How did the Yankees get Jazz? Honestly, a lot of teams wanted nothing to do with him. The Marlins and Rays and A's are also very weird and particular about which prospects they want in a trade... those teams rely little on outsider evaluations.
Yes - I am not saying fans should like the trade. I don't like the trade, but it wasn't a case of the Astros being taken advantage of - it is the case of the market being VERY suppressed. If anything - I think fans should be upset that the Astros decided to not add another starter during the off season. They discussed adding one, they knew there would likely be a need, and they never added one - and as a result they have lost three possible useful prospects. Had the Astros signed Lorenzen, they would not be in this position.
This idea, I think, informs at least some of the reaction to the Kikuchi trade. Name-recognition plays a BIG role in how we evaluate trades of players we mostly don't know much about. Jazz Chisolm has not, other than a short 60-game season in 2022, been a very good Major League baseball player. But he's on the cover on MLB The Show and has received a fair amount of coverage because he's young and exciting so, wow! The Yankees got him?!?! Maybe he figures it out and is a huge win for the Yankees. Likely worth a flier. But the likeliest scenario is that he'll continue to be a mid-MLBer.
Hate the trade. For a bum. But I guess the market was that shitty. We'll see if Dana quits pissin himself today and does anything useful. Good post though.
If the playoffs weren't so watered down there would be more to choose from. 4-9 w/a 4.75 is almost laughable though.
It could be several things with Bloss - I think the most likely scenario is that Brown, Dickey, Miller and Murphy got to see him in person, see his practices and see his games and concluded that his stuff wouldn't likely ever be a #1 or #2 starter. That doesn't mean they did not like him or wanted to trade him, just that he had some limitations to keep him from being a star. So - when it came time to trading, the Astros protected some others in their system that they think could be better (Mike Ullola) over Bloss. It still hurt them giving him up, but not as much as someone else. Bloss was promoted in part because the Astros needed a starter. If everyone was healthy, he wouldn't be in the rotation or big leagues. From everything I have been told - Miller and Murphy's opinions go a really long way with Brown, like they did with Click.
All valid points. With the different playoff structure it is always going to be a seller's market, and an expensive one. That is why it always bothered me that for two offseasons in a row the front office did not address any starting pitching depth, instead going with a "we already got these" approach that didn't work last year, and they should've known wouldn't work this year either. The initial failure was the offseason, which is now compounded by overpaying for mid (at best) rental starters.
Given Michael Lorenzen sucks, I'd argue not much would've changed. But, yes: it's maddening the Astros thought JV, Framber, Javier, Brown, France and Blanco were a good enough rotation.
I think thats a tad biased on your end... if a player with anywhere close to his ability was on the Astros, we'd be as high on him as anything based on current production (both now and for the future). He's had a good yet injury-riddled start to his career on a bad team. He's got quality tools, athleticism, and still a lot of raw ability that had him fast-tracked to begin with. He's essentially the same age as Loperfido as well, lol. The only red flag I could interpret is the injuries... but seems like it was more bad luck/misfortune vs. him being made of glass. Obviously he was available for a 'reason'... reminds me a lot of when the Astros acquired Cole, except he had less controlled years and was thought to be even more "he is who he is" at that stage., at best a #2 or #3 type. The point is, smart front offices recognize undervalued or 'on sale' type bargains that can easily pay dividends (hell, they already have for the Yankees), and he's under club control til 2028 as a CF lead-off type.
The Jimenez and Torres were vastly superior prospects to what the Astros traded.... Torres was considered the best of his international class, and Jimenez was crushing in the minors. This trade may turn out to be a disaster for the Astros - perhaps Loperfido turns into Dale Murphy or Bloss becomes John Tudor - but neither is in the same class of prospect as the Cubs dealt.
If you want a Pollyanna view of this trade, it’s there. Houston acquired a playoff caliber SP without giving up any prospects who projected to be in the top 10 on their 2025 list (both Loperfido and Bloss were on track to graduate this season). Houston dealt from their areas of depth (OF and pitching). They addressed their primary need without giving up any of their 5 highest ceiling position player prospects. The 2 primary prospects in the deal were not even on the radar 24 months ago. None of the players the Astros traded away projected to be big factors in 2024, or really even 2025. Assuming everybody gets healthy, Bloss likely would have started next season in AAA, while Loperfido would have been battling for a spot at the bottom of Houston’s order or on its bench, if not being sent down to AAA. Loperfido is in a tier of player with McCormick, Singleton, Cabbage, and Dubon, not Tucker, Bregman, Alvarez, or Altuve. Wagner was on the fringe for Rule 5 protection and may very well have been lost for nothing this November. In my projections for opening day 2025, the real difference is that Cabbage and Kessinger make the Astros’ roster, while further down the system there are mild impacts of more aggressive promotions, lesser prospects playing more, and more chances for minor league free agents to fill the AAA spots that would have gone to Loperfido/Wagner/Bloss.
I'm biased... how? He's very tools-y and fans tend to love tools. But if Jazz was posting a 103 OPS+ since 2023 while battling injuries, I mean... I'm not sure he'd garner a significant amount of patience with us. He's 26 years old with 1,600+ MLB plate appearances. His career OB% is .310; OPS+ is 103. Sure, a guy like that might be worth a flier - but this idea the Yankees STOLE him seems incredibly overblown and likely rooted in his name recognition.
Or, in reality... there is a market for players who are deemed to be "underperforming" based on their potential because they may be either mis-utilized or just in shitty situations. We've seen first-hand what the Astros, in a different era with different front-office decision makers, have been able to accomplish by exploiting that specific market (Cole and Morton off the top of my head.... ) They didn't steal him as much as they actively went out and got him. Nobody else was trying to get him. I'm sure the Marlins were also not necessarily looking to trade perhaps one of the 3 or so players that the 5,000 or so season ticket holders there preferred to watch for 81 games. The point of this is not to single out Jazz... but to highlight the sort of "outside the box" trade that smarter front offices tend to execute or seek out moreso than other teams. By no means are the Yankees some mensa-level front office, and they've made more than their fair-share of mistakes/blunders/overpays... but I'm all for deals that clearly help franchises fill needs both now and for the foreseeable future (and this gets Judge out of CF and is insurance for their oft-injured infield). And there are times where talented players with skills/tools just do better under a different organization.... we see this in all sports And maybe (wishful thinking) Kikuchi is Morton 2.0... or Cole-lite... or he's just the japanese version of Odorizzi.
I think it all just comes down to a number of factors leading to the worst buyers market for starting pitching in recent trade deadline history. There are only like 5-7 big league starting pitchers available; There are over a dozen teams thinking they will get a starter; The Astros have had a lot of injuries to starting pitchers; The Astros are in a dog fight to make the playoffs; The Astros best starter this year - Blanco is pitching too many innings; The Astros failed to trade or sign a starting pitcher last winter. The Dodgers, Braves, Mets, Padres and Orioles all are still trying to get another starter - Add all that up and it explains why the Astros #1 felt they needed a starter and #2 why they had to pay what they did for a starter.... The last point I would make is that the Rays are really smart - they looked at this market, they recognized it was an extremely suppressed market and they dealt some of their guys for good returns. The Rays got a really nice return for a starting pitcher they wanted to dump this winter anyways. The Blue Jays and Rangers are really stupid - they had a number of pitchers that they could have moved in this market for an excellent return and they largely did not do it. The Jays would have gotten an absolute haul for Bassett and Gausman and Guerrero. Instead they only moved one starter. As for the Astros - I think they are kind of stuck because they did not add another starter in the Winter and are in a dog fight - the M's added an impact player in Arozerena and a useful player in Turner - the Astros need to add a bat. If they can get Diaz from the Rays, they need to do it. It stretches their line up and also gives them a cheap starting 1st baseman in 2024.
Jazz has talent and he may become a star in NY. It was a good gamble for them - but there are a lot of teams that just didn't think he was very good and did not like his antics... to me it was a no brainer for the Yankees. As for the Marlins, they sold low on Chisolm, but still got a good prospect and another guy that may prove to be a starting 1st baseman down the road. I
This is a great case study of nickel and diming free agent starting pitchers during the offseason and putting your eggs in the Lance basket of two seasons of missed play. Why would you think a guy who misses two seasons would be guns blazing this season. They passed on so many mid to back end rotation guys. All this just to give away talent.
With so many teams now making the playoffs, this is just the way it will be moving forward. Instead of 15 teams picking over the top guys from the other 15 teams. You have 24 teams looking at the guys from the other 6 teams. They should move the trade deadline back some if they want to level the trade playing field. This is not an issue in the NBA or NFL because the teams know they aren't contenders, regardless if they are in the playoff hunt. Not many in season trades at all really in the NFL. MLB, anyone can catch fire at the right time and win the World Series. I see the trade deadline getting less and less active as teams realize that the value just isn't there and with so many teams hedging their bets and not wanting to throw in the towel.
I agree with your overall point, but other teams are not and have not been making deals that represent the level of poor value that the Kikuchi trade represents. We’ll see how today shakes out, but so far I think this is more just Houston not getting good value, even relative to the current market.
