Seems like a stereotypical Astros homework project: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/player/125512/yusei-kikuchi/ Much ink has been spilled diagnosing Kikuchi’s stateside misfortunes. Well-documented are his NPB workload and MLB’s slipperier, less-tacky ball; speculation abounds regarding how Kikuchi has attempted to reconcile the latter. His scattershot changeup, woefully underused, remains his best pitch. Everything else, he grooves, and what Kikuchi grooves, hitters torch. Since his 2019 debut, among pitchers who have thrown at least 7,000 pitches, no one has aided opposing hitters’ exit velocities more. The numbers get even uglier if you factor his changeup out of the equation. DRA graciously sees a league-average-ish starter, and other home run-adjusted estimators view Kikuchi through rose-colored glasses as well. But while it’s tempting to chalk his struggles up to bad luck, he earns his poor results in part through shoddy pitch selection. Until and unless that changes, his MLB career will feel increasingly unsalvageable.
