(ESPN) Jeremy Woo: Rockets have interest in Sheppard, with both the FO and ownership intrigued

Ask yourself, what would be our motivation to put it out there? Add in that we never do this. Very tight lipped.

 

Yeah, I'm guessing the Rox have serious interest in at least half a dozen guys reported to go in the top 10 in this draft. It means nothing.

That said, I'm fine if they take Sheppard. His floor (great shooter who is capable in other areas) still fills our biggest area of need.

 

I’m not interested in a 6’2 guard running around like a chicken with his head cut off - just to make two - maybe three 3 pointers a game.

 

He's the best prospect in this draft, but I believe this is planted.

 

Theory (if we are trying to trade back):

We talk about Clingan - there is a market of teams wanting to jump into the top 5 to nab him. But because we are 'known' to be willing to trade back, the offers aren't substantial.

So all of a sudden we think Sheppard is a 'great fit' with what we currently have.
A.K.A 'up your offers boys'


Who knows.... personally I like Sheppard's fit, but also love the idea of flipping back with Memphis (to get Smart and/or Kennard) and taking Carter.

 

I agree with whoever mentioned the draft being extremely fluid from 1-8, shoot the general draft pundits are still unsure about who the top 3 will truly be so that is very unsurprising from my end.

Yes you can't teach height, this is true but you can also throw away a Hasheem Thabeet pick over a James Harden, Steph Curry, or Brandon Jennings type player just based on that premise.

I know I'm singling out one draft class that was surprisingly loaded with star talent but we need to maximize this top 3 pick for all it's worth, while we have the luxury of picking so high and climbing over that cusp of making ourselves a playoff team. Shoot if that means Castle is the guy or Holland, I'll take it... I feel like we're all in the same boat of "let's just make this one REALLY count" while we can.

 

We knew exactly who the Rockets FO had demonstrated interest in, for each of the past 3 drafts, almost immediately post lottery and often times beforehand....

??

 

This after the Clingan workout report and the Stone-in-Europe (Risarcher/Topic games) reports all have me convinced that Matas Buzelis is the pick.

 

No offense, but this kind of take reminds me of the takes people had about Amen last year:

"He's expected to be the 3rd-5th pick... and also he is non shooting PG, therefore he's not worth it" was the anti-Amen take.

"He's expected to be the 3rd-5th pick... and also he's an undersized combo guard, therefore he's not worth it" is the anti-Sheppard take.

But it's not "also". Both prospects have flaws, true. But the flaws are not in addition to being 3rd-5th on draft boards. They are why they are 3rd-5th on draft boards. If Sheppard weren't a little undersized he'd be the slam dunk obvious #1 pick, as the analytical models say he is. If Amen shot 33% from three he'd have been the #2 pick last year and clear #1 in most drafts.

Both are A+ prospect grades in flawed archetypes. Castle, Buzelis etc. are B prospect grades in more appealing archetypes.

Prospect grade is more important than archetype / position. If anything, that's what best player available means.

 

This Rotation could easily be accomplished.

I cant wait to see Cam's improvement fro year 1 to year 2. It's the main reason I'm thinking, give Jalen to the deadline and if he doesn't prove to be more consistent then he should be moved. Personally I think Cam has a better chance to become a star level player than Jalen does.

 

And there you go ... the Rockets have interest in damn-near every player they'll be able to draft now. So line up those offers, people!

 

When Cam leaned to maintain a live dribble in a half court set after brushing up against multiple defenders without picking up his dribble, maybe we can have a conversation.

Cam is at a large deficit compared to Green is agility, footwork and ball handling. His shooting stroke is also a rather exaggerated two motion shot so I even have higher hopes of Green being a better shooter as his form is more compact and more one motion. The only advantage Cam has is strength. It really depends on how much you value strength.

 

When Jalen learns how to shoot a basketball then maybe we can have a conversation, but Cam came into the league better than Jalen has ever been.

 

Cam is already a better outside shooter than Green. He just needs to improve his handles and defense. He's got a higher ceiling than Green. IMHO, but like I said, I'm fully on board with giving Green until next deadline to prove he can be more consistent. Last yr was like Green's rookie year with a real HC.

 

It's really undetermined who he better shooter will be. Cam played a mostly catch and shoot role. Green in previous seasons had around a 38% rate in open 3 pt shots. It dipped this season. My theory is playing 30+ minutes while exerting equal amount of defensive effort for the first time in his career created tired legs. He has to improve his conditioning to put effort on defense and still have the legs to be a consistent shooter on high usage and high amount of time with the ball in his hands.


But if we were to judge on things like shooting form and their ft% Jalen look like the bet I would take for being the better shooter over their careers.


Pretending like Cam improving his handles to be the threat Green is against set half court defenses is some magical thing that is bound to happen. Jalen Green at 19 was splitting double teams with a dribble. He came into the league as a far more advanced ball handler.

 

you talking about scoot?

 

So you dont think a 19 year old Cam can improve his handles, which aren't terrible to begin with. Look, this isn't a slap at Jalen like you seem to think. It's I think Cam has the body/work ethic and attitude to become a star level player. It's not like Cam didn't split double teams at all last yr. Although I will say Green is currently better at splitting double teams than Cam is.

 

Amen was never considered lower than a 4th pick and originally was ranked over Brandon Miller. Whereas Sheppard has been a really late riser and got really buoyed after the lottery and the Rockets got the 3rd pick

https://www.nbamockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/reed-sheppard
https://www.nbamockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023/amen-thompson

Amen had so much more hype and consensus to being a top-5 compared to Sheppard it's not even funny. It's one thing to believe that people are sleeping on Sheppard as a prospect, but another to compare his situation to Amen last year.

 

Cam never has split a double. He rarely is used in situations where he would have to split a double anyways as those situations usually happen as the primary pnr ball handler where defenses blitz the ball handler.


Cam can improve his handle. My point is the gap between Cam and Jalen at 19 as their starting points in he league is very high in terms of ball skills.


Do you know rookie Jalen and Cam have the exact same adjusted scoring efficiency (adjusted relative to the season they played) at 97(normalized around a mean of 100 akin to IQ scores)

There is one major difference though. Cam scored 30% of his makes self created off the dribble and Green was at 50% as a rookie. For reference yes at 60% this past season. So same efficiency but Green was doing it against set half court defenses as the primary ball handler far more often.

And then there is the fact that Cam has more turnovers than assists and Green never has.

This is more of a ball skills gap. Both entered the league with similar levels of "tunnel vision" as in a hard score first mentality ignoring teammates on the court when attacking defenders. The difference is ball handler ng skills. The better ball skills you have the easier it is to maintain a live dribble without turning it over through multiple defenders creating easy open reads that don't require advanced passing skills that even guys with tunnel vision. Green reaches that threshold of ball skills where he will never average more urnogers than assists no matter how "selfish" he is due to the very nature that he can break down half court defenses more often than Cam without turning it over less by to easy reads with less turnovers.

Young Jaylen Brown is similar to Cam in that sense. He's a good model for Cam if he wants to be elite. Jaylen Brown also averaged more turnovers than assists when he was young. He's probably the best outcome of that type of player. His primary weakness today is still playmaking and ball handling. But great at everything else.