This is the larger point to me. The Astros will likely readjust how they view the trade deadline next year. In the past the Astros have been able to get large leads in their division and get the benefit of not paying player for 60% of the season, then trading for useful pieces at the deadline and rely on them in the playoffs. The problem is that over time that has become increasingly hard because of how competitive the sport is, and there are fewer sellers - so the Astros can no longer assume that they can just fill holes at the deadline anymore - that goes for other elite teams as well. Look at teams like the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers scouting bottom of the barrel relievers and starters looking for something they can "fix". The Yankees just traded for a 34 year old reliever from the Cubs with an era approaching 4.50.... The Red Sox just traded for a 30 year old reliever with a FIP of nearly 5.00 ......... because the cost is so high and the available supply is so low.
That's EXACTLY why I was upset that they didn't address the need in FA. Overpaying at the trade deadline when you can just write a check is beyond foolish. Maybe that lesson will be learned, but I'm worried that championship window is closing more quickly than many believed 6 months ago.
It’s becoming clear with the new wild card added that having starting pitching available at the deadline is a luxury for selling teams. To your point, we absolutely should all be upset they didn’t add a SP in the off season. Even if they want to use the excuse “we could have never seen this coming” from an injury perspective, it doesn’t matter because worst case scenario we would have had too many starters. That would have been a really nice position to be in right now sitting pretty with the ability to move a SP for prospects to acquire a bat or to keep for the future.
There were plenty of educated people here, after they won it all in 2022, who said we didn’t need JV back and should trade another starter because we had so much depth. It’s amazing to think that was less than 2 years ago. Also reiterates that not only can you never have too much pitching, but that whatever pitching you do have will likely be quite different in 2 years. and yet fans still take for granted (or want to trade) guys like Framber.
Bloss 2G: IP-8, ERA-7.88, FIP- 9.78, BR/9- 13.5, K/9- 10.1 Kikuchi 2G: IP-9.2, ERA 10.24, FIP-3.78, BR/9-14.9, K/9- 13 3G: IP-14.1, ERA-10.05, FIP-4.2, BR/9-16.3, K/9- 11.9 Are we really getting anything different than what we had?
Teams looking to rebuild at all should start loading up on veteran SPs in the offseason and just unload them all at the deadline. Even if the Astros signed one SP each offseason giving them a chance to play for a winning team. Then ransomed them off for 3 prospects at the deadline once a year our championship window would never close lol
Agreed, but in fairness to the Astros front office - they are not alone, there are 12-14 teams all thinking they would get a starter at the deadline, and that includes some of the smartest organizations in baseball - Orioles, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Cardinals - etc. I will relate it back to Brown and Crane though because Brown specifically stated that they really hoped to sign a starting pitcher in the winter to go with Hader. They did look hard at Snell, but after seeing some contracts that #4/5 type starters signed, they decided to wait until the deadline and that back fired this year. On the Hader front, he hasn't been great - outside of the game yesterday, he has been pitching better though - but had the Astros not signed Hader, they would likely be in the spot of massively overpaying for a reliever at this deadline as well - some of the relievers elite teams are trading for are beyond projects.
The short answer is that no one knows. Look at Flaherty last year post deadline, he was HORRIBLE and there are other examples. It is a small sample size... What we can say is that Bloss would not have seen the field in the playoffs, and Kikuchi likely will because of his raw stuff. The Astros will attempt to work with Kikuchi to maximize his raw stuff and limit his dark side... does it work? IDK
Yeah, I deleted the Hader part after I saw what the Os just spent on Trevor Rogers. I guess the moral of the story is moving forward we should be looking at off season acquisitions differently. I’m not going to cry over spilled milk at this point…let’s just hope they really have a plan to get Kikuchi pitching to his potential. Based on what they’ve done with so many other pitchers, I’m not going to doubt them.
There is a good argument to be made- if the deadlines are going to be like this every year, that the Astros sign a veteran MOR or BOR guy every year and then use that depth to be able to trade a good pitcher running out of club control for a fantastic return. Imagine if this offseason we get Kikuchi re-signed, Brown and Blanco continue to pitch well, Arrighetti comes into his own and at least 2 of the 4 of Urquidy, Javier, Garcia and LMJ are good. The Astros could be looking at a situation where if they wanted to they could trade Framber for a really big haul and trade LMJ for a decent haul and still have a rotation that goes something like Brown, Javier, Garcia, Kikuchi, Arrighetti and anyone from the minors that has made a push forward. You could probably get a really really good RF of the future for when Tucker walks at the end of 2025- plus some other stuff. If you truly believe that the playoffs are more or less a crapshoot then it makes some sense to try to build as much depth and quality in the offseason as you can, run out to a hot start- guarantee yourself a playoff spot and then sell the surplus depth and quality you built up for more future value and then take your chances in the coinflip nature of the playoffs. That would take an incredibly ballsy front office and ownership group to actually knowingly make a really good team a little less good for future value- but I think it makes sense if you can stockpile that kind of depth. And yeah- Toronto might have fleeced us but they won a tactical battle while losing the war not trading and cashing in on their 2025 FA's while this market is seriously overheated. Really bad decision making by them.
Didn't we just go through this exercise with the bullpen yesterday? (that timely **** the bed?) They won't ever have too much starting pitching to just trade guys (while actively trying to compete). Even if they're impending FA's. I'm all for them trying to squeeze as much out of an acquisition every year though. Wade Miley's, Mike Fiers' (sorry), Odorizzi's, etc, but then trade the ones who transiently improved (While holding onto the ones that are still expected to pitch playoff games).
I think it's a middle ground suggestion- you stockpile and if things go well you get to trade for a lot more than you gave up and get a lot more future value than you are losing in future value. Is it likely that LMJ, Garcia, Urquidy, Javier, Framber, Brown, Blanco and say Kikuchi and Blubaugh in that scenario that I talked about are all healthy and pitching well? Of course not. But if you sign Kiduchi or a guy like that I guess that's one more bullet you have to fire and I sure would not hate to see Tuckers replacement with 6 years of control come back if it came down to it.
As much of a fairy-tale the moneyball movie is, they did get the part right that you can't just go and "replace" all-star level players. You may acquire 2-3 players to make up for their overall production, but guys like Tucker, Framber or even they mythical "healthy" LMJ just won't be plug/playable. But I agree... they can make a killing just signing guys like Miley, Kikuchi, Odorizzi and flipping them (or do the same with bullpen guys... would have been a savage move to trade high on Scott this year).
I'd have definitely sold high on Scott if I thought I could get a guy that would help down the road at 3B or something like that. Like Scott and Presley for Mayo from Baltimore if that would be possible. Bam- done. Then hope you get JV and Garcia back and that Whitley is workable or something like that but you've got 3B taken care of until 2030 in all likelihood. No idea if Baltimore would do- but I'd try. They gave up a lot for less.
When analyzing a trade, the system the prospects come from doesn't matter, nor does the position they play, except to you apparently, since you have made the same claims multiple times. Yes, Baltimore has a better system overall - so fu**ing what? Yes there are position similarities - so fu**ing what?What matters is the quality of the prospects. Fangraphs rated Bloss as a 50 grade prospect, Loperfido as a 45 grade prospect, and Wagner as a 35+ grade. They rated Baumeister as a 40+, Horvath as a 40, and Etzel didn't even make their 35+ cut. MLB rated the Bloss and Loperfido the same (50 and 45 respectfully), but rated Wagner as a 40 grade. MLB rated Baumeister and Horvath both at 45, and Etzel didn't make the list until after the trade where he is rated as a 40 grade prospect. *It is pretty clear that both services think the Astros gave up the better prospects*. It could be argued whether Eflin is the better pitcher or not, but career statistics give him a slight edge and he does come with an extra year of control, albeit at a higher salary. As to your claim that Kikuchi will provide better results *in 2024*, I certainly hope so. I am an Astros fan, so I root for them to win, as I do for every player on the team. However, if Kikuchi continues with the results he has achieved recently, he may well be a detriment to the Astros, and the thread that "I have grown tired of Yusei Kikuchi" will soon appear.
