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The Stock Market, will 2024 be like 2020 ?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by adoo, Dec 8, 2023.

  1. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    That's good pick. How much you bought it for?
     
  2. whag00

    whag00 Member

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    $132
     
    cheke64 likes this.
  3. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    Are we buying chewy or nah?
     
  4. adoo

    adoo Member

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    avg cost of my 2 15-pt spreads on AAPL is $5.58;
    on Fri, AAPL closed at 226.34, the spreads are now worth ~~$9.4 each
    i think the stock price will be trading above 230 way B4 the 1 Aug earnings date; on that basis, i placed limit sell orders to close both spreads, at $10.7 each, exiting on the way up
     
    #84 adoo, Jul 6, 2024
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2024
  5. adoo

    adoo Member

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    AAPL just traded above 231; my limit sell orders got filled.
     
  6. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    With Trump's election looking probable, the stock market may have another leg of growth in front of it in 2024. The market is very supportive of Trump's pro-growth economic policies, inflation-busting track record, and lower tax policies (no tax on tips for instance).
     
  7. MexAmercnMoose

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    excellent analysis, would read again
     
  8. adoo

    adoo Member

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    on 30 July

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    in view of the fact that, on this past Monday, NVDA had closed the 95 -102 gap; 62% retracement is ~~ 94, decided to make a play on NVDA

    i have a bullish outlook for NVDA; think that it will be way above 150 by 2026

    constructed a 10-point bullish CALL spread

    • buy-to-open the Dec 2026 95 strike CALL contract for $37.10 (the long leg)
    • sell-to-open the Oct 2024 105 strike CALL contract for $11.30. (the short leg)
    • net cost of $25.80

    as NVDA rises to near 105, will buy back the short leg and, simultaneoursly, sell a CALL with a higher strike with an expiration further out in the future, as long as i get to collect a premium.
    will keep on rolling on the short leg foreward

    ideally, by Dec 2026, i would have collected premium of more than $25.80, w a bullish CALL spread that covers more than 55 points

     
    Sajan likes this.
  9. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    earnings on 8/28.
    i am bullish also. even with the market turbulence, hanging around $100 is a good sign.
     
  10. adoo

    adoo Member

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    nvda trading ~~109, the short leg (105 strike CALL) is already in-the-money; have to roll it forward to a higher strike CALL.

    simultaneously,
    • buy-to-close the Oct 2024 105 strike CALL contract (old short leg)
    • sell-to-open the Dec 2024 113 strike CALL contract (new short leg)
    • netted a premium of $1.05,
      • which reduces my cost to $24.75 (25.8 - 1.05)
     
    #90 adoo, Aug 12, 2024
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2024
    MexAmercnMoose likes this.
  11. adoo

    adoo Member

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    lagging technical indicators just confirmed a change in direction to the upside; up 17 points over the past 5 trading days, NVDA is gathering momentum for an upswing

    just rolled fwd to another higher strike CALL again; simultaneously

    • buy-to-close the Dec 2024 113 strike CALL contract
    • sell-to-open the Mar 2025 120 strike CALL contract (newest short leg)
    • netted aother premium of $1.25


    so my bullish CALL spread has morphed to become a 25-pt spread

    Long Dec 2026 95 strike CALL

    Short Mar 2025 120 strike CALL​
     
  12. adoo

    adoo Member

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    NVDA trading above 114;

    just rolled forward the short leg to Jun 2025 124 strike CALL, collecting a premium of $2.05​
     
  13. adoo

    adoo Member

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    2 days ag, NVDA closed ~~116, +7

    rolled forward the previous short leg to Sep 2025 130 strike CALL contract, collecting a premium of $1.25

    my original 10-pt CALL spread on NVDA has morphed into a 35-pt CALL spread, in the process, collecting about ~~$5 in premium.


    my current play on NVDA

    Long _ on Dec 2026 95 strike CALL
    Short _ on Sep 2025 130 strike CALL
    just rolled that Sep 2025 130 strike CALL forward to Jan 2026 134 CALL, collecting a premium of $2.65​
     
    #93 adoo, Aug 15, 2024
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2024
    MexAmercnMoose likes this.
  14. adoo

    adoo Member

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    rolled forward the short leg twice, to the Jan 2026 140 strike CALL, netting a premium of ~~$2

    my current play on NVDA, a 45-point bullish CALL spread, net cost ~~$17.85

    Long _ on Dec 2026 95 strike CALL
    Short on Jan 2026 140 strike CALL

    NVDA closed at 130 today
     
  15. adoo

    adoo Member

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    rolled forward the short leg, to the Dec 2026 145 strike CALL, netting a premium of ~~$2.80

    my original 15-pt bullish CALL spread has morphed to be a 50-pt spread, net cost of $15.05

    long on the Dec 2025 95 strike CALL contract
    short on the Dec '25 145 strike CALL contract​

    i have spent $15.05 for the opportunity to participate in a potential maximum reward of $50
     
  16. adoo

    adoo Member

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    NVDA beat estimate for earnings and revenue'; also​




    nevertheless, w after-hours trading at ~~ 129, NVDA is down ~ 10 points since the close last Friday

    \_(ツ)_/¯
     
  17. adoo

    adoo Member

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    correct the typo, my current 50-pt bullish CALL spread, costing me ~~$15.05 is

    long on the Dec 2026 95 strike CALL contract
    short on the Dec '26 145 strike CALL contract
    NVDA is trading ~~114, my spread is worth $18
     
  18. adoo

    adoo Member

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    T I M B E R !

    the news of its screwed-up with the MAX 737 continues; Boeing's Starliner spacecraft is stuck in space.



    have made a plan on this dog, constructed a 40-pt bearish CALL spread

    using Feb 2025 expiration,


    • buy-to-open
      • the $155 strike CALL contract
    • sell-to-open
      • the $195 CALL contract
    collecting a premium of $22.2 up front to assume the maximum risk of $40;
    on Feb 2025 expiration, should BA trade below $155, i get to keep all the premium


     
  19. adoo

    adoo Member

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    from the most recent low of 100.9, stock price has risen to 107

    the 50-pt bullish CALL spread is worth ~~ $16.45
     
    cheke64 likes this.
  20. adoo

    adoo Member

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    ~~ 3 wks ago



    from the most recent low of 101, 6 trading days ago, NVDA is trading at 119.

    the new up trends looks intact, decided to make another play

    sold this15-point bullish PUT spread, using Nov 15 expiration day; next earnings will be 11-22-24
    • buy-to-open 110 strike PUT contract
    • sell-to-open 125 strike PUT contract
      • collecting a premium of $7.23 in advance.

    m assuming the potential max risk of $7.77 to win $7.23;

    should NVDA closing above 125, by Nov 15, both contracts will then be worthless,
    and i get to keep all the $7.23 premium that was collected in advance​
     
    #100 adoo, Sep 13, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2024
    Sajan likes this.

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