(ESPN) Jeremy Woo: Rockets have interest in Sheppard, with both the FO and ownership intrigued

Sheppard is a shooting savant, a pick pocket savant, affects winning savant. He happens to be a good passer too but I haven’t seen anyone call him a PG savant, seems to be made up in YOUR mind.

 

Yeah "CP3 with a more lethal shot" or Nash as comps isn't implying a PG savant? Put down the crackpipe.

 

What a stupid remark on so many levels.

There's reasonable anti Reed arguments and then theres this.

I'd throw Dobizzle in there also since he has shown he's completely clueless and also a hypocrite.

Wants to call people out who he says he saw say Reed is CP3 with a shot, but then says he's only seen him be a "connective passer".

Some of this **** you just cant take seriously.

 

I said put it down, not send me a self portrait

 

Spoiler

Magic Johnson: 6’9 | 215 lbs
Luka Doncic: 6’7 | 230 lbs
James Harden: 6’5 | 220 lbs
Oscar Robertson: 6’5 | 205 lbs
Nate McMillan: 6’5 | 195 lbs
Micheal Ray Richardson: 6’5 | 189 lbs
Jason Kidd: 6’4 | 205 lbs
Jrue Holiday: 6’4 | 205 lbs
Walt Frazier: 6’4 | 200 lbs
Richie Guerin: 6’4 | 195 lbs
Goran Dragic: 6’4 | 190 lbs
Glenn Rivers: 6’4 | 185 lbs
Derek Harper: 6’4 | 185 lbs
Dennis Johnson: 6’4 | 185 lbs
Alvin Robertson: 6’4 | 185 lbs
Gary Payton: 6’4 | 180 lbs
Baron Davis: 6’3 | 209 lbs
Chauncey Billups: 6’3 | 202 lbs
Andre Miller: 6’3 | 200 lbs
Jose Calderon: 6’3 | 200 lbs
Jarrett Jack: 6’3 | 200 lbs
Steve Nash: 6’3 | 195 lbs
Terry Porter: 6’3 | 195 lbs
Jeff Teague: 6’3 | 195 lbs
Steve Francis: 6’3 | 195 lbs
D’Angelo Russell: 6’3 | 193 lbs
Joe Dumars: 6’3 | 190 lbs
Jo Jo White: 6’3 | 190 lbs
Eric Snow: 6’3 | 190 lbs
Sam Cassell: 6’3 | 185 lbs
Earl Monroe: 6’3 | 185 lbs
Dave Bing: 6’3 | 180 lbs
Brad Davis: 6’3 | 180 lbs
Randy Smith: 6’3 | 180 lbs
Jerry West: 6’3 | 175 lbs
John Lucas: 6’3 | 175 lbs
Rod Strickland: 6’3 | 175 lbs
Steve Blake: 6’3 | 172 lbs
Kenny Smith: 6’3 | 170 lbs
Sleepy Floyd: 6’3 | 170 lbs
Fat Lever: 6’3 | 170 lbs
John Wall: 6’2.75 | 195.6 lbs
Kirk Hinrich: 6’2.75 | 186 lbs
Gilbert Arenas: 6’2.25 | 199 lbs
Russell Westbrook: 6’2.25 | 192 lbs
Ricky Rubio: 6’2 | 190 lbs
Tony Parker: 6’2 | 185 lbs
Jason Terry: 6’2 | 185 lbs
Stephen Curry: 6’2 | 181 lbs
Stephon Marbury: 6’2 | 180 lbs
Gus Williams: 6’2 | 175 lbs
Hal Greer: 6’2 | 175 lbs
Lou Williams: 6’2 | 175 lbs
Norm Nixon: 6’2 | 170 lbs
De’Aaron Fox: 6’2 | 169.6 lbs
Deron Williams: 6’1.75 | 202.4 lbs
Kyrie Irving: 6’1.75 | 191 lbs
Damian Lillard: 6’1.75 | 188.8 lbs
Reed Sheppard: 6’1.75 | 181.6 lbs
Derrick Rose: 6’1.5 | 196 lbs
Donovan Mitchell: 6’1.25 | 211.4 lbs
Raymond Felton: 6’1 | 205 lbs
Derek Fisher: 6’1 | 200 lbs
Jalen Brunson: 6’1 | 198.4 lbs
Mo Williams: 6’1 | 198 lbs
Jason Williams: 6’1 | 190 lbs
Mike Bibby: 6’1 | 190 lbs
TJ McConnell: 6’1 | 190 lbs
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Isiah Thomas: 6’1 | 180 lbs
Mark Jackson: 6’1 | 180 lbs
Rajon Rondo: 6’1 | 180 lbs
Maurice Cheeks: 6’1 | 180 lbs
Lenny Wilkens: 6’1 | 180 lbs
Kevin Johnson: 6’1 | 180 lbs
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Norm Van Lier: 6’1 | 173 lbs
John Stockton: 6’1 | 170 lbs
Nick Van Exel: 6’1 | 170 lbs
Gail Goodrich: 6’1 | 170 lbs
Brandon Jennings: 6’1 | 170 lbs
Kenny Anderson: 6’1 | 168 lbs
Tiny Archibald: 6’1 | 150 lbs
Trae Young: 6’0.5 | 177.8 lbs
Kyle Lowry: 6’0 | 196 lbs
Jameer Nelson: 6’0 | 190 lbs
Guy Rodgers: 6’0 | 185 lbs
Dick McGuire: 6’0 | 180 lbs
Mookie Blaylock: 6’0 | 180 lbs
Greg Anthony: 6’0 | 176 lbs
Tim Hardaway: 6’0 | 175 lbs
Mark Price: 6’0 | 170 lbs
Rickey Green: 6’0 | 170 lbs
Kevin Porter: 6’0 | 170 lbs (no, not him)
Allen Iverson: 6’0 | 165 lbs
Chris Paul: 5’11.75 | 178 lbs
Kemba Walker: 5’11.5 | 184 lbs
Ty Lawson: 5’11.25 | 196.6 lbs
Terrell Brandon: 5’11 | 180 lbs
Mike Conley: 5’11 | 175 lbs
JJ Barea: 5’10 | 180 lbs
Avery Johnson: 5’10 | 175 lbs
Brevin Knight: 5’10 | 173 lbs
Damon Stoudamire: 5’10 | 171 lbs
Slater Martin: 5’10 | 170 lbs
Michael Adams: 5’10 | 162 lbs
Calvin Murphy: 5’9 | 165 lbs
Isaiah Thomas: 5’8.75 | 186 lbs
Spud Webb: 5’6 | 133 lbs
Muggsy Bogues: 5’3 | 136 lbs

 

He isn't an elite defender. I don't know anyone that thinks that he is going to be as good a defender as someone like Jrue Holiday.

His weakness is as a defender at the point of attack. He wasn't terrible in college, still better than guys like Dillingham. Still, there is some concern that he will never be better than adequate at POA defense.

He is very good as a team defender and an off-ball defender. There is little concern about him being an above average team/off ball defender.

He gets a lot of steals and blocks because he has exceptional hands and very good athleticism.

So his defense is a mixed bag - but it isn't "bad", and he is better than most of the guards in this draft.

He doesn't make flashy passes, but he doesn't need to. He makes the right pass at the right time. He had a very high assist rate, and his assist to turnover rate is excellent. As an actual passer, he is very solid.

If there is any criticism, it is that he needs to get better at dealing with swarming defenses - but he was 18 years old.

Who are all these people expecting Reed Sheppard to become LBJ or MJ - because I don't see them.

Dude - he shot 53% on nearly 5 3's a game - he shot 54% on mid-range shots - he shot nearly 60% at the rim. He shot in the mid 80's from the free throw line as a 19-year-old.

As for Steph Curry - he is the best shooter in history.... and FWIW as a freshman, at a smaller school, he shot 41% from 3.

Does that mean Reed will be a better shooter? No - but questioning Reed Sheppard's shooting is pretty absurd.

He literally shot an elite percentage everywhere on the court.

Again - I don't get where you see all of these people claiming that he is a transcendent player..... they don't exist.

 

Connective passer for Reed Sheppard sounds accurate.

 

At least one, BTG. He makes it seem like there are dozens though with the hundreds of posts only outweighed by the negative Jalen posts.

 

Dillingham has great juke and quickness, he will be a good to great scorer in the NBA. The question is on the defensive side of the ball and how good will he be as a passer. His most likely outcome is an excellent 6th man type player - but the upside is there for him to do more.

 

Sheppard is going to be short, and he is not ever going to have a good reach. However, I do think that he will eventually have a very strong lower half and he has a good center of gravity, so the weight issue doesn't bother me long term.

 

I've probably come close to calling him a PG savant, so I can clarify those thoughts if that helps at all (though I doubt it will given...reasons).

I do think in his highest ceiling outcome (like 1 percent of outcomes), he's something approaching Nash (maybe Curry, but I see less of that) as an offensive player. Not quite Nash, but something like that. Maybe something between Mark Price and Nash? But yeah...sure...PG savant. For context, I suppose Sarr would be AD in his top 1 percent of outcomes, Clingan a better Gobert/Brook Lopez, Sengun is Jokic, Jalen is Booker, etc. Just throwing that out there in case people think this is unreasonable hype (1 percent outcomes usually are unreasonable hype).

In his more realistic ceiling outcomes (maybe like 20%-30% of outcomes), he's closer to like a FVV on-ball. Maybe not quite as good of a playmaker (though arguably a better passer?). Probably wouldn't use the term PG savant, but a good PG for sure.

In his median outcome, he's probably like a Derrick White (sorry, I know all guards are compared Derrick White, but can't think of a better example at the moment). Not good enough to be your primary creator, but a solid playmaker when needed and a solid connective passer.

In his floor outcomes, he's probably like a DiVincenzo or something like that as a playmaker (DiVincenzo probably better overall maybe, don't really watch him a ton to fully make that call). Again, not good enough to be a primary creator, mostly just going to shoot/score, but still a solid high IQ player in your offense. Possibly more like Kennard if I'm underrating DiVincenzo's playmaking game.

Pulling from Vecenie's comments on Reed (but from his strengths this time, which apparently is not showing up on CF for some reason):

Anyway I'm probably in the minority in my thoughts about his high end PG potential, and I'll still willingly admit he's got big concerns on defense (which I've repeatedly gone over), and even if I'm unsure how much it will matter, he definitely has concerns as a primary creator when working without a ball screen. At the very least, he will need to be able to get by NBA bigs, which I do have some concerns about.

 

Brah.

 

I think Dillingham might actually be the better choice for the Rockets, because of his superior handles. One thing that is troublesome on the offensive end, is that he is not a good finisher. In fact he is a poor finisher. If he can become a better passer that aspect will improve as well. His rookie year (if he gets minutes), he will get absolutely mauled in the lane so don’t expect those finishing numbers to be very good.

 

Dillingham would be awesome. His ability to break down a defense, create for others via gravity, and get to the line gives me confidence that he can contribute even when his outside shot is not going down. Defensively is where he is in the crosshairs, but I think a good peripheral defense around him would help mitigate his shortcomings there while his body fills out and he gets accustomed to playing NBA defense. You cant teach the natural instinct to create off the bounce that he has. He reminds me of Kyrie.

 

It is hard to say - but I am concerned about Dillingham defensively going forward.

Reed Sheppard is a better passer than Dillingham, but Dillingham does have better handles and more wiggle.

At this point I think that Sheppard is just the better prospect, but I can see a world where Dillingham is a high-level scorer.

 

I definitely see a world where Dillingham is able to just light up defenses. Could easily be a high level scorer in the league.

I do think his defense is bad enough that it might not matter. Almost the opposite of something like Garuba (pretty good defense, but lack of offense keeps him off the floor). Luckily NBA probably caters more towards offense, so maybe he still has a good shot at having success.

I'd personally just pass on Dillingham (especially at #3 with what his draft stock appears to be) given the various concerns, but I would not be surprised if he blew up in the NBA.

 

I'm not saying anything different than most smart analysts are saying about Sheppard.

I've tried to spell out for everyone how talking about his ceiling isn't suggesting those things are likely...a ceiling is a best possible outcome.

I've spelled out how I think a more likely outcome is a better version of FVV.

I get how this can be confusing for our low IQ friends though.

 

I feel like most people critiquing Sheppards defense point out the size and being target on switches.

However, most teams have at least one smaller guard as starter, and nearly have one in the main rotation. Only a few run out consistent big line ups like Boston and Minn.

Also, the Rockets already have to deal with Sengun's perimeter defensive limitations right now, and would be silly to utilize a pure-switch or switch heavy defensive scheme if he is going to be a major factor. In which case, the Rockets may be able to hide Sheppard a bit against those types of teams with an alternative approach.

 

Not only will Dillingham be a defensive liability, but he only shot 35% on NBA distance 3's so there's some question as to how well his shooting will translate.

Also he's very much tiny SG rather than a PG. He's not a natural passer, his first instinct is to find his own shot and his second instinct is to take a shot himself even if it isn't there. I'm not sure how well that'll work for him at the NBA level.

If it works, he'll be a bucket, if not he might struggle to find a role.