This is some hardcore reaching. Why cant you just admit Green can have any positive impact at any aspect? Ime doesn't chose the offense to be trash when Green is not on the court. Your list of most used line ups when Green is on the bench is literally almost every bench rotation player. Ime chooses who replaces Green based on who the gm has on the roster. You can make an argument that part of the reason why Green has a bad on/off defensive impact is that the replacements are not only good defenders they also play against opposing bench units more often. That's why the on/off impact has more relevance for player comparisons when the situations are more similar as in two starters on the same team. The more distant that is the less reliable it is. So comparing a starter and a bench player impact on the same team is less reliable.
Just as I don't value on/off offensive numbers as indication of impact, I don't value the defensive ones. So I don't care about green's bad on/off defensive numbers. And I don't find the stat useful to compare any two players to judge their impact, and that's what I have been trying to show you with examples, the point was not to bash green. Because there is nothing to admit.He has positive impact, whatever that means. He is an improving young player. His offense improved last year and he showed that he is coachable. He has a lot of talent and he uses them to collapse defenses as you often mention but that has not yet translated into skills yet, where he can use to improve both his and the team's offense.
What you say makes sense on paper but Zion? JDub? Zach Lavine? Durant? Aren't all these high usage guys? Using on-off stats in any way to arrive to a result is not healthy. They are misleading.
Noise is not about sample size although small sample size magnifies the noise. Noise is factors that affect the metric but have nothing to do with the thing you use it to measure. For example, +/- is (1) heavily dependent on the other 9 players while the player is on the floor, and (2) heavily dependent on the guy who replaces him when he sits, and (3) the 10 players who are playing when the player is off the floor, and (4) the coach's strategies when the player is on the floor and off the floor. None of these things have anything to do with the player's offensive impact. Yet all these things contribute to the player's +/-.
You keep saying Amen picks up his dribble easily. You need to rewatch the games. You act like as soon as a defender gets near him he stops dribbling which isn’t true.
I don't know why you are pretending I'm saying that this is just one metric and there will always be confounding factors. Did you read anything I typed about how on/off impact numbers have more relevance the closer two players share the same situation such as both being starters on the same team. A starter and a bench player on the same team has more confounding factors. And two players on entirely separate teams have even more confounding factors. Doesn't mean it's completely irrelevant. Against set defenders where the POA defense is on him? Ya he does at least often.hes fine against back peddling defenders in transition or semi-transition.
Kevin Durant? https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/984/onoff#tab-team_efficiency James Harden: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1487/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Luka Doncic: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4432/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Steph Curry: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/787/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Jokic: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1883/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Lebron James: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1785/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Joel Embiid: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1049/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Booker: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/344/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Lillard: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/2197/onoff#tab-team_efficiency CP3(look at his prime years): https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/2857/onoff#tab-team_efficiency I just did a sample of who I consider some of the best offensive players in the NBA off the top of my head over the past decade. It seems like more often than not it says something relevant. You can find individual data points for players that don't fit narratives for any analytical stat. If you are a high usage offensive player, your on/off impact on team offense is probably pretty relevant to actual impact on court. Most of the time.
I’m resided to going into the season with Jalen Green. I’m just not a believer in the front office’s ability to make decisive decisions or pull off a trade that really benefits the rockets. Presti doesn’t let guys go to restricted FA. He makes decisions to move on and recoup value. I don’t see a Giddy-like trade happening. If Jalen is still on the roster in October I’m assuming it’s because Ime wants it that way, which makes me feel a little better. I know we don’t usually draft for fit, but given the uncertainty with Jalen, the questions about Amen’s future at pg, Fred’s age, and the lack of shooting in the backcourt, Reed Sheppard just makes too much sense as a draft target. I’d feel a lot better about the Jalen situation and our overall backcourt situation if we had Reed waiting in the wings.
The tennis match about "good or bad" merit that in its essence is reduced down to +/- one shot per game is fascinating.
It's not even 1 a game it's actually ridiculous when you look at what their huge issue is over as a shooter. Jalen shot 605 3's and made 201 for 33% across 82 games (HE'S NOT A GOOD ENOUGH SHOOTER!!!) If Jalen made 35% of his 3's he'd have hit 211, which means he'd need to make an additional 1/10th of a 3 pointer per game. Not 1 extra 3 a game, 1 extra 3 every 10 games. (it's actually .12 extra threes a game but rounding for simplicity sake) If Jalen made 40% of his 3's he'd have hit 242, which means he's need to make an additional half a 3 every game, or an additional 3 every 2 games and that would then make him not just "good" but an elite shooter to go alongside everything else he already does at a high level on offense. And this is what we're calling a bust? This is the disaster? an extra 3 every 10 games? or 2 games? This is why we have absolute morons saying they "need to see 70+ games at over 40% from 3", people just did not pay attention in math class so they don't understand numbers at all.
Apparently the cultists think the difference between being a bottom 15 shooter in the entire NBA and a good shooter is +/- one shot a game..... You guys need to find better role models.
Not that it doesn't really make a difference. Just that I'd rather have a guy who routinely put in 25-30 pts and made one less 3 every 10 games for 33% than a guy who routinely put in 10-15 points and hit 35-40%. As much as people like to pretend only the advanced metrics matter, it's the counting stats that ACTUALLY decide whether or not you win or lose, heresy to the Moreyites, I know.
So you want a low efficiency chucker over someone actually good at basketball? That checks out with your post history.
