I will not finish updating till a few days after the deadline but Brito was already at 19 on my list. He my wind up a few places higher or lower but will not change relative to remaining players on the list.
Given the low value return they got, it's hard to not think Brown was never all that high on Bloss or Loperfido. The fact that the Astros presented Loperfido at his best defensive positions and not the one where he was clearly needed (1B), he was hoping to maximize trade value all along. Given what we got it's hard to say he succeeded at that. Maybe I'm reading too much into this as cope, but I think Blubaugh and Leon are the guys he actually likes and the MLB promotions were smokescreens.
All we can say for 100% certain is that he traded the players he traded to get the player he wanted. We can all call it an overpay (and I personally agree), but we can only assume he made that trade because it's the only way he gets a player he wanted. My spin: I don't think it has to do anything with DB not liking Bloss or Loperfido. Or thinking that Blubaugh and Leon are better prospects. I think DB is purely doing an arbitrage move. I.e. he's banking on the present value of Kikuchi being worth more than the difference of 12 years of team control of Bloss/Loperfido vs 12 years of Blubaugh/Leon. These are rough numbers off the top of my head but the expected WAR of a back top 100 player (Bloss) over team control years is like 2-3WAR total. For someone like Joey (fringe top 100) closer to 1 expected WAR over team control years. Replace them with Blubaugh/Leon (expected WAR combined is prolly 1 WAR with huge error bars). It's not a massive difference IMO. And I assume DB is banking on his own scouting prowess and the Stros' player development team to paper over a lot of mistakes. All that being said, I do still think it was an overpay.
Alain Pena and Wilmy Sanchez were also moved up to Asheville and Luis Rodriguez is heading to Fayetteville from the FCL.
Wilmy Sanchez has given up zero home runs in 37.2 innings in Fayetteville. Likely to give up some in Asheville, but that is an impressive stat. Only given up three in 105 innings as a pro. 13.4 k/9 in Fayetteville this year. Only 20 years old. Not a single game started this year but has gone two or more in 9 of the 22 games pitched.
This signing also apparently happened, but it hasn't shown up on the transactions pages yet. Backstrom, 22, was drafted in the 19th round by the Braves in 2019. He was released last May after slashing .179/.273/.359 with a homer and 6 RBI in 12 games at Class A Augusta.
Interesting. He would have been in the Braves system when Dana Brown was there, so he’s familiar with him. Rare non-bonus HS signee, and he hit well in A ball in 2022 at age 20 (albeit with a high k rate), so it seems like they just weren’t patient with him. Big kid at 6’5” 220 and played 1B in the Braves system. He was hitting .350 with 12 HR in 45 games with the independent league team. Houston’s farm is totally barren at 1B so maybe he’ll be something.
Orange team beat the Blue team 2-0 even though they only had one hit. Sandro Pereira had a sac fly and scored on a wild pitch. Jose Serrano allowed three hits and struck out four over six innings and Eudy Liriano allowed a hit and struck out the side to complete the shutout. Esteban Romero went 2-3 with a double for the Blue team. He's a 17-year-old outfielder who was born in California but signed out of Mexico on January 15.
A couple more FCL arms are on their way to Fayetteville: Joan Ogando was 2-2 with one save and a 6.08 ERA in 11 appearances (2 starts; 26.2 IP total). A 20-year-old RHP from the Dominican Republic who signed on January 15 last year, Ogando allowed 26 hits (1 HR), walked 10, and struck out 33. Opponents were hitting .252 against him. Rafael Gonzalez, also a 20-year-old RHP from the Dominican who signed on January 15 last year, was 1-1 with a save and a 3.44 ERA in 7 appearances (3 starts, 18.1 IP total). Gonzalez allowed 13 hits (.194 average against), walked 9, and struck out 25.
Melton has been showing some nice EVs since he was called up. 108.8 tonight on a lineout. Gusto threw 6.2 scoreless, seems like he's ready.
Gusto has 4 er over his last 30.1 innings. Looking at baseball savant for his previous 4 starts, it’s hard to know the secret to his success. He’s mixing 5 pitches. His fastball is only 94 and doesn’t move much but he gets a good amount of swings on it outside the top of the zone and it rarely gets hit hard; when it does it’s not in the air. It’s hard to say if that success will carry over to the majors but this consistent of a run in AAA means he’s at least figured out how to have success against that level of hitter, and all that’s left is to see if he can get that same stuff to play in the majors.
It's really bad from a value standpoint compared to the Eflin and Flaherty deals. I'm not sure why they felt the need to ship out one of our only 50FV guys for a good but hardly dominant SP. Reminds me of the Montgomery deal last year in some ways, and maybe seeing the Rangers win off the back of a guy like Montgomery colored Crane's thinking on this and surely he was placing pressure on Brown to get something done. I just don't like the lack of creativity. Kikuchi seemed like the obvious guy (no way the Astros would get the BEST option available in Flaherty) and that's who they got but more for than they should have paid. In the past guys like Luhnow and Click would (not always mind you) zig instead of zag if the obvious deal was a ripoff. This more or less feels like GM'ing on autopilot or something.
Also, on Bloss, is anyone else a little disappointed in his stuff+ since his arrival? Obviously a very small sample, but really nothing that impressive to be found there which might explain why his K rate took a nose dive once he got above A ball.
