I mean, he's raking right now and he's 25. I think he's a stud and he's exponentially better than any 1B we have on the roster. Is he 2021 Vlad? No...but he's not 2023 Vlad either. I think he's going to average .850 - .900 OPS for the next 5 years.
He will really help the lineup after Bregs walks and he's been hitting the ball as hard as he ever has. The Crawford boxes and Vlad are a match made in heaven. IMHO
I'm all in on the Astros getting Vlad; he'd be a tremendous get and he's one of my favorite non-Astros players. But an .850-.900 OPS might be setting the bar a little high. There are only 9 players in all of MLB with a .900+ OPS. And, honestly, he doesn't need to be *that* good. If, certainly over the next tear-and-a-half, he settles into the .800-.850 range, he'd be a significant upgrade to the line-up.
The Astros have been the winningest team in baseball since they got rid of Abreu. In a couple of weeks they are going to add an genuine league MVP candidate to the lineup in the form of Tucker who has been absent throughout this run. I would prefer not to see this clubhouse messed with any more than necessary.
I'm worried that VJR will end up in pinstripes. Their need at 1st seems just as great as ours. I hope there are options out there - Yandy, Goldy, Christian, Josh . . . . I don't want Pete.
what prospects do the Yankees have left to trade? Wells, their vaunted offensive C has been a dud. Jays wont want Volpe unless they offload Bichette
Luis Robert Jr Garrett Crochet For Spencer Arrighetti Jacob Melton Pedro Leon Miguel Ullola Michael Knorr Alberto Hernandez. This is a huge haul to give up, but Astros are adding MVP/Cy Young level talent controllable for 2 more seasons. The White Sox would not trade guys w/ 2+ controllable seasons unless they get guys w/ even more control. They are early in a lengthy rebuild and 2-3 years until they are competitive feels optimistic. Melton is currently the gem of the Astros system, but by getting Robert and keeping Meyers he can be replaced before he is needed. Arrighetti is a young controllable starter who misses bats and has shown enough to have a high floor while still having a #2-3 type ceiling. The White Sox are very active in scouting Cuba so I'm sure they are familiar w/ Leon and Hernandez. Leon has 3-4 star level tools and is finally breaking out in AAA. He is ready for an MLB audition but no place to play in Houston. Hernandez is a 20 yr old SS who has shown a good eye and glove in Fayetteville but still a ways away with lots if uncertainty. Fangraphs ranks him Astros #4 prospect ahead of Matthews. Ullola (mlb#20/fg#11) and Knorr (mlb#15/fg#16) were both in Baseball America's top 20 of Astros prospects as of June 2023 (I haven't seen 2024) and give the White Sox 2 more chances to hit a 2nd contributing pitcher.
They've played 13 games since DFA'ing Abreu. It would be remarkably foolish to apply greater meaning to those games than the previous 70. Not to mention, their post-Abreu pace is 137 wins. This team still has issues. Standing pat, and not addressing those issues, would be a mistake. They need a reliable, healthy SP; they need at least one more reliable bullpen arm; and I think they need at least two more bats as their line-up is much too streaky. I'm not ready to assume Meyers, Dubon, Singleton, Diaz, Pena are all going to be threats in October. This is not a deep line-up. In terms of clubhouse... when has that *ever* been an issue with this group? They have added players nearly every year, and there's been no issue. Even Abreu, by all accounts, was not an issue.
We actually have an extremely deep lineup, it could be better but depth is the least of our issues. We can field league average or better bats 1-9 when healthy. If Bregs and Yordan were at their normal levels it's the best offense in baseball, Abreu, while I agree had no clubhouse issues, was basically giving away an entire position and that hurt..quite a bit.
That's objectively not true. Singleton and Pena are both currently posting sub-.700 OPS. Our first bat off the bench - Chas - has a .617 OPS. Building a playoff line-up around those 3 + Diaz, Dubon & Meyers - when we know how streaky Altuve and Bregman can be - would be foolish, IMO.
I personally don't want to be overly active this deadline. Biggest issue on offense is 1B, but would let Loperfido be the regular there, with Cabbage backing him up. Would like a RHB to platoon with him though, other than Dubon, but price needs to be right. Adding an arm is always good, but every team needs arms. I just have a hard time seeing a good trade out there.
If this team makes the postseason the bats will all be reduced. Superstar bats become star bats Star bats become average bats Average bats become below average bats. There are exceptions, but by and large that's how it works. Pena is the only current Astro with a better wRC+ in the postseason than regular season (122 vs 99) but he was bad last year after being unworldly in 2022. *Altuve is too but less than 1% 131 vs 130 so I call that equal not better. On average they have been about 10% better in regular season than postseason. (Post vs reg.) Alvarez 157 vs 163 (-4%) Chas 102 vs 115 (-11%) Bregman 117 vs 134 (-13%) Dubon 70 vs 89 (-21%) Tucker 97 vs 137 (-29%) Meyers 68 vs 96 (-29%) So this team having a roster of a few star hitters and a bunch of average hitters is a problem in the post season
If he only was around during the fly ball revolution. He hit the ball hard, but it was 5 years of Tucker's first 100 or so PAs when he hit the ball hard, but on the ground right at people. A very frustrating player as he was a good player that could have truly been great. Though, I liked that he helped Dierker when he had his stroke.
The regular season is long. You face below-average pitching the majority of the time. The Astros' line-up is good enough to win in that context. I do not believe it is, as currently constructed, good enough to definitively win in the postseason, where you're facing the top of most teams' rotations who can work around the Altuves and Tuckers and Yordans and exploit the Meyers, Diazs, Singletons, McCormicks and Dubons. I would love for them to add two high-end bats. But I feel strongly that they need at least one and then hope at least one other can catch fire at the right time.
To get a player in the caliber of Vlad Guerrero Jr. you need to put together a haul of top 10 top 20 MLB prospects. Astros have good minor league players, but are razor thin on the high end prospects. They may have one player rated in the top 100, and he’s somewhere in 50’s in the rankings. unless the Astros are trading some of their ML club stars, because they don’t want to pay them, acquiring Vlad may be a little too rich for what the Astros could offer. But I’d be stoked if the Astros could pry Vlad from the Blue Jays, without hurting the core group of guys.
This. Hard to say HOW good their front office is, but it is definitely good and has the best resources in all of baseball by a long shot. They pay their interns, scouts, nutritionists, trainers, coaches and front office people like 50% more than any other team. So they can get the best, and that is from their lowest scout to the minors and through the majors. There is a reason they consistently win and produce talent -
The good news is that the Blue Jays would likely be more interested in young MLB or MLB ready guys than younger prospects, unlike a team such as the White Sox. Toronto will want to reload for another run in 2025. That's also why I think they may trade either Bichette or Vladdy but not both. And possibly neither. Guys like Loperfido and/or Leon are probably more attractive than high ceiling guys in A or high A ball.
The Astros have reached out to the Mets numerous times and the asking price has been high - and now the Mets are winning. I don't know what, if anyone, the Astros add at the deadline, but I can say that Brown has put in the leg work. The Astros are one of the 3-4 busiest teams this year when it comes to trying to make a trade. Yeah, he has been one of their top 2-3 offensive targets with Robert and to some degree, Alonso in NYM. The Astros likely are excited by his possible upside and the fact that he is controlled through the 2025 season.
