[3rd pick] Who do you want?

Feigen mock

3. Rockets (via Nets): Reed Sheppard, Kentucky, G, 6, 6-2, 19
The selections of the first two picks could strengthen the Rockets’ potential to trade, with teams in need of a center possibly waiting to make their best offer until they see if Clingan or Sarr is on the board. Barring a trade, the Rockets in this scenario would need to choose between Clingan and Sheppard, prospects that are as different as they can get. A great deal of uncertainty comes with either, but Sheppard’s potential to be an elite shooter might give him the greater chance to reach his ceiling. The Rockets also heavily consider the analytics, with the numbers pointing to Sheppard. The Rockets do not have much playing time to devote to developing a rookie, but Sheppard could have a slightly cleaner path to minutes than others.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5579738/2024/06/23/nba-draft-confidential-guards-2024/

Stephon Castle | 6-6 SG/SF | 19 years old | Connecticut
Western Conference scout No. 1: He’s got great size, he’s a really good athlete, he’s strong. He does everything but shoot it really well. Played for a terrific coach, and if you don’t play the right way and hard for Danny (Hurley), you don’t play. He buries you. He did all that, a freshman on a terrific team.

He’s got upside to his game. What is he, 19? I think he’s got a really bright future. It’s just, where is it? What’s his ceiling as a shooter? … If he can get to 35, 36 (percent) from 3, you have a really good player. I don’t think he’s a stone-cold point guard, but can he be a secondary ballhandler? Absolutely. …

When you can run pick and roll on both sides of the court, you really have the defense in a tough place. Can he be your primary guy? I don’t think so, but maybe he morphs into that one day. Secondary? Yeah, absolutely. Because he wants to pass. It’s not like, hey, I want the ball to score all the time. I’m willing to make plays. I think he can handle the ball plenty. Likes (defense). He’s tough, he’s gritty. He’s got that wired right now.

Eastern Conference executive No. 1: I don’t think Castle is a point guard, even though Connecticut played him there. He’s more off guard. Castle is a better defender (than Isaiah Collier). To me, they’re at two different positions. Because of the team they had, his development was probably hindered early, and he came on late.

College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played UConn): He’s come a long way. … He’s kind of progressed. His shooting improved throughout the course of the year. But from the point guard standpoint, I think it’s possible for him, because he can handle the ball, he’s a talented kid. If the point guard is bringing the ball across halfcourt and throwing the ball to Devin Booker or Kevin Durant or Luka Dončić, then, sure.

He didn’t have a ton of reps at making plays for others in ball screens, and bringing the ball up and setting the table and all of that stuff. He wasn’t a guy that we just tried to attack one-on-one (defensively). … We tried to maintain and sustain our pace and movement as opposed to just going at him. And not just him. Tristen Newton was a good on-ball defender. Donovan Clingan was a monster. …

(Castle) was able to compete at the highest level because of his God-given tools, and then as the game became a little clearer for him over the course of the year, you could see him just improving on both sides of the ball.

College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played UConn): First time we played them, and I’d seen him at AAU, we were in the layup line and I told (my coach), that guy’s a pro. He’s gifted. I didn’t see the point guard thing. I’ve seen him saying that. I haven’t seen that. Obviously he didn’t play point for UConn. I don’t know. I can’t answer that. I know he’s a good player.

College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played UConn): I do love Castle. I think he’s going to be a real good pro for a long time. I just love his whole demeanor. His defensive side is so much ahead of his offensive size. Legit can guard three positions on the floor. He can get into a rotation because he can play three positions and he can guard three positions. He doesn’t shoot it great right now and it’s something he can work on. But you can put him on the floor, and he can guard.

Eastern Conference executive No. 2: They knock his shooting, and it needs to get better. But it’s not bad, and it’s gotten better. To me, he’s the best chance of any of them to be an All-Star. He can play the one. He’s got a great feel. Can handle it. He’s a really good passer.

Is he a true one right now? Probably not. But he’s still better than most of the ones in the league right now. The (shooting) mechanics are good. This year at UConn he was much improved. … He’s got a great feel, great floor game. If he drops to San Antonio (at four), oh, my God. They’re going to be a b****.

Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Eastern Conference executive No. 4: He was having a great season. He had the knee injury. But, while having that great season, he was a European player who played with a very high IQ. Had the ball in his hands. Was a downhill guard that finishes in traffic, and was crafty and heady. But he wasn’t shooting the ball well. I’m trying to think of how Europeans of have succeeded, of late, that couldn’t shoot the 3.

I don’t want to call him a non-shooter, but was like more trending toward not shooting well. Everybody is going to defend him and say, “Look at the free throw percentage.” I’ve watched this kid for a while. He doesn’t shoot the 3 at a high rate. … But, he’s a big guard. He’s very heady. He has a knack for finishing at the rim off of different feet, different hands. Can play through contact. Draws fouls at a high rate, makes free throws.

I’m not discounting him. Again, top five for a European guard that doesn’t shoot the ball? That’s tough. You go in an NBA locker room, and you’re the guy from Europe, and then we get on the floor and you can’t shoot? They’re going to be like, “I thought that’s what they brought you here for”

And “can’t shoot” is a little harsh. But he trends more toward, he’s an offensive prober. He shoots the jumper as a last ditch (resort). He’s a guy that puts it on the deck, and he probes, and gets downhill, and will create body contact and finish. He’s a great finisher. And he’s really smart in terms of letting offense run, and picking out moments when to dart to the basket, and cut. He’s a smart player. It’s just that the shooting, there’s something to be desired.

Eastern Conference scout: I don’t know that he’s injury-prone; he just has this injury. He’s interesting. Great size, can pass, improved shooter.

Western Conference executive No. 1: The medical we’ve gotten is, they don’t seem that concerned. They think it’s good stuff. It seems like it’s just a kindling with this. This doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a chronic thing. It isn’t like he went to UNC, and you know their medical staff. He’s playing in Europe, and he’s out of sight, out of mind. He’s represented by one of the most powerful agents in Europe (Miško Ražnatović), and Miško has been able to manipulate what he needs. …

If he starts dropping, it’s not because of his size, his age, and his skill; it’s going to be because of something else, and that’s going to be the knee. But it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a wildfire, where this is legitimately a concern. Right now, when we break him down, how can we add a non-shooter to what we have? You put so much pressure on your player development area — guys, we have to make him to be a respectable shooter. And what that means is, 38 percent, 39 percent from 3. And he’s never done that in his career. But, you guys have to make him that. You can love his size and you love his passing ability and you can love his basketball IQ, but at the end of the day, in the league, you have to be able to make a shot.

 

Rob Dillingham | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
Eastern Conference executive No. 3: He’s kind of like the Tyrese Maxey of this draft. ‘Cause if you look at his Kentucky numbers, his stats are way better than Maxey’s were coming out of Kentucky. Guys like that, in that combo box, that can score, they stay around. And that’s what they do — they score. Dillingham is 6-1, 6-2. When everybody kept saying he’s little, I was saying ‘he ain’t Isiah Thomas little, or Nate Robinson little.’ They’re like, ‘I worry about his size.’ I’m like, he’s probably bigger than f—— Maxey. When he came out, everybody was talking about size, and what position can he play. When a guy can hoop, let him hoop and put him out there and leave him alone. That’s Dillingham. Let’s not overthink it too much. He’s got short arms, so he doesn’t look tall.

Western Conference executive No. 1: When he’s on the floor, he has the free pass card. You’re not putting him in the corner and watching him stand. He has the ball, and he is doing his thing. And if he has it going, you’re letting him get loose. And he may not have it that night where he doesn’t and then he’s sitting. But he changes the speed, the offensive flow. Cat-quick. You let him do his thing. Dillingham is going to become a crowd favorite for whatever team he plays for, because he’s just electric. He’s going to have his jersey sell out with kids, because (they’ll think) ‘I can be like him.’

Eastern Conference executive No. 1: As we say, he’s a bucket getter. He knows how to create off the dribble with his game, where he can get to spots, even though he’s very thin and not very strong. But he can get to his spots and get his shot off. He may struggle early with getting to the basket. More of what you call a scoring point than a true point. He would be, whereas Reed could be a starter, Robert may be more valuable as a sixth man. That’s not to say he can’t start. But his importance to a team may be more coming off the bench. When Maxey came out, Cal had him at more of a two than the point. Maxey played (point guard) in high school, whereas this guy was a scorer with the ball in his hands. Defensively, he’s going to struggle to stay in front of people. He was in foul trouble a lot this season, because he was out of position, or he was reaching to steal the ball. I don’t see that changing in the NBA until he gets the defensive discipline to keep his hands in front of him.

Eastern Conference executive No. 2: You’re going to think I’m crazy, but Dillingham scares me. He’s an explosive scorer, and he’s tough. But he’s the worst defender. And he does not have a great feel as a point guard. Those kind of guys scare me. It may work out, but he’s a bad defensive player. He’s small and doesn’t defend. Look at Bones Hyland, who I like. Very good on offense. He struggled in Denver because he couldn’t defend. Gets to L.A. (with the Clippers), same thing. With NBA coaches, if you can’t defend, it’s hard to get on the floor. (Dillingham) is an elite scorer. I’ll give him that. And he’s tough as nails. It’s not that I hate him. But they’re talking about top 10. I wouldn’t do it.

College head coach No. 1 (his coach played Kentucky): Explosive speed and quickness. Unlimited range. Can shoot you out of games or shoot you back into games. Has good offensive basketball IQ with his passing ability. Needs to add weight and get stronger. Very slight and will get pushed around.

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40394709/nba-draft-2024-pelton-updated-top-30-prospects

Over the past five drafts (2019 to 2023), the three teams that have added the most value on a per-pick basis relative to what we would expect based on where they picked all have ties to the Houston Rockets' front office. Along with Houston, that group includes the Philadelphia 76ers, who hired longtime Rockets executive Daryl Morey in 2020, and the Sacramento Kings, who hired Monte McNair from Houston in 2020 as their lead executive. Those teams rank just ahead of the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz.

Although Morey oversaw only one of those drafts, the Rockets themselves are far and away No. 1 by this measure, getting almost double the expected value of their picks. Houston picked the two players who most exceeded the expectations for their draft spot, Alperen Sengun at No. 16 in 2021 and Cam Whitmore at No. 20 last year.

That makes the Rockets' No. 3 pick especially interesting this season. Depending on how the first two picks go, Houston could have its choice of the top two players in my projections, Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard and UConn center Donovan Clingan. The latest mock draft from Givony and Woo has the Rockets picking Sheppard.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I, the Nike EYBL AAU competition and top professional leagues to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100-prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.


1. Reed Sheppard | Kentucky | G
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.2 WARP

Already the top player in my stats-only projections, Sheppard moved atop the consensus model as well, from No. 7 in ESPN's top 100 in April to No. 4 now. Sheppard's projected 39% 3-point shooting as a rookie is the highlight. No other player in this year's draft is projected to shoot better than 37%.

Beyond that, Sheppard's accumulation of steals and blocks also stands out -- particularly relative to his wingspan, measured at 6-foot-3¼ at the draft combine. Yet Sheppard has the best projected steal rate of any player in the top 100 and a better projected block rate than 6-9 post Tristan da Silva. His closest NBA-bound comps in steals and blocks are long-limbed guards Kent Bazemore and Delon Wright.

2. Donovan Clingan | UConn | C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP

Clingan's shot blocking is his standout skill. Just three draft picks in my database had better projected block rates as rookies: Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson and Victor Wembanyama. Clingan adds atypically high usage (25% last season for the national champions) for a finisher of his ilk. Among the eight players in my database projected to shoot at least 60%, only Udoka Azubuike had a higher rate, setting Clingan apart from more selective finishers such as Dereck Lively II and Mark Williams.

3. Alexandre Sarr | Perth | C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Averaging just 17.2 minutes per game in the Australian NBL at age 18 (he turned 19 in April, after the season ended), Sarr rated as one of the top 20 players in the league by virtue of his 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. Sarr ranking third overall is a product of the strong projections for Clingan and Sheppard rather than any slight as a likely top-two pick. His stats-only projection makes him the third player in this year's draft ranked in the top 10 in both components of the consensus model, typically a strong indicator of NBA success.

4. Zach Edey | Purdue | C
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.8 WARP

Edey's projection slipped a bit because of his move from No. 14 to No. 16 in the top 100, as well as a tweak to my projections to utilize players' NCAA assist rates via Hoop-Math.com. Edey was assisted on 71% of his made field goals, second highest of any prospect ranked in ESPN's top 80. Edey still projects as a strong offensive player in the NBA thanks to his high efficiency on a massive projected 26% usage rate. The questions are more about the defensive end, where just three draft picks in my database have a lower steal projection than Edey: Alex Len, Doug McDermott and Nick Richards.

5. Johnny Furphy | Kansas | SF
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.5 WARP

6. Ja'Kobe Walter | Baylor | SG
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.4 WARP

7. Zaccharie Risacher | Bourg | SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 55
Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Risacher's stats-only projection isn't quite as pessimistic as ranking 55th looks. He's still projected for 0.5 WARP based only on his stats from the French LNB Pro A along with EuroLeague and EuroCup, which are likely selling him short as a shooter. Risacher has shot 41% on 3s during those games, but because the sample is still small (209 attempts, fewer than Walter took in one season at Baylor), he's regressed to a 34% NBA projection. Risacher's form looks legit, and if he's an elite shooter, that opens up the rest of his game. Still, Risacher needs to fill out the box score more than he has in France. His assist rate in particular is weak for a wing. Risacher averaged just 1.6 assists per 36 minutes across competitions this season.

8. Jared McCain | Duke | G
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.0 WARP

9. Kyshawn George | Miami | G/F
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.0 WARP

10. Stephon Castle | UConn | G
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 2.0 WARP

Castle looks the part of a do-everything guard who can compensate for limited outside shooting (27% on 3s) with his activity. His steal and block rates were disappointing, with the steal rate being a weakness. On the plus side, Castle shot a solid 54% inside the arc and posted an above-average usage rate as a freshman starter on the national champs. As a result, I like him to beat his stats-only projection.

11. Rob Dillingham | Kentucky | G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.8 WARP

12. Cam Christie | Minnesota | SG
Top 100: No. 33
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.8 WARP

13. Devin Carter | Providence | G
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.6 WARP

The rare late bloomer who excels in my projections, Carter ranked fourth in box plus-minus last season among players who saw at least 1,000 minutes of action, per Stathead.com. His steal and block rates have always been elite, but Carter became one of the nation's best defensive rebounders from the perimeter last season. He improved to 38% shooting beyond the arc after making just 29% of 3s in his first two years in college.

14. Tidjane Salaun | Cholet | SF
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.6 WARP

15. Carlton Carrington | Pittsburgh | G
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.6 WARP

 

16. Matas Buzelis | G League Ignite | F
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 49
Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Relative to past Ignite prospects, Buzelis' scoring at the G League level was below-average. He used 22% of Ignite's plays, a rate lower than fellow first-round prospects Ron Holland II and Tyler Smith, and wasn't particularly efficient on them with a .522 true shooting percentage that was also weaker than both teammates. He'll have to improve his range after hitting just 26% of his 3s for Ignite. The 6-10 Buzelis did excel as a shot blocker, easily leading Ignite in block rate.

17. Kyle Filipowski | Duke | F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.5 WARP

18. Nikola Topic | Red Star | PG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Among players ranked in ESPN's top 30, only Marquette's Tyler Kolek has a better assist projection than Topic. His finishing ability as a bigger guard also stands out. Topic made 64% of his 2-point attempts this season in Adriatic League play. The issue is when Topic gets further from the basket. He shot 26.5% on 3s, and despite being a highly accurate free throw shooter (86%), his shot tends to flatten out from distance. Additionally, Topic generates few steals and blocks, hurting his projection.

19. Ryan Dunn | Virginia | F
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.4 WARP

20. Ron Holland II | G League Ignite | SF
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 1.4 WARP

As compared to his Ignite teammate Buzelis, Holland projects better based solely on statistical performance. Holland is the superior scorer, is nearly nine months younger and racks up steals in impressive fashion. Only Sheppard has a better steal projection among top-30 players. Still, Holland offered plenty to nitpick, including 24% 3-point shooting and more turnovers than assists. He simply seems to be taking a disproportionate amount of blame for G League Ignite's noncompetitive 2-32 regular-season record.

21. Baylor Scheierman | Creighton | SF
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.3 WARP

22. Jaylen Wells | Washington State | F/G
Top 100: No. 45
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.2 WARP

23. Yves Missi | Baylor | C
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.2 WARP

24. Tyler Smith | G League Ignite | F/C
Top 100: No. 32
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.2 WARP

25. Jalen Bridges | Baylor | SF
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.1 WARP

26. Isaiah Collier | USC | PG
Top 100: No. 22
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 1.2 WARP

27. Justin Edwards | Kentucky | SF
Top 100: No. 39
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.1 WARP

28. Jaylon Tyson | Cal | SF
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.1 WARP

29. Kel'el Ware | Indiana | C
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 1.1 WARP

30. Cody Williams | Colorado | SG
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 51
Consensus: 1.0 WARP

Of the top prospects in this group, Williams has the weakest stats-only projection. That's in part because Williams didn't rate as well in the EYBL as Collier -- best among all 2024 prospects based strictly on AAU -- or Edwards, who ranked third in that group behind McCain. Williams also did not rate as well at Colorado, where he shot well on 2s (59%) and 3s (41.5%) but contributed little else in the box score other than an above-average block rate.

35. Dalton Knecht | Tennessee | SF
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 76
Consensus: 0.9 WARP

In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.

Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.

There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.

45. Bronny James | USC | G
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 40
Consensus: 0.5 WARP

It's also worth discussing James. To some degree, he's difficult to project because perimeter players who saw so little action in college in a low-usage rate rarely declare for the draft after their freshmen seasons. The best comps for James in this regard, like Peyton Watson of the Denver Nuggets, are typically bigger. James will have to dramatically improve his shooting to fit a 3-and-D role after hitting 27% from the college line. Still, his projection suggests taking him in the second round will be reasonable if his name was in fact "Charles Stephenson," as James' agent Rich Paul mused to Givony recently.