.5 WAR in his career. I think assuming he stays good in an Astros uniform, that we offer around 2/$30M and that I'd be comfortable with. $3/$40M would be good too. I just don't want to see the team go much outside of that. Short-term deal or low AAV should be the goal.
On one hand, the peripheral stats show quite a bit of improvement. A FIP of 2.90, an increase in K/9 from 10 to 13, albeit a worse K/BB ratio along with. On the other hand, a BABIP of .230 compared to a career BABIP of .300 is unsustainable, even when you factor in a much better defense behind him than in Toronto. This same BABIP regression has bit Ronel Blanco recently as well, but he's still been an effective pitcher, just not otherworldly like in the first few months. Ronel, since July 1, has an ERA of 3.71 with a FIP of 3.80, which is still an above average pitcher, but a clear regression to the mean. Before that, he had an ERA of 2.49 with a FIP of 4.44, completely unsustainable with a low K rate and high BB rate.
