So, Wagner is a really interesting prospect for me because I value hit tool above everything else. It is the most important by far to me. Wagner takes this to the edge b/c he has poor glove, fringe power, rag arm (which is funny b/c of his father) and not particularly fast. He has no chance to play SS, but can probably muddle through and not completely embarrass himself at 3B, 2B and 1B, and maybe LF? My thought is more or less anyone can play LF at MMP and somewhere Carlos Lee nods approvingly from his farm. So, the question is can Wagner develop any kind of gap power or get to 10 HR's and 30 doubles or something like that a year. Because if he could do that he could play 2b somewhere for 5 or 8 years and have a real legit career. Think- Rich man's Tony Kemp. If he can't do that then he better be as good with the hit tool as I think he can be and he can carve out a career as a fringe regular on a lower division team, or the 12th or 13th man on the roster on a good team. Which- cool- that's a living and good for him. He wasn't ever thought of as a big time prospect- so just getting to the bigs is a real win for him. I'm rooting for him to do well. I don't think we will miss him, but I wouldn't give him a way for nothing. Hopefully for him he makes us absolutely miss him- but if he goes and hits 300 with subpar defense and 5 HR's at 2b it's not like that was ever going to be a ticket for him having a roster spot here in Houston.
Deals like this always have a today/tomorrow component. The Astros are maximizing their window, which puts the focus on "today." I don't think anyone disagrees with that approach. So if Kikuchi is good, it has to be considered a win, even if the prospects blossom down the line. That's the cost of contending. And if they don't make the postseason or get bounced earlier than expected - but Kikuchi is good - that puts the burden on others, not this trade. IMO, it's only an L if Kikuchi isn't good. And even then, it's a conditional L because I can't fault the idea. They DESPERATELY needed a starting pitcher, and as his first two starts demonstrate, they saw a guy with the potential to not just fill that role, but do so successfully.
Do know know that Will pitched one inning of relief in the Astros minor and IIRC sat at 90+ mph? That makes for a strong and accurate arm ... for at least one inning in minor league ball, which is something most pitchers can not say.
There have been many very valuable players with this profile. Denny Wallling and Dave Magadan are a couple that come to mind. I would've given Wagner a shot in LF before I traded him. I guess Dana thought he was to slow to play in LF.
Some may say the Astros sold high on Loperfido. But Loperfido is on a typical trajectory for young players, as baseball is a game of adjustment. He faired decent upon his call up. But opposing teams can dissect a swing and exploit all the holes in a few weeks. And after the scouting report is tight, the MLB pitchers will hit that weak part of the swing 99% of the time relegating a decent hitter in the minors to irrelevant. It happens to the best of hitters, if they can’t counter adjust quick enough, they better be elite in the field to make it palatable for a team to justify getting them additional plate appearances. I think Loperfido will be your typical low 700 to high .600 OPS guys that can fill out the tail end of a batting order; he’s got above average defensive abilities which makes him an excellent bargain for any team wanting to pay extra money for a superstar at another position. I personally don’t think he’s going to be a player with an OPS in the high .700 or even the low .800’s. But if he does manage, the Blue Jays score a big win.
Did not know that. Jake Meyers threw 90 MPH on the mound in high school or college. He has a rag arm. Pitching velo doesn't necessarily equal arm strength in the field. Maybe I'm wrong on Wagners arm and it's not a problem. By far the least important of the 5 tools. I know he's considered suspect as an overall defensive package.
Meyers had a good arm until he tore up his shoulder in 2021, the fact he's still one of the best defensive CFs with a bum arm says a lot about everything else.
Jake Meyers should then been able to throw 90 MPH from CF in HS. Obviously now Myers has had injuries than limit his arm strength/speed. Looking at the Will's first major league hit (small sample size alert), he looked neither quick nor fast, which might make every routine play at 2nd an adventure even with an average arm.
Wagners arm is not his limiting factor. It’s range/quickness and consistency. That said, I think he can be a roughly average defensive player at 1B, 2B, or LF. So your point stands, if he hits for enough power, he will be an everyday player, otherwise he is a bench/AAAA guy.
Denny Wallling is who I compare him to. A very valuable player on a contender. It appears that their swings are very much alike.
I hope the giants are paid back for their stupidity with a late September injury to Snell that forces him to opt in and collect 33M to do nothing. I’m spiteful that way.
By this rationale, the Fields- Yordan trade was a win for the Dodgers. Fields was good for them in 2016 and 2 more years. They got to the NLCS that year and then the WS the next 2 years with him.
Wagner has a lot of that Ben Zobrist feel. Not a highly regarded guy. Questionable where he'll play defense. He does just hit at every step along the way. For me, the painful aspect of giving up Wagner is that he had the best potential of any near MLB-prospect to replace what Bregman does offensively.
Josh Fields was statistically the 3rd most impactful contributor to the Astros winning the World Series -- only behind George Springer and Yu Darvish.
He better hit for more power, like Ben Zobrist. That's probably a pretty good best case scenario for him.
Sweet. I always appreciated Denny. Walling played in a different era. Phil Garner lead the Astros in HR in 1982 w/ 14 In 1984 - 10 players in MLB had 30+ HR Wagner will need more power to survive in 2024+
