I think the leash will be incredibly short - IF he is here by the start of the season, I really think it's possible he's moved before the season opener. This team has too much talent that behind Jalen to sit around and let him flounder for another season.
Not sure FVV is the floor - FVV is a very good player. I think Reed will be a much higher percentage shooter. Really think the Mark Price comparison is quite accurate. At his peak, I think Mark Price with lots of steals and blocks.
Do I think Reed's floor is being a good point guard, a good defender, and good three point shooter who makes at least one all star appearance? Yes I see that as his floor. His ceiling is much higher.
Prior to SL he had doubters saying he'd be slightly better JJ Redick. After watching him hit every single shot imaginable the tune has largely changed to being something akin to CP3 or better Kirk Hinrich. Even Cam when interviewed said his shooting was straight up stupid. Out of all of our prospects, he's the only one that you can look at after Summer League and not have to squint a little bit to see it. He's just got it at such an advanced level for his age. I'd say Amen was probably second but the sample size was so small. I think even prior to Summer League he had the Rockets brass gushing based on what Stone said in the press conferences after the draft.
Every draft pick this year has a floor of "not in he league after rookie contract". Until they play a NBA game, that's their floor.
All star appearances are so subjective. A lot has to do with team success. And the west is crazy stacked. FVV made it in a weak eastern conference for one season. There were a lot of more deserving players in the west that didn't make it. Reed could be better than FVV and never make an all star team.
Can you imagine the b****fit this kid would have thrown if someone said Jalen Green's floor was "not in the NBA after their rookie contract"? The cult cried their eyes out for years because i said Jalen Green's floor was a 13 year NBA vet....
Technically, this is the floor of any player on rookie contract without an extension. Including all the Rockets youngsters. It's a pointless assertion because people don't use absolute "what if he suffers a career ending injury or forgot how to shoot like Fultz" floors when discussing players.
"Baring eny catastrophic injury or severe off the court life altering situation" I think most of our young core like Sengun, Jalen and Jabari have cleared that floor. They will be in the league barring those things happening after their first contract.
By your logic, why even bother discussing floors/ceilings then? Every player has the same: Floor: out the league Ceiling: MJ There. Done.
Unless Reed Sheppard is some generational talent, before playing a single NBA game, his floor is out of the league after his rookie contract. At this stage of their careers it's more productive to talk about what they can be l. Is Reed Sheppard's ceiling a all-star absolutely. Saying his floor is a all-star guard who played a large role on a championship team is kinda unhinged.
If ceiling is projections, so is floor. People project ceiling all the time before the player has played a minute of real NBA games. And those projections change according to their performances in the league. By your logic, every draft pick has a ceiling of GOAT and a floor of out of the league after rookie cpntract. I'm pretty sure that's not how you look at draft prospects. edit: @duluth111222 said the same thing before me.
Saying that every draft pick has the floor of being out of them league after their first contract is not the same as saying every player has a ceiling of being a goat. How have people become this unhinged? Do people understand basic probability and statistics. Every year there are players drafted in the top 10 that are out of the league after their first contract. Every year doesn't produce a goat. There is generational talent like Wemby who even if he did horrendous his first three years there will be a team that will be like "we can fix him". Because he's that level of talent to hope you can fix. But most talent is not like that.
Look, the fact that so many people immediately pointed out the flaw of your logic should get you to ponder what they said. Instead, you are backpaddling. You were not talking about probability. You said EVERY drafted player has that same floor. Do you really believe that every player has the same floor? Really? If so, then it is you who doesn't understand probability and statistics.
