I was pretty negative at the time on this trade because I thought they gave up more than they needed to. I understood that they probably had a plan in mind to improve Kikuchi's results, and probably had a different valuation on the prospects going out than I did, but I still doubted them. I don't know why I continue to doubt them on stuff like this. More often than not they prove pretty definitively that they know what they are doing. Certainly far more than me were I in their position.
Probably not Wagner by name, but the Blue Jays really like their 2nd generation players. It took more than Bloss and Loperfido, so if the Astros said no to Wagner, then most likely it would be someone else we would be having a similar discussion about. Wagner simply doesn't have the skills to be more than an average MLB player, and that's if everything goes right for him. Cavan Biggio is probably his ceiling and I certainly wouldn't be broken up about missing out on that.
I would take an avg MLB bat in LF or 1B right now. Put Dezenzo in LF and Wagner at 1B. I think he's going to be an avg MLB player because of his hit tool. All he needed was a chance. Biggio has had some hot streaks but overall has been a less than avg MLB player.
We will just disagree on this point. I will be (pleasantly) surprised if Wagner is able to achieve what Biggio has: over 500g @ 100 OPS+ w/ 250+ runs and 130+ extra base hits = 7.0 bWAR. I would put the over/under on career bWAR for Wagner at 5.0.
Another thing about Kikuchi, that I don't think has been mentioned, is his success against the Yankees. 2024 (3 outings) 4/5 @ NY 5.1 IP 0 R 4 H 7 K 4/16 6 IP 1 R 4 H 9 K 6/28 (one of the few bad outings vs NY) 5 IP 4 R 4 H 7 K 2023 4/21 @ NY 6 IP 1 R 4 H 3 K 9/19 @NY 5 IP 1 R 4 H 7 K Career 15 gms 285 PA 27 R 57 H 13 2B 0 3B 9 HR 72 K .682 OPS .380 SLG .302 OBP .224 AVG My friends who are Yankees fans hate facing Kikuchi because he's been extremely dominant against them. Something to keep in mind if we make the playoffs and potentially facing them.
Have to say, Yusei has been the real deal so far. I was sour on this trade initially, but I am changing my mind. If he continues to pitch well, this trade is a winner if: We get to the playoffs and/or he resigns. If we fail to get to the playoffs and he doesn't resign, then not so great a deal.
To me, the problem is not this trade. It was costly, but the Astros paid what they had to, and they HAD to get a SP. Might as well bite the bullet and get the one you believe in the most. The problem is the lack of a followup deal. They needed to add a bat or 2 and by not doing that, they made this trade much less likely to result in a successful season ( ALCS+ or bust). And if it's not a successful season, giving away assets is wasteful.
Maybe you mean 6 innings -- he's gone over 5 every start. His PC has been too high for 6 and 6+. Maybe he improves, but for now, he's been a godsend and playing well. With the addition of JV (hopefully) and 6-man rotation, it will lead to a domino effect of fresher, more effective starters. Six-inning appearances could be incoming.
Pitch count is one thing for sure but most of the jays fan coverage I read said he's really prone to the "3rd time to the order" effect.
High strikeout pitchers tend to have higher pitch counts so if Kikuchi gives us between 5 and 6 IP, that's a good start. I remember when McCullers would be dealing and striking out everyone but have 80 pitches through 4 innings. Those foul balls add up.
I know where you found yours, and I would have VERY much liked to have met him - my favorite. @Buck Turgidson
