(ESPN) Jeremy Woo: Rockets have interest in Sheppard, with both the FO and ownership intrigued

This is the last place I would expect to see a critter

 

I see the so-called experts are at it again.

 

A very casual one only, I assure you

 

I'm struggling to see the "star" potential in a small guard small wingspan with average quickness in a league where length is necessary defensively especially for a smaller guard.

If I'm picking at 3 the guy gotta be able to play right away.

Overrated defensively not switchable.
A combo guard more than a point.
Excellent efficiency & a
great player just not at 3rd overall.

Much rather have Kenect or Cody Williams. They fit the Ime mold alot more .

Rox can get a shooter in free agency.

 

You missed my point completely.

Sheppard and Amen are A+ prospect grades at flawed archetypes/roles in the NFL sense. Where a running back or a center or a middle linebacker can be a 95/100 prospect grade at that role and the highest prospect grade in the draft, but because their roles are less valuable they are drafted in the second round behind QB's, edges, WR's, and CB's with much worse prospect grades.

Among non-shooting big PG's/wings, Amen was the best prospect in the last ~8 years. But this archetype has teambuilding limitations and is valued less on the market. Hence A+ prospect grade at a less desirable role to draft.

Among undersized elite shooting combo guards, Sheppard is the best prospect in ~5-6 years. But this archetype has teambuilding limitations and is valued less on the market. Hence A+ prospect grade at a less desirable role to draft.

Guys like Buzelis and Castle are the opposite -- high role value but there are many prospects in the last few drafts that were better prospects at that archetype. They are ~B prospect grades at desirable roles.

The NBA isn't the NFL though. Role value isn't always king. IMO, give me a truly differentiated prospect at a challenging archetype over a meh prospect at the most versatile, highly desired archetype.

Like, notionally, would you rather draft extremely rich man's Payton Pritchard or dollar store Marcus Smart? Because that's a rough approximation of Sheppard vs. Castle as prospect grades in those archetypes.

Sheppard far better prospect than Pritchard and Castle far worse prospect than Smart.

 

I think it's a smokescreen.

 

I'm wit it bro! Next week can't get here any sooner...

it would be nice to fast forward to late October immediately after. I'm tired of walking into these threads excited to spark up discussion about young draft prospects while all the attention whores always seem to want to derail them into an Alpi vs Jalen, Reed vs Jalen, Cam vs Jalen or anyone else really on the team or off the team against Jalen.

Trust me, I understood the height point. I mean there are so many more drafts which have provided Oden, Olowakandi, and Bogut bust type picks versus the Shaq, Yao, Wemby drafts that we've seen few and far between.

 

This isn't that kind of draft. Any star player from this draft will be guy who hits his ceiling in 3-5 years but was high risk. Think like Giannis.

There will probably be a 2nd or 3rd tier star guy who just surprises out of the gate like a Mitchell-type rise, but there would be no way to predict that guy now with any certainty unless you are doing detailed workouts and background checks like the teams are supposed to do. Even for them there is lot a high risk/reward with that strategy.

For the fans with limited access to that knowledge/data, it is basically playing roulette.

Given that, the best option would be to draft a guy with a high floor probably good starter/rotation guy and would be cost-controlled and cheaper than that FA you want to sign. If the Rockets can trade back and also get that player, even better. This will just be a hard draft to trade back without accurate predictions/spying of other teams.

 

Woah, gotta be careful what you say round these parts. You don't wanna get Shepped up in here!

 

Sheppard is pretty quick and seems even quicker because of his IQ. Yes, he gambles too much, but he does that because he's so successful.

I'm a little torn as to whether he's the best pick or not, but he's not a bad pick.

And no, you can't just "find" a shooter in free agency like Sheppard. They don't grow on trees.

 

There is no “Star” in this draft.
And you’re severely underestimating Sheppard upside.
A lesser upside player on the Rockets just got 40 mil a year.

 

Lmao!!
That's my bad no disrespect to Shep

 

And they are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA, and are considering him at 4. That's the context. They could just move the pick for Caruso too, but nobody would.

 

Great, this probably means he’s going to end up a Spur and annoy us for a decade.

 

Go back and read my post and just pretend for my sake that I actually don’t believe we’re in some sort of argument and see if it reads differently to you. You're projecting emotions behind my posts that aren't there. I'm as calm as can be and I don't care whether you believe him or not. All I did was respond to your question. There was nothing extra in there.

WRT to who reported we are leaning towards Reed, you're putting words in my mouth. I said "based on previous info. I believe what Woo is reporting..." (or at least that he's not just making it up out of thin air) :

https://www.si.com/nba/rockets/draf...at-no-3-select-sec-guard-in-latest-mock-draft

Betting Odds:

https://www.si.com/betting/betting-odds-reveal-top-contenders-to-go-no-3-in-2024-nba-draft-01j06kwhhzj7#:~:text=The odds for the No,225 in the latest odds.

 

I get it.
I could definitely be wrong.

I'm just going off eye test. Highlights. Watch a few KU games.

Dude can ball
Just think 3 overall is too high imo.

Matas Buzelis
Dalton Knecht
Cody Williams
Devin Carter
Are all way better prospects to me & fit Ime's mold better

 

Since you mentioned Vecenie earlier, do you also agree with his take on high skill prospects?
(43:34)
We actually have 1 similar prospect on the team already who might be an example of that, plus I suppose you can lump FVV in there too.

I've been beating this drum for a while, but yeah I think people need to realize you can have a high ceiling even if you don't have the best physical traits. In fact, I'd almost argue that skill/feel/IQ > physical traits in some cases (but I'd like to do more research to confirm that).

And for Amen, the thing about him is he kinda has both. Except for the shooting (well some issues with his handle, but I think/hope the criticism there is a bit overblown). He does have great feel, IQ, spatial awareness, vision, etc., which all go along great with his physical traits.

If you think there's a prospect with similar upside that you can get by trading down with CHI (which I assume would be the deal), I suppose you could. I already said above that I think Reed has a high ceiling though, and he's also in that same tier as all the other top prospects (IIRC Sam has Sarr, Risacher, Clingan, Reed, and Castle in his top tier, which seems reasonable to me). If you trade down to the 11th spot, you basically miss out on anyone in that tier, and depending on how your next tier goes, you'll either miss some/most/all of that one. I'm not even sure someone like Devin Carter (who a lot of us like) would still be there.

I'll also note that Caruso will be a FA after this season, and he will likely want *much* more money than his current sweetheart deal (and rightfully so). He's also a bit outside the timeline of the main core, so if you're depending on him being a big piece in a championship run, I don't know if that's super likely (unless he pulls a Horford or something).

Why would NYK (with Thibs) give up a starter for a 19 year old? Why would HOU give up 4-6 years (or more) of a cost controlled rookie contract (with a prospect on the same timeline as most of the core) to get someone who is 27, not sure if he'll start (over Jalen?), and will need a new contract before the team really starts to contend (on the wrong side of 30)?

I spoke about Caruso above already (and I assumed there that the CHI pick would be included, but maybe not?). Similar concerns there. And I love Caruso. I thought hard about that deal Vecenie threw out of Jalen for Caruso (think he might have included a pick or something, can't remember). Jalen's late season play kinda made me disregard that though, especially now that only 1 year is left on Caruso's current deal.

If Reed just hits hit floor and becomes Payton Pritchard-ish, then yes I guess you could sign him later on, but obviously the appeal of getting him now is that you think he's likely going to be much much better. And if that's the case, you won't be able to sign him later (especially with the likely financial situation of the team at that point).

 

The Rox/Stone have a pretty lengthy track record at this point of consistent leaks to try and play the market for their agenda. The latest consistent message has been around the “star hunting” bit. Nothing that seems consistent here around draft prospects but I do suspect that they will leak soon because that would be pretty consistent.

HOWEVER when they do leak and it’s an obvious leak, keep in mind that there’s an agenda there if they do that. If they were to leak about Sheppard IMO that would seem like an obvious ploy to get the Hawks or Wizards to raise an eyebrow and maybe get more intrigued. If I was a Reed fan (or a Sengun only fan I guess…) I would actually feel bummed if I heard the Rockets were leaking that they like Reed. Because with leaks and the draft there’s ALWAYS a smoke and mirrors agenda.

 

Clingan center future or Segun?.......O or D moment..........................