I have tried to figure out what is different about the Astros post Luhnow. It isn’t as simple as Click and Brown are not as good or that Crane now exerts more control because he doesn’t trust his general managers post cheating. I have concluded that there is a lack of organizational cohesion and a lack of focus. Different people in the organizational hierarchy have different visions for how to win and how to do their job. There is also a clear lack of efficiency as well. Under Click and now Brown, there have been a lot of wasted opportunities when it comes how the scouts see players, compared to the player development people, then the coaches on the field and last the front office. The obvious example with Click was between the GM and the manager. However, while Espada and Brown are on talking terms - I haven’t really seen the type of efficiency that existed with Luhnow. For example, why is Cabbage on the MLB roster and getting at bats? Why is Chas McCormick not playing? If Brown doesn’t like Chas either, then why wasn’t he dealt at the deadline? If Brown isn’t going to play Chas, then send him to AAA to get at bats. I see a similar issue as well with the player development people. At least Brown makes makes the final calls, but why was Leon down so long? Why isn’t Gusto being tuned up for the big leagues? There also appears to only be a loose idea of needs and targets. The Astros knew there was a 50% chance they would need a new first baseman and another outfielder last winter. Yet they did nothing about it, assuming they could fix the issue at the deadline. The owner essentially decides who will and will not be signed. He told Brown he wanted Hader. He also told Brown he wanted Verlander. The GM has essentially been marginalized to making smaller deals and the draft. The inefficiency and lack of cohesiveness has led to the Astros trading a future all star left fielder for a back up catcher - that the manager didn’t use and the players didn’t want. The advanced player development people didn’t want to trade the player either. Brown has control of the minors - but I have no feel for how good the lower level staff is. Brown can look at a kid and tell if he can play - but there is no real accountability. Next year is the last year of this group. 18 months from now Verlander, Valdez, Pressly, Montero and likely McCullers will be gone from the pitching side… offensively, Bregman, Tucker, Caratini and Dubon will all be gone. Alvarez and Altuve will be left, but Jose will be in his mid 30’s. This season and next should be cherished- and the lack of cohesion and efficiency already probably screwed up this season, like it did last year. They didn’t address 1st or DH or LF this winter or at the deadline and it will cost the Astros. Next year, there is no real excuse either. The holes are known - and they are fillable and they don’t have to be stars plugged in. It is still early for Brown - but my feelings for him are similar to those of Click. They both have their strengths but lack leadership and the sense of constant urgency that Luhnow had. At this point I personally would stick with Brown and see if I could bring in someone like a John Hart as an executive to work with Brown - that can make sure everyone has the same culture and buy in.
I get it but everyone knows the window is closing. We just got F'ed with injuries this season. I think everyone including the players have taken things for granted and think they can just turn it on.
First off...no matter what. I need Jim Crane to step away from the team and go back to trusting the front office that he's hired. I would also like to hear nothing from any personnel in the front office about the players/team unless it's directly from the GM/manager; I would like those people to stfu and make no comments.
Winning cures all, but man, can it cover up for a collapsing foundation. Jose has the chance to reach 30 PS HRs, and there's a real chance that his last one will be in a blowout game 7 loss at home.
It's 100% on Crane. He's kept this organization in constant flux since he fired Luhnow. It feels like there's been no cohesion because there literally hasn't been cohesion. He basically undercut Click constantly, then fired him. If he wanted to keep the organization running the same as Luhnow he should have kept Luhnow or one of his likeminded disciples. It's hard to know whether Click was ever gonna be good because he seemed to be fighting a war internally and the guy at the top never had his back. Then after firing Click, he hired a "baseball guy" in Dana Brown, who is seemingly the anthesis of Luhnow (more organizational changes needed). A scout who, while seemingly very good at it, relies more on tools and uses data to supplement not the other way around. Why wouldn't Espada butt heads with Brown a little, Dusty did it and the owner took his side. I just have no faith that Crane won't step on the next guys toes either. I was happy to see the Kikuchi trade in a way because at least it felt like the GM was actually allowed to GM, come what may. I think Crane very recently would have axed that trade just like the Urquidy/Contreras one. When Luhnow and Bo Porter had disagreement, Bo Porter was quickly shown the door.
It is hard to say whether things would be wildly different had Luhnow been retained. On the one hand, the original core of cost-controlled superstars was inevitably going to get older and more expensive, and between draft pick penalties, drafting later, and 7 straight buy-side trade deadlines, it’s hard to see how Luhnow would’ve acquired and developed a superstar that Click/Brown missed on. The only moves I feel confident Luhnow would’ve been against would have been signing Hader and Montero. But even unwinding those 2 deals doesn’t do much to change the Astros current situation. Without the emergence of at least two 4+ fwar/yr young cost controlled talents in the next 15 months, this run is over. This team will not be a true contender after losing Tucker and Bregman unless they replace them with equal or better players (not necessarily at the same position) who make less money. I will not trash Jim crane. He has gifted Astros fan with a nearly unparalleled run of success. He has poured money back into player payroll. He is responsive to his fans/customers. He is not perfect, but to this point he has been the best owner in Houston’s history and even if he ends up running it into the ground as he goes into old age, unless he does something reprehensible character-wise, his legacy is secure with me.
Wilyer Abreu…probably one of the rookie of the year finalists in the AL He’s actually playing RF, not LF as Nook stated, and grading out very well defensively there. In the 99% in arm strength so it’s actually worse given he would be a Tucker replacement.
I think he's referring to the Christian Vazquez trade with the Red Sox. Wilyer Abreu was one of the prospects in that deal and he's having a very good first full season at the big league level. At the time, it was fine. He was having a solid pop-up year at Corpus but has gotten better and better with Boston. Now this trade looks like a pretty significant loss.
It would've been different with Luhnow. Do you think Oz could've found another Framber, Javier, Garcia? I do. Do you think Luhnow would've signed Abreu, Montero, LMJ? I get what you're saying about Crane and he's been a great owner. What I don't understand is even if Manfred made Crane fire Luhnow, why didn't Crane just hire one of Luhnow's underlings and have the same vision, cohesion that was there when Luhnow was running the org? Instead Crane decided to go with the polar opposite of what made the org great when he hired Dusty and gave Dusty the most power of anybody in the org. To keep the good times rolling all Crane has to do was keep the status quo and for some reason he chose to change everything.
I suppose all dynasties that fall, have their reasons. And in retrospect, they were probably avoidable. Buts its the human condition to make mistakes, and for those in a position of power, they succumb to greed, egotism, mistrust or a myriad of other things that seem to take down the mighty.
Great post Lack of cohesion comes from Crane hiring Dusty and Click who go together like oil and water. Then running off all of the people (Not only Luhnow) that helped build this dynasty. Imagine what could've been if Crane had just hired Petula and kept running the org like Luhnow did. This team could've been great for another decade.
Quoted for truth. This usually happens when the status quo that works just isn't good enough anymore. I've seen this many times in business over the years, mostly when people who've started up a company and been very successful retire and turn their companies over to their kids who come in and change everything. Sometimes the changes are successful, most times they aren't.
I think Dana Brown is playing the long game. Sometime prior to the all star break, he should have realized that bad contracts and injuries will strangle the 2024 season and seriously impair 2025. If he oversees the Astros continue to win, he is a caretaker like Click. If he leads the team back after a down season or 2, then he has rebuilt a dynasty. JV, Tucker, McCullers, Javier, Graveman, Abreu, Montero, Garcia, and Urquidy count 98M against the CBT this year and this team is getting a total of 2 half seasons and 2 negative value seasons from them. How difficult was it going to be to overcome that? 2025 is actually looking like it COULD be a special year but they will still be hamstrung by over $30M in dead money coming off the top. Framber, Brown, Garcia, Arrighetti, Blanco and France SHOULD all start the season healthy with McCullers playing his usual wildcard role. I fully expect an addition as well. Everyone returns in the bullpen + Murfee and Sousa return. Bregman is the only position player gone and Dezenzo looks like he could be a fit to replace him. First base THEORETICALLY is the easiest and among the cheapest holes to fill on a roster. Leon, Whitcomb, and possibly Melton look to be options to upgrade LF and/or CF and could be auditioning to replace Tucker.
Or he could've added a bat or two and tried to win a championship today. Never count on tomorrow when there are championships that could possibly be won today. This doesn't mean you trade the entire farm for today but there were moves that could've been made. There are no assurances of playing the long game. How long have we been saying 1B is the easiest position to fill? Apparently this is a fallacy.
