I don't bet, but I say he will, notwithstanding something unexpected (that's not due to a current pre-existing condition). You should elaborate more about why you think so. I guess you think he's actively in poor health or mental decline to the point where he can't continue.
Happy to elaborate. What we know (I believe these are non-controversial facts): He is 81 years old. He clearly has been in accelerating decline. The extent of it can be debated, but it could not be denied anymore, even by his most ardent supporters. The Democratic establishment wanted to see him replaced. A statement was put out on Twitter under his name that he is withdrawing his candidacy for another term. The Democratic establishment decided on Kamala Harris as their candidate. Why I think he will not serve out his term (this is my interpretation/speculation): It's still half a year from now until January 20, 2025. We have not seen him for almost a week - even his withdrawal announcement was only made on Twitter, which is highly unusual for an announcement of this magnitude. He has clearly not been writing his own Tweets, in a long time. When we last saw him, although he was in visible physical/mental decline, he seemed defiant, and determined to not let go of his candidacy. All of a sudden, a statement was put out that totally contradicted his previous stance. To me, this strongly indicates there might be something more severe going on with his health than we have been told. If his decision to no longer be a candidate was based on his visibly declining health, the logical question is - if you are not fit enough to be a candidate, are you fit enough to still be President? As he declines further - which I expect to happen rapidly - this question will be asked more every day. Whether he ultimately made the call himself or he was forced out, or a bit of both, doesn't change one thing: He is no longer the candidate, Kamala is. He is the lamest of lame ducks at this point. He is already history. From now on, it's all about improving her chances to win the election. Being President makes her the incumbent. Traditionally, incumbents have a bit of a bonus in elections. So I think the Democratic establishment will want her to run as President, not as VP. It would also give her a chance to already elevate her running mate's profile. tl;dr version: He is either already in such poor mental/physical health that he cannot continue as President for much longer, or even if he could/wanted to drag his departure out to January 20, 2025, this would not be in the interest of the Democratic establishment, who have now hitched onto the Kamala bandwagon. So I predict they will find a way to have her take over soon.
Uhoh. Looks like someone is a little triggered. Get some rest and have a nice breakfast. It'll be fine.
I got covid this year and didn't feel like talking to my own damned wife or kids for like 10 days let alone addressing the entire nation.
This is the most likely explanation. Getting COVID and having to leave the campaign trail was the wake-up call that he shouldn’t continue. Even though many here think Biden is an idiot his political instincts have been good. He wouldn’t have been able to be President after two failed campaigns. Nor would he have been able to get bipartisan legislation passed. He’s stubborn also and has a vast amount of ego. He never was going to just leave but it took a physical reminder that he might not be up to it. Given how much unexpected stuff has happened I won’t say for certain that he won’t finish his term but I’m leaning towards he will.
Some of the non-controversial facts are misleading. I might come back later and respond to each of your points, or I might not It's only 6 months left, and he won't be invisible during that time. We'll see soon enough.
By the time the Republican convention started, the Trump campaign was sure Biden would not step aside. They didn't even pivot a bit during their convention, just in case. They picked a VP likely based on arrogance, going for a blowout, instead of a VP who could attract moderates and swing voters. All this tells me that they didn't believe he had a health or mental issue, and at the same time, they can't see a man capable of doing what he did. Now that he actually did the unthinkable, some might be left with the belief that he had some health crisis, when the simple explanation is he finally saw the writing on the wall and did what a courageous, selfless man would do: step aside for his party and his country.
