So? 3 live BP sessions in Florida and then this 1st game appearance. Was anyone expecting him to help right out of the gate? Or at all this year? His Tommy John was 13 months ago.
Exactly. Most prospects are pretty far from where they need to be to excel in the MLB. It’s what I used to tell my kids when they were younger and competitive in middle school - “by adult standards, you are all weak and dumb. It is irrelevant who is slightly less weak and dumb at your age - all that matters is how you develop.” The rankings try to guess at trajectory, but they are very biased by where prospects are today and where they were yesterday (ie when they were drafted), neither of which matters very much.
My guess is Tucker won’t be back this season. Corresponding move will be to DFA Aledmys or option Leon.
If Tucker not coming back then I think Leon has to stay. We need someone out there that can reach home plate with a throw from over 200 feet.
They showed some like that recently. It was how many draft picks over a certain time period have graduated to the majors. If I'm not mistaken the Astros were at the top of the list.
They can someone shed some light on the Pacific Coast League and hitting stats? I’ve heard that Whitcomb’s homerun numbers are artificial to some degree due to the PCL. I’m trying to gain an understanding.
Almost half the parks in the PCL are equivalent to Coors Field. So yes,offensive numbers in the league are FUBAR.
Damn I phone. I showed not showered. One letter can matter? I’ve seen this with the draft and the astros do very well. That obviously an incomplete metric.
Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Jeremy Peña, Hunter Brown, Spencer Aragetti, Y. Diaz, etc I don’t think ever were in the top 100, and if they were they were barely making the list. Yet here they are playing at above average to elite levels. And every time I look at other teams box scores, i generally see an ex Astro playing MLB level, might not be a star but they are still chugging along. Astros value their players, but they don’t fall in love with any player to the point they are devoted with blind love. If another prospect passes the high draft pick up, they quickly move on and trade guys while they still have some value.
The evaluations get stuck in the draft time frame. The writers are slow to re-evaluate talent as it progresses through the minors. I suspect that the Astros evaluate all minor league players with a set of hard analytics, which are more predictive of future success. For example, if a hitter strikes out too much in college and lower level minors, he is not a top prospect. But if he figures that out, he instantly changes his projected future. The writers will not take that into consideration quick enough.
It's a few things, but definitely writers are slow to re-evaluate talent as you said. Prospect reports mostly just go off of what the prior report (and/or draft report) said plus/minor a minor blurb update. They very rarely scout with their own eyes. I personally think the biggest things differences between national prospect coverage and the Astros' own valuations are due to information asymmetry (which is huge) as well as the club's player development program. It would be a ton to ask of prospect writers to contextualize what individual prospects are actually working on. Likely when LMJ was in Lancaster, he was running a 5+ ERA. That's **** for a top prospect. But the Astros specifically had him working on particular pitches in a harsh environment and he wouldn't be getting credit for that from national writers. The other big thing is the player development program. The Astros price that into their evaluations whereas the national media cannot. Random Joe Prospect may look like a 2-3 star prospect to others but a 5-star to the Stros's. But national media writers have to list him as a 2-3 star prospect relative to everyone. Brice Matthews is a great example. He was considered a 2nd-3rd round grade by the national media, but Dana Brown thinks with some Astros polish he can be a star.
