Arozarena is basically on a 2/32 deal after this year is over with (he’s a super 3 so he has arb 3 and arb 4 left). What would that deal look like? Chas or Jake(their choice)/ Leon and melton enough to get it done? I’d do that for sure. Chas or Jake/ Loperfido/ Melton? Is this enough? Too much? I’d do those deals.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-introduction-and-honorable-mentions/ Tucker, Pena, and Hunter Brown were all honorable mentions on fangraphs top 50 trade value list this season after being in the top 50 last year. Framber Valdez fell off the list. I’m assuming Yordan will be on the list but at this point he is probably the only Astro who will make the top 50 which will be the first time since 2015 that Houston has only had one player on that list. If you’re looking for evidence of the run ending, that’s probably the best there is.
Pretty much. By that list Houston still has 4 of the top ~110 surplus value players in the league; that assumes Altuve and Yainer Diaz will not be on the list. That also doesn’t include Meyers (a top 10 CF with 3 years of control), Blanco (a SP who should have been an all star with 5 years of control), or either of their 2 controllable elite RP (Abreu and Hader).
I think that's enough talent to get it done, but I don't see them wanting 3 OF. Pitching is king - I can't see a deal that doesn't have at least 1 pitcher.
Yeah especially considering Tampa’s current roster and farm system. Of course Tampa is always looking for pure value, but they need pitching way more than position players.
Huh? The only thing that would keep Robert from being a star is Robert or injuries. He is 26 years old, and for his career so far has averaged 5.5 WAR per 162 games, and that is while playing hurt and clearly sick of losing in Chicago. He has had an OPS+ of 110 or over every season and he is just entering his prime. Consider that he has ZERO help in his line up, the next best hitter has an OPS+ of 88. I don't know what you mean by "aim higher" - adding Robert to the line up would be a massive upgrade. Robert is a plus glove, plus arm, plus power and has hit in the post season as well. As for Fedde - I don't know what the future holds, but I know he can get you innings - has an era of sub 3.00 and a FIP of 3.60 Both Fedde and Robert are financially affordable as well. FWIW The Astros are the most aggressive for Robert, but they are not the favorites to land him. The Dodgers have a strong interest as well and have a deeper system. Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker/Robert/Diaz - that is a monster 6 .... with Pena at the bottom of the line up.
It is hard to know how much the Astros would value Arozarena. He is a mediocre fielder and poor base runner and strikes out a lot - but still has an OPS+ of like 120 the last 3-4 years. His salary is likely going to double, but is still affordable.... so the Astros get a 6-7 hole hitter that stays healthy and can be lethal with the bat for a modest salary. I don't know what the going rate in prospects would be for him - if I had to spit ball it, I think he is a prime candidate to go to the Mariners, who are desperate for bats, have an angry fan base and really need multiple bats.
Because we suck/are average in LF and he’d make us a lot better? We can stand to improve at 1B AND LF. I’d take Rooker before I take anyone else on the block (no idea if he’s on the block) even over Vlad. A healthy lineup for us is: Altuve Yordan Of or 1B Tucker LF or 1B Bregman Diaz Peña Meyers that 6-9 makes us a really good lineup. When those guys are hitting 2,4,6 and 7 we basically suck.
Chas is a straight up replacement for Arozarena in that scenario and then they have 2 guys that are fringe top 100 talents battling it out and hope they hit on one. That would be my thought. If they both hit then they could trade the other for pitching at a later date. But that would be assuming they like them.
He has overall been a consistent and solid player from season to season - he is a 3-4 WAR player and is under team control for two more seasons at a relatively low number. The Astros would have Arozarena and Tucker as their corner outfielders set next year. If they held onto Meyers, their outfield would largely be set for the next few seasons ..... would allow them to trade several of their top prospects, and then hold onto the one or two that they think are the best long term in the outfield. So in theory the Astros could trade McCormick/Arrighetti for Arozarena. The Astros then plug Arozarena in left field and run out Tucker, Meyers and Arozarena as their outfield this year and next. That would in theory then allow the Astros to trade a couple of outfield prospects for a starting pitcher - so let's say that Brown decides that Melton and Baez will be sent to another team for a #3 starter under multiple years of team control.
I mean, ok. I'm fine riding Joey/Trey/Dubon in left and keeping Spencer. I just don't by the situational decision that Arozarena solidifies the outfield more than anyone else. I have a feeling that I'm not gonna love the next week or so. Sigh.
Randy is better than Joey/Trey/Dubon - at least that is the argument, based on history. I don't know if I would pay the cost necessary to get Randy, but I can say for sure I have less than confidence in Cabbage, Dubon or a rookie Loperfido. The reality is that the Astros are most likely a better offense with Randy in left field.
It still amazes me how short many careers are. A player can hit 30+ HRs one year and never again hit even 15. They can have 3-4 decent years then have one bad season and are never heard from again. Not sure how much it is of the league adjusting to them, or perhaps that player not correcting themselves enough to the league as they age. Could also be their bodies just simply can't sustain a full season and wear more rapidly. Makes players like Altuve seem that much more remarkable as it really is an anomaly.
Seems to enjoy the big stage too. 33 postseason games (113 ABs): .336/.414/.690 38 hits, 11 HR, and 17 RBI
Everything you said -- plus, guys stop "trying hard" after success, especially after getting paid. Professional sports is hard. I had a conversation with a guy in Colorado in 2014 who played against George Springer in the minor leagues -- same year George first played MLB games and was ballin while doing so. He mentioned Springer before I did. He said Springer was AWESOME. His exact words were, "You don't understand how *good* you have to be to even make it to MLB". George had great success with the Astros... got paid, then fell off. There could be other factors (injury, family distractions, etc) regarding his Toronto production --. but most likely, George's effort level isn't the same in Toronto as it was with Houston (and the minor leagues) prior to his big contract. This is a major reason why longevity matters in sports, HOF candidacy, and in life. People can do well over a short period (and that success has value), but how long can you sustain it ??
Cool story and very true, and why I feel MLB needs a years cap on contracts. When you have guys like Pujols that crush the ball until they get their guarantee pay, then suddenly look like they're 45 years old, that's an issue. to be fair, Pujols may have really been 45 years old when he went to the Angels
