the point wasn’t that he would invade France. The point was America won’t be an ally to Europe. Poland is the nation concerned about putins invasion. I was stressing that there is no shot a Trump presidency would defend Poland. Learn how to process an entire argument. stupid.
Complete agree - Russia/China alliance is soft. EU is a big market for China. If Putin starts pissing around in Eurpoe and disrupting that market, those Chinese exports into Russia will dry up quickly and all Putin will have left is glider MOABs. Effective but won't get you much land gain.
I don’t think even if Trump Is President and Ukraine falls it is likely Russia invades Poland. I think it is very likely he takes the Baltic states and presses for major concessions from Poland, Finland and other countries.
How does he "take the Baltic states" - they are each as armed and equipped as Ukraine, as motivated, oh and Russia hasn't even achieved 10% of its strategic goals in Ukraine,has suffered millions of casualties and is now recruiting cannon fodder from North Korea after 3 years.
They are much smaller than Ukraine and if the the US and NATO is unwilling to arm them or defend them they are very vulnerable to Russia. Further in Lithuania and Estonia there are large Russian populations and following the pattern used in Ukraine Russia could first foment internal dissent in those countries and start arming separatists. If NATO falls apart and the US becomes isolationist I would consider the Baltic States as the frontline for Russian expansion. To note the post you are responding too is premised on that Ukraine falls because they no longer have NATO or US support.
Ok Risk king. This is the same real time strategy dad stuff that told us Ukraine was doomed in 3 days But it's definitely in Putins / @glynch / MAGA interest to present these things as fait accompli - that way they don't have to actually do it and fail.
Plus, if anyone uses their eyeballs and see where and how large Latvia or Estonia is on the map, they can blitz into the capital far more easier just by repeating the initial thrust into Kiev. When shock and awe works, there's not much incentive by international governments to bargain from the fallen government's position. Those bodies have to start from the ground up while the invader consolidates and pump out messages of liberation or reunification. "Taking them back" with force is even further out as an option. Thinking of past events where this has happened is far and few in between, and last I checked, those nations don't have valuable resources America wants to corner...
Why are you parroting BS Rs talking points? BTW when did Jill take over the puppet master duties from Obama? Birds aren’t real!
I doubt the Nordic states, now in NATO, are just going to give concessions. Same with Poland. Russia have been increasingly probing for weaknesses in their systems. Also the Baltic states are in NATO.
Russia is not going to attack any NATO nation if NATO is still intact. If NATO falls, there are far greater issues than this Russia fear mongering.
It isn't THAT crazy but it isn't simple either. Russia invaded Ukraine almost 30 months ago - and they have taken about 10% of Ukraine, but there is no doubt that Putin expected to have more of Ukraine by the point, if not full control. Now - this can change quickly if the US cuts off support and the people of Ukraine change their stance on the invasion, but at this point we have to take it like it it. Whoever wins in 2024 will only be in office for one term and their party is VERY likely to lose the election in 2028. So, if Trump wins - and withdraws support to Ukraine, Russia has to make quick advancements in Ukraine AND attempt to invade another nation all within four years if he wants to take additional land. Why? Because the Democrats in four years are not going to stand idly as Russia theoretically advances into Europe. The best bet for Putin is that Trump is elected - he cuts off support to Ukraine, and he withdraws from NATO. Without support from the USA, Ukraine falls in a year or two and then without NATO support from the USA, he can invade some Baltic Nation and attempt to take it before the 2028 election. Really - the "prize" here for Russia is still a big one (Ukraine) and it can change the fortunes of Russia, but it will be very difficult for them to start carving up Western Europe without support from CCP and that support would need to be troops on the ground.
No - Russia probably will not attack a NATO nation, but if the USA has pulled out of NATO and Russia is successful in taking Ukraine, it is possible. It really isn't Russia fear mongering, they are actively involved in trying to take Ukraine. We can make a calculated guess that Russia will stop, but we do not know once there is an active invasion.
The GOP has made very clear that it is not intending to ever lose an election again and that they will deploy the full force of government (courts, law enforcement, executive branch) to do this, not just Proud Boys and other thugs, though they will undoubtedly be a component of it. They already tried in 2020, and the Roberts Court (which, btw, seems to have at least 2 active insurrectionists on it) has given them its sign off to do it even more - this prediction will not age well.
Yeah i respect the heck out of @Nook 's opinion but I do find that thought to be lacking imagination, and a tad bit naive. If Trump wins in November there's no way he's leaving on his own will in 2028 if he loses to the Democrat nominee. Even if he steps aside at the top of the ticket for whatever reason, he's still going to be the defacto emperor of the Right. The entire party identity of half of the country is Trump. He is not going away, and you'd be foolishly naive if you thought this Supreme Court would step in and deem it illegal for him to run for a 3rd term. If Trump is still alive, he's going to be running the Republican party which isn't really the Republican party anymore. It's a cult with entire loyalty pledged to Trump. Also... even if SCOTUS rules he cannot legally run, he now has the latest ruling where as long as it's an "official act" he can break the law. So all he needs to do under the SCOTUS guidelines is use some executive order under some national emergency, etc. as reasoning for running again. Then there's the military and DOJ which will be completely remade as a political tool to serve Trump. Even if Trump isn't legally able to, there's no way he won't have the power to press through, and ultimately use the courts to force states to put him on the ballot. I do agree politically, Trump will be extremely unpopular, and wouldn't be able to win a normal Democratic election, but the fact is we simply will not be a true Democracy in 2028 if Trump does what he says he will do, and what SCOTUS has done by sanctioning a dictatorship.
Russia REALLY wants a land bridge to Kaliningrad, just about as much as they wanted a land bridge to Crimea. Whether they 'pull the trigger', i don't know, but I 100% guarantee you they would invade Lithuania they thought they could get away with it. And their "judgement" the last few years seems to be suspect and doesn't appear to err on the side of caution. Same thing they did with Crimea before moving on to the rest of Ukraine. They try to divide their meals up into managable portions, saving the rest for tomorrow. They want to finish Ukraine before moving on to the next thing.
The general fear among NATO diplomats is whether Putin would force an Article 5 crisis by invading a smaller Baltic state and daring thermonuclear war over a captured capital. It appears unlikely especially whether Trump really does tell Putin that he'd use nukes first in the back channels, but that's what the foreign policy press is messaging while hard right Russians like Medvedev have claimed the Baltics are under their sphere of influence.
Recent developments. What Putin was doing in the North. Why the US relaxed restrictions for Ukraine firing into russian territory
