Abreu and Montero are dead money. There is no way for Houston to recoup any of it, even if they were willing to attach prospects. LMJ could be traded but Houston would have to trade significant prospects to get rid of his contract which would be counterproductive to the long term plan. The only way out of the hole without a miracle is if Crane is willing to go even further into the CBT tax for 2025 until he sees if Dana Brown’s farm is going to pan out.
LMJ/Abreu/Montero are coming off of the books after the 2025 season. You could almost cover 100 mil of Santander and Mountcastle contracts over the next 2 offseasons just be letting The Stros guys contracts that we're currently talking about that are currently on the books walk.
Alex, JV, and Pressly+ Graveman, Urquidy, and Kikuchi count just ABOUT $60M toward the CBT this year. How much in ARB raises will Framber, Tucker, Dubon, Chas, Garcia, B Abreu, Pena, and Meyers get? This year's payroll of $258.5M ( est. by Cots contracts) Altuve's AAV is going up by $1.65M $258.5M + $1.65M - $60M. Let's just call it $200M So $200M + Arb raises = next years CBT payroll before adding anyone. Next year the CBT levels are $241M/ $261M/ $281M/ $301M
This offseason, I would offer Kikuchi $54 million over 3 years, hopefully with the third year being a team option or vesting option. That replaces Verlander's salary. 2025 opening day lineup: C Diaz 1B Dezenzo 2B Altuve 3B Whitcomb SS Pena LF Alvarez CF Meyers RF Tucker Bench: Caratini, Leon, Dubon, McCormick I would let Dubon and Whitcomb battle it out for starting 3B to start the season. I'd start Matthews in AAA and as soon as he's ready, he gets called up to take over the starting 3B role. Then I'm looking hard into trading Pena, either during the season or in the 2025/26 offseason. I'd give Chas one more chance before cutting bait and going with Melton, who I think projects as an ideal fourth outfielder. With Yordan at DH frequently, a Melton/Meyers/Tucker OF defensively is absolutely elite. SP Framber SP Brown SP Kikuchi SP Blanco SP Garcia Bullpen: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, Scott, Arrighetti, Ort, Whitley, Dubin There is theoretically some extra money with Bregman leaving in FA, but I would rather only spend on starting pitching (Kikuchi or similar on a shorter deal) and see what we have with Matthews and Dezenzo. If those two don't become every day players, our future is in trouble regardless of whether they pay money to Chapman or Eugenio Suarez, so I'd be conservative with spending. If those two do break out, we are likely contending, and we will have the ability to add a LF/bench bat with a salary at the trade deadline.
As part of my analysis update yesterday, I compared the current organization roster (with an eye toward 2025) against the org roster from early 2015, when Houston's run really started (that's when they first made the playoffs and was when their run of tanking and high draft picks ended). Here's that analysis (I've bolded the spots I think are big differences in value): Spoiler: 2015 Astros Org Roster vs 2025 Astros Org Roster, Part 1 C: Castro vs Diaz; huge advantage 2025. Castro was good player but had just 2 years of control; Diaz is a borderline star and has 4 years of control 2B: Altuve vs Altuve: advantage 2015. Ironically, both players have 5 years of control remaining, but current Altuve is in his mid 30's and makes $25M/yr. SS: Lowrie vs Pena: advantage 2025. Pena is a slightly superior player to Lowrie, and both players had 3 years of control. 3B: Valbuena vs Dezenzo: huge advantage 2025. Valbuena wasn't a bad player, but he only had 2 years of control remaining at a good salary; Dezenzo has a chance to be a star, but is likely to be as good as Valbuena, and he has the full 6 years of control remaining. RF: Rasmus vs K Tucker: advantage 2025. Rasmus was a fine player, and had 2 years of control, but Tucker is a borderline MVP candidate, so even with 1 year, he is the more valuable player. CF: Springer vs Meyers: huge advantage 2015. Springer was a bonafide star player and had 6 years of control remaining. Meyers is a solid average everyday CF but only has 3 years left. LF: P Tucker vs McCormick: advantage 2025. Tucker was not a major league caliber player; McCormick has 3 seasons of 2+ fwar on his resume. DH: Gattis vs Yordan: huge advantage 2025. Gattis had 4 years of cheap control, and could play catcher, but Yordan is Yordan, and he has 4 more years. UT: Marwin vs Dubon: advantage 2015. Not a big difference, as they are similar players. But Marwin showed higher upside and had 4 years of control in 2015, whereas Dubon only has 2. C2: Conger vs Caratini: advantage 2025. Caratini has been awesome, so he's more valuable than Conger even though he only has 1 year of control left. 4th OF: Marisnick vs Leon: push. Marisnick was a terrific 4th OF and had 4 years of control left, but Leon is a very high upside guy who has similar tools to Marisnick. 13th man: Villar vs Kessinger: push. Pretty meaningless, although Villar ended up being a good player for other teams. Ace: Keuchel vs Framber: huge advantage 2015. Keuchel had 4 years of control in 2015, whereas Framber is a pending free agent. SP2: McHugh vs Brown: advantage 2025. McHugh was a quality SP, but Brown has far superior upside, and they both have 4 years of control. SP3: Feldman vs Garcia: advantage 2025. Garcia is a better pitcher than Feldman and is cheaper with more control. SP4: Straily vs Blanco: huge advantage 2025. I don't want to abuse hindsight, but Straily was a AAAA pitcher, while Blanco looks like he might be a workhorse 3rd or 4th starter. SP5: R Hernandez vs McCullers: I'm calling this a push based on McCullers' unknowns. But obviously hernandez was a stopgap crummy SP for 1 year while McCullers has big upside if healthy, although McCullers carries a big $ commitment. I don't have Javier anywhere on this list but he also has some potential value. SP6: Oberholtzer vs Arrighetti: huge advantage 2025. Again, I don't want to lean into hindsight, but Obie was not a major league pitcher, whereas Arrighetti looks like he could be a 5 inning SP3. Closer: Will Harris vs Hader: I'm calling this a push. Harris was not as good as Hader, but he was a helluva lot cheaper, and he came with 5 years vs Hader's 4 years. Bullpen: Gregerson/Neshek/Sipp/Qualls/Thatcher/Fields vs Pressly/Abreu/Scott/Martinez/Dubin/Ort: I'll say push, as none of these guys are huge impact players, and there's comparable quality. The 2025 group has more controllable talent. So for the major league 26 man roster, it looks like the 2025 roster has a better outlook than they did in 2015, although the dead money in 2025 (Abreu, Montero) mitigates that advantage. Now on to the farm (gulp): Spoiler: 2015 Ast2015 Astros Org Roster vs 2025 Astros Org Roster, Part 2 Top 20 Prospect list (subjective based on lists in 2015): 1. Correa vs Matthews: HUGE advantage here for 2015; Matthews looks like he will be a good player and his stock is trending up, but he is nowhere near the prospect Correa was. 2. Appel vs Whitley: this is an apt corollary using hindsight 3. Domingo Santana vs Jacob Melton 4. Vince Velaquez vs AJ Blubaugh 5. Michael Feliz vs Miguel Ullola 6. Colin Moran vs Shay Whitcomb: probably advantage 2015, but with hindsight we know Moran didn't pan out. 7. Brett Phillips vs Zach Cole 8. Teoscar Hernandez vs Luis Baez 9. Josh Hader vs. Ethan Pecko: I just picked a random AA arm with upside to match up, but Hader became the best closer in the league for a half decade. Huge advantage 2015. 10. Lance McCullers Jr. vs Ryan Forcucci: McCullers ended up being good, we have no idea if there's another one of those in Houston's system. 11. Derek Fisher vs Quincy Hamilton: Fisher was very highly thought of but he didn't pan out. 12. AJ Reed vs. Trey Cabbage: I'm matching these 2 up even though Cabbage isn't a prospect. Both guys had big power but didn't pan out. 13. JD Davis vs. Cam Fisher: advantage 2015, as Davis panned out to be a solid MLB hitter for a few years. 14. Joe Musgrove vs. Alonzo Tredwell: advantage 2015 for now, since we know Musgrove became a solid MLB SP. 15. Nolan Fontana vs. Pascanel Ferreras 16. Max Stassi vs. Walker Janek: advantage 2025, as Janek is a very good prospect, although Stassi panned out. 17. Frances Martes vs Abel Mercedes: Martes was a big time prospect in the following years but did not become anything in the majors; there's a bunch of arms with his velo but not his overall stuff. 18. Tony Kemp vs Jeron Williams 19. Brady Rodgers vs Colton Gordon 20. Jake Nottingham vs Miguel Palma Other notable prospects (using hindsight): 2015 C: Garrett Stubbs, Tyler Heineman: nothing crazy here, I feel ok that Houston has this level of catching talent in their lower minors 2015 IF: Tyler White, Jack Mayfield: again, nothing crazy, not worth worrying about. Houston may actually have some really good IF talent in their lower levels with guys like Chase Jaworsky, Caden Powell, and Camilo Diaz. 2015 OF: Jason Martin, Ramon Laureano, Bryan De La Cruz: Laureano and De La Cruz ended up being everyday players, with Laureano even having a star level season. But I feel good about Houston's OF talent level in their lower levels with guys like Kenni Gomez and Esmil Valencia. 2015 P: Daniel Mengden, Asher Wojo, Kent Emanuel, Bryan Abreu, Jorge Alcala, Adrian Houser, Jake Buchanan, JJ Jankowski, Josh James, Jandel Gustave, Chris Devenski, Akeem Bostick, Albert Abreu, Chris Lee, Mike Hauschild, Framber Valdez, Hector Perez, Ryan Thompson, Jose Urquidy, Elieser Hernandez, Cristian Javier, Franklin Perez, Hoyt, Kyle Smith, Danry Vasquez, David Paulino: It's amazing how much pitching talent was in the complex leagues for Houston in 2015. Framber, Javier, and Urquidy ended up being solid MLB SP. Devenski and Abreu ended up being valuable RP. Albert Abreu, David Paulino, and Josh James were all Top 100 prospects in later years. That said, I still feel like Houston continues to churn out these types of arms. So I'm not going to say 2015 has some meaningfully more positive outlook than 2025 in this area. That didn't look as bad as I expected. If Matthews was a top 10 MLB prospect instead of a fringe Top 100 guy, the farms would probably be very comparable. This analysis jibes with my prior opinion that the current farm is just 2-3 really good prospects away from being on par with the heyday. All in all this exercise made more more optimistic about the Astros' future.
I realized I left out 1B in my above comment. Chris Carter was the Astros 1B in 2015, and he’s about as comparable to Jon Singleton as they come, so that isn’t a meaningful difference. It’s also worth noting that the 2015 org roster doesn’t include 2015 draft picks or trade acquisitions, which of course was huge because that included Bregman, Tucker, and Yordan.
Where are you getting your numbers from? Alex counts $30.5, JV counts $22.54, Press $14, Graveman $8, Urquidy $3.75, and Kikuchi's partial year $3.39. That's $82.18 mil. I know you're just doing back of the tablecloth math but there's no way the increased contracts for current guys gets close to that number. Crane will have money to spend if he wants to do keep the payroll around the same level.
The number you are citing are payroll figures, not the figures from the luxury tax (AAV). Bregman counts 20 million for AAV, Verlander is 15 million?, Pressley is 15 million, and the others are correct. So about $65 million towards the luxury tax, which is what I think he is talking about
Bregman's luxury tax # for this season is 20 mil. His payroll salary is 30. The bonus he received when signing the contract was spread out along the length of the contract. JV luxury tax # for this yr is 15 mil. Astros paying him 22 mil (payroll) and the rest is paid by the Mets.
I'm thinking Bregman doesn't get serious offers that he wants and ends up sitting out much of spring and at the last min signs a 3 year with us, opt outs every year.
I don’t know. There are only a few players who project to be stars available in free agency: Bregman, Alonso, Adames, Kim, O’Neill, and maybe Teoscar or Santander. Essentially, Bregman and Alonso are really the only 2 franchise player level free agent position players available. Factor in that the Yankees and Dodgers both could stand to upgrade at 3B, and I think Bregman is going to get paid, especially if he ends the season on a high note. I do like how the free agent pitching market is shaping up. There will be a good deal or two in that group.
Neither Bregman or Alonso are franchise level players at this point. Alonso has never even posted a 5 WAR season and Bregman has been on the decline. He’s not even going to finish with a 4 WAR season this year. Regarding the Yankees, you forgot about the true franchise level star that will be a free agent - Juan Soto. They are going to have to back the Brinks truck up to keep him - there’s no way they are giving Bregman a big deal as well. Also, you could have said the same thing about last year’s free agent class that led to Chapman and Bellinger having to settle for the Correa type deal. Regarding Chapman, I’m sure he’s going to opt out as well given he’s on pace for a 5+ WAR season so teams will have him as an option along with Bregman. Edit: And I don’t think the Dodgers are a fit either - they don’t hand out stupid contracts. Even Freeman and Ohtani were extremely good for them when you consider the deferred money. Anyone willing to give Bregman a big contract is stupid.
People always forget about the taxes, meal money and “French benefits”. I think that runs something like 25M. It’s pretty significant.
Bregman isn’t a franchise guy anymore imo. Don’t disagree that he probably gets paid by someone, but I bet it doesn’t start with a 2 and have 8 zeros after it like he once thought was probably a lay up. I don’t think I’d bring Bregman back at his current number even if it was for 1 year.
Per Cots Contracts 2024 est. CBT payroll is $258.8M Bregman, JV, Kikuchi, A.Diaz, Graveman, and Ferguson are free agents which add up to $44.45M Urquidy will likely be nontendered for another $3.75M Altuve’s extension adds $1.65M. That leaves 2025 payroll just over $212 (at 2024 salaries for players in arb.) The 2025 CBT tiers are $241M, $261M, $281M, and $301M. And the penalties increase for 2nd consecutive year above 1st tier. Available: $29M until 1st tier $49M until 2nd tier $69M until 3rd tier Then figure Tucker, Framber, Dubon, McCormick, Garcia, B.Abreu, Pena, and Meyers will all get raises in arbitration
FYI. Verlander's 2024 salary is $43.333333M The Mets are paying $31.3M of it. So the Astros share is $12.033333M
I agree with this in general BUT I don't think the trade costs will be nearly as high in the offseason as they were at the deadline, and most years moving forward I think that will be the case. The issue at the deadline was way more teams in the playoff race than sellers. It won't always be the case, but with the new playoff system it will be more years than not. In the offseason all 32 teams are looking to make moves one way or another, and you add in the teams that can just go sign a big free agent which takes them out as a bargaining chip
