What are the chances that Altuve does not become a first ballot Hall of Famer

Tuve will get in, he is nice to reporters. Maybe him and Justin are the only ones going in from the 2017 roster maybe Carlos Beltran.

 

Probably 100% chance he's not first ballot. It'll take a few years if not most of his eligibility. The national MLB media and reporters have come around to understanding Altuve didn't participant and was against it but most of the HOF voters are not national reporters. There was a thread about the Chronicle's new Astros beat writer taking shots at Altuve last year because as far as she knew, Altuve was a major part of the cheating until she was personally educated.

 

Chase Utley hit 220/360/410. A 770 OPS with 10 HRs and 27 RBIs

Dustin Pedroia hit a whopping 230/313/374. A 687 OPS with 5 HRs and 25 RBIs

Jose 273/340/510 851 OPS with 27 HRs 55 RBIs 89 runs...

Come on man.

 

I don't understand this mindset at all.

 

I think the HOF voters will keep him out until his final year or two of eligibility.

BUT, if this Astros hater can change his mind...

 

He has a HOF vote?

Twits on Twitter don't get to choose.

 

I like how you constantly behave/pretend "strong", while simultaneously being a fool.

Liquid courage

Altuve is already a HOF on-field and stats, TRUE -- the problem is the trashcan effect.

Hopefully everything works out in Houston's favor.
.

 

I think he'll undoubtedly be punished and left off early ballots.

Having said that... the tide is absolutely turning. More writers have offered (very) soft mea culpas; he continues to do well in All-Star fan voting (which, doesn't mean anything, re: HoF - but does indicate fans simply don't seem to care about the scandal so writers won't have to tip-toe around it); and - I did not realize this: he finished 5th in MVP voting in '22. I think that might the clearest indication yet that the scandal will be *an* issue (they'll mention it; maybe withhold a vote or 3) - but I don't think it'll be an issue, if that makes sense.

Also, once Beltran gets in (and I think he will), there'll be no viable excuse to keep Altuve out.

 

I'm not yet convinced he passes the "hit by a bus" test. I think he's *very* close... But, man: 2B has a very loooooooong history of players just falling off a cliff in their early 30s so it'll be interesting to see what, if anything, he can add to his resume.

Pedroia is eligible this year. I think Altuve has a better case - but not by as much as you might think. Pedroia played 14 seasons; Altuve is playing his 14th season. Pedroia bWAR: 51.9; Altuve 51.5. Pedroia has 3 rings, an MVP, a ROY. He's another 2B that hit his 30s (33) and just drove right into the ditch and was done by 35.

Very curious to see how he does. Again, I think Altuve's case is *better* - but I think Pedroia results will at least illustrate where Altuve is *right now* and maybe give an idea of what he needs to do to cement his case.

 

I think as it sits today, no way he is 1st ballot and maybe 50/50 to get in at all.

Altuve vs AVG HOF 2b
WAR= 51.5 vs 69.7
WAR7 = 39.8 vs 44.5
JAWS= 45.7 vs 57.1

The good news is he still has time, as he is under contract for 5 more seasons.

He is on pace for 4.3 WAR this season and the typical regression due to age is -0.5 per year.

2024: 4.3
2025: 3.8
2026: 3.3
2027: 2.8
2028: 2.3
2029: 1.8

WAR: 18.3 (-2.1 from 2023 already counted) = 67.7

WAR 67.7 vs 69.7
WAR7= 40.1 vs 44.5
JAWS= 53.9 vs 57.1


Keep in mind that's AVG HOF not lower end.
WAR would be 10th of 21
WAR7 would be 13th
JAWS would be 11th

The next 5+ years along with his post season resume gets him in. As long as he plays those 5 years.

But I do agree Beltran's status will effect it some.

 

LA and NY writers will stop him from getting 75% in year one...

 

The fans hate Altuve more than the writers do...

 

The fans outside of Houston and many writers still haven't forgiven Altuve. At last year's playoff games here in Target Field there were many people still calling him a cheater, even though they were more than happy to cheer on Correa.

It will take time and when Altuve retires I think there will be a big effort by former teammates and others to step up saying that Altuve never cheated and deserves the HOF.

 

He finished 2nd in MVP voting last year. He’s a finalist for All-Star starter.

There’ll always be boos - but the narrative around him has undeniably changed for the better. And while I think he may be punished, and have to wait a year+, I think he eventually going to sail into Cooperstown.

 

I think the fact that Altuve is about to be a 9 time all-star makes him hard to keep out. He's also got 2K hits, which I think is what separates him from Utley & Pedroia. I feel bad for Utley because having to wait in AAA for so long very well might have cost him the HOF. Pedroia had his fair share of injuries, but it was knee that did him in. Given they just signed him to that extension, you'd hope Altuve does not have a similar issue.

 

I guess the only other thing to consider is who else is on the ballot at the same time? Since writers have a limited # of votes, and there's always bias against not letting too many people in at the same time, it can sometimes be hard to predict how the voting will go.

I think with advanced stats, more transparency, etc., I'm actually happy the HOF is a bit more selective. I think if it was just a fan vote, almost every all star would be getting into the HoF, and then it's just not that meaningful.

 

It's the funniest thing that this Astros legend (already) is going to be the starting 2nd baseman at the All Star Game for the American League.

The fans voted him to go back to the stomping grounds where he's letting the ****ing Rangers know......this is my ****ing house, not Adolis's.

 

Forgiven him for what? Fans are, in general, complete ****ing idiots.

Writers, at least the ones who matter (BBWAA), have a different mindset.

 

I hope so but living out side of Houston I tend to get a different view.

It won’t surprise me if I hear boos for Altuve this weekend at Target Field.

 

Spoiler

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5615041/2024/07/05/baseball-hall-of-fame-active-players-hof-case/

IN RIGHT NOW
Mike Trout
Justin Verlander
Max Scherzer
Freddie Freeman*

(*new to the In Right Now Club)

INJURED LIST DIVISION OF THE “IN RIGHT NOW” CLUB
Clayton Kershaw
Joey Votto

IN THE RED ZONE
Mookie Betts
Paul Goldschmidt
Bryce Harper
Nolan Arenado
Manny Machado

ACROSS THE 50 (FUN NEW CATEGORY!)
Aaron Judge
Shohei Ohtani
Jose Altuve

MOVING THE CHAINS
Gerrit Cole
Juan Soto
José Ramírez
Francisco Lindor
Carlos Correa

GET BACK TO ME IN FIVE YEARS
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
Gunnar Henderson
Adley Rutschman
Julio Rodríguez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Yordan Alvarez
Corbin Carroll
Emmanuel Clase

LET’S TALK NEXT YEAR
Jacob deGrom
Corey Seager
Christian Yelich
Alex Bregman
Marcus Semien
Xander Bogaerts
Yu Darvish

STILL ALIVE (SOMEHOW!)
Giancarlo Stanton
Chris Sale

CLOSERS CORNER*
Craig Kimbrel
Kenley Jansen
Aroldis Chapman
Josh Hader

(*could all be sending thank-you cards to Billy Wagner next January)

CATCHERS CORNER
Salvador Perez
J.T. Realmuto

GRADUATED
Miguel Cabrera
Adam Wainwright
Zack Greinke
Evan Longoria
Nelson Cruz
Madison Bumgarner

NOT PICTURED ANYMORE
Wander Franco
________________________________________

VERLANDER AND SCHERZER: Do you really need me to burrow into why Verlander and Scherzer are the lockiest locks ever? Three-time Cy Young Award winners always cruise into Cooperstown on the first try*. Guess how many Cys these two standouts have won apiece? Yep!

(*Wait. Not you, Roger!)

ALTUVE: In an alternative universe, Jose Altuve would be sitting up higher on these charts. He’s a .307 career hitter, with three batting titles and a real shot at joining the 3,000-Hit, 300-Homer, 300-Steal Club. And considering that only Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez are in that club, that would pretty much seal this deal.

However … have you ever noticed that Jose Altuve is an Astro? So when his name hits the ballot, some of you will be reminiscing about trash-can lids, I’m sure.

I don’t think he deserves the abuse, based on what we know. But is any member of the 2017-24 Astros going to make it to the stage in Cooperstown? Hey, you’ve got me. I just know the keepers of our red zone weren’t ready to admit him yet. So stay tuned.

CORREA AND LINDOR: It’s only fitting we discuss these two guys together. They debuted at short in the same season (2015). And I mostly overlooked them in last year’s edition of this column. Sorry! So let’s revisit that.

Want to guess the only two active position players, age 30 or younger, with more than 40 wins above replacement? Right. There’s Lindor (45.6, at 30) and Correa (44.0, at 29). Derek Jeter’s WAR total at Lindor’s age: 44.7. Chipper Jones’ WAR total at Correa’s age: 38.5. So both of these men need to age smoothly and stay healthy. But we can clearly see those chains moving.

TUCKER, DEVERS AND ALVAREZ: I understand that Tucker, Devers and Air Yordan are all on the other side of 27. So they’re not “young.” But here’s an example of what these next five years could mean for guys of their stature.

Take Alvarez, who owns a career 163 OPS+ — the same as Henry Aaron’s at this age! Suppose his next five years look like his last three? He’d still be only 32, and well beyond 300 homers and 600 extra-base hits, with close to a 1.000 OPS.

So does he even have a Hall of Fame argument yet? No way. But in five years? He’d be basically the Son of Big Papi, waiting to happen. Wouldn’t he? So let’s chat again in 2029!

The ‘Let’s Talk Next Year’ Club: Let’s just discuss this collection as a group. Nearly every name on this list can feel like a star at any given moment. Jacob deGrom owns two Cy Youngs. Christian Yelich was an MVP. Corey Seager is a two-time World Series MVP. We don’t have to explain to anybody who the heck Alex Bregman, Marcus Semien, Xander Bogaerts or Yu Darvish are.

But they’re all north of 30 now. And if they’re bound for Cooperstown, this is a pivotal time. Yelich and Semien have both cleared the 40-WAR plateau. But Yelich’s WAR total (41.9 at age 32) still ranks behind every expansion-era Hall of Fame outfielder at this age, except for Jim Rice. Semien (43.9 at age 33) ranks behind every expansion-era Hall of Fame infielder at this age.

So with every one of these players, their peaks are waning. Are they really going to defy the aging curve and build a true Hall of Fame case? If they are, now would be a good time.

Closers Corner: My gut tells me that six months from now, Billy Wagner is going to get elected to the Hall of Fame. Could there possibly be better news for the legacies of Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Josh Hader?

Like Wagner, they’ve all had long periods of late-game bullpen dominance. Like Wagner, they’ve all put up once-unprecedented strikeout numbers. Like Wagner, October hasn’t always been a month where people used the phrase, best postseason closer since Mariano, to describe them.

But if Wagner goes in, does it open the door for the next generation of Wagner clones to follow him? You know what? It just might!