The models are drawing consensus on landfall between corpus and matagorda bay https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_tracks_latest.png
The issue with these models and projections is they aren’t taking in to account how hot the water is. They are using historical data and we are in a record heat wave for this time of year. This thing has been sliding north for a reason. I suspect cat-3 matagorda/houston area. I just hope it’s a quick mover and not a situation like Harvey where it stalls over Houston.
Water is actually slightly better than it was last week… so theres at least that. The more storms get followed with innacurate projections, the more we all realize how inexact a science this still is.
Somewhere between Port Aransas and Matagorda Bay. Seems like the forecasts have stopped moving it north/east like yesterday.
Yes, it's inexact, but normally still pretty good. But these are not normal times. There are no norms that hold anymore. Like a lot of things with climate change, the conditions are changing so rapidly that our experience and models are outpaced and increasing uncertainty results. Yet it's difficult to explain all the variables and added complexity to the general public and when a forecast is not on the mark, it creates a situation where the next forecast is not as accepted. It's a tough spiral meteorologists are in and it's the same space a lot of people, like wildland firefighters, architects, engineers, biologists, farmers and many others are in as well. It's very difficult to imagine, calculate, prepare for, communicate, and mitigate the changing conditions we have right now and much, much tougher to think through what's coming.
Damn. The predictions of our rain total in CTX is shrinking. Really hope it hits further south on the coast.
Hurricane model accuracy has increased like 75% over the last 30 years. The average margin for error on where a track will hit on a coast is down to 60 miles 48 hours out now.
Sargent isn’t very far from Freeport…and Freeport is where Alicia came in. That seems less than ideal for Houston. Of course, Baffin Bay is south of Corpus so that’s a huge stretch of coastline under warning that makes it pretty clear how uncertain this forecast is
FIFY. I always suspected this thing would be closer to our neighborhood than originally forecast. We're right in the middle of two high pressure systems. A perfect trough of low pressure to draw in the storm.
