Career 3pt% Damian Lillard 37.1 Devin Booker 35.7 Ant 35.3 SGA 34.9 Jalen Green 33.7 De'Aaron Fox 33.4 I was curious.
Since these are career numbers, to get to say where Ant is (35.3), Jalen (33.7) would have to be 1.6% better than 35.3 for the next 3 years (36.9) given he has been 1.6% below that for the last 3 years (broadly speaking). If Jalen can shoot 36.9% from 3 for the next 3 years, yes, I think that is a bit daunting (unlikely).
1,6% better than Ant's 35.3 which is 3.2% for Jalen. But yea, 1 more 3 made every game he plays adds up and is significant IMO.
May be semantics but I say it’s flawed because several metrics don’t take into account all of the variables and use approximations. That’s what metrics are. They are just formulas used to try to quantify or explain the physical action or phenomenon we see on the court. That’s very difficult to accurately quantify physical activity and so we try to come close as we think possible. TS% doesn’t necessarily measure shooting efficiency. It simply measures scoring efficiency based on the number of points scored over the number of possessions in which they attempted to score. Basically points per shot. It uses a .44 coefficient for all FT’s and doesn’t count and1s, 3 shot FT’s as a possession. It only counts 2 FT’s as a possession which doesn’t make it 100% accurate. TS% doesn’t measure how skilled a player is at shooting. It simply quantifies how efficient a player is in turning shot attempts into points and FTA are a big part of this formula. So essentially a player that gets a lot of points by getting to the line would have a respectable TS% despite the player may not be as good of a shooter 3pt or 2pt wise.
This is true . TS is actually one of the more favorable metrics for jalen given that one of his minor strengths is getting to the line
interesting. We don’t really know. I liken Green’s situation to Wiggins and Lavine during their time in MIN. Wiggins a former num1 pick regressed after year 3 and MIN decided to cut ties after 5.5 years as he wasn’t the num 1 dominant playmaker they hoped he was. Lavine was let go after 3 years although he did show growth and potential. What level of confidence the organization including Udoka have in Green we don’t really know. And whether they give him 4 years or 5.5 years before making a decision remains to be seen.
And you saw how Dallas deployed several players to stop Brown and Tatum often leaving corner 3 or strong side wing open. Boston did the same against Kyrie and Luka. Difference is Boston had better on ball defenders and they are simply a better 3pt shooting team playing a lot of iso and 5 out ball with a stretch 5. Rockets can’t shoot and Sengun isn’t a stretch 5. The Rockets offense is very compressed which makes it easy to play zone against and stack the paint. Rockets need better shooting period. Its on Green but also the rest of the team to make timely threes when he’s trapped or the ball is kicked out to the perimeter.
SGA and Fox aren’t even “great” 3 pt shooters per se and Booker’s numbers behind the arc have fluctuated a bit. But the focus shouldn’t be all on 3 pt shooting. It’s what a player brings that affects winning. We just saw Jaylen Brown and Tatum shoot inconsistently behind the arc but their dribble drive and ability to make plays to the perimeter or slip screens/rollers provided opportunities for shooters and scorers.
Not to toot my own horn, cause admittedly the presentation/graph isn't super readable... but i did some analysis around this a couple months ago, as my concern with JG wasnt simply his %, but his volatility. And indeed, he goes thru pretty dramatic swings in being awful shooting (a lot of the time) to amazing (some of the time). More than anything... his awful stretches... are just freaking awful awful... over his career he has many 10 game rolling average periods shooting below 25% from 3. MANY. Compared to Booker, Ant, Mitchell (the 3 i chose), only Book has hit this, BARELY, briefly. Id focus on eliminating that first... though its noteworthy ofc that those 3 guys also have stretches of higher 3pt shooting averages over 10 games than Jalen has yet achieved. I mean there's no 2 ways around this... data, eye-test, whatever, he's been a very subpar 3 pt shooter so far
No, he's right, it is a flaw. If two players both get one chance to score, and they both get 3 points, they should have the same TS%, that's what TS is trying to measure. If I make a 3 I have a TS of 150%, but if you get 2 and 1, your TS is 104%. Both situations are 3 points from 1 possession. The flaw is due to the fact that box scores give incomplete information, so assumptions have to be made. If the stat wasn't flawed, these two players would have the same TS%, but this is impossible to accurately calculate from the box score, which is the only thing TS looks at. Over a large sample we hope that the 0.44 coefficient eventually evens out and becomes accurate, but that is not necessarily the case. If you want to read more about it, they talk about it here - https://fansided.com/2015/08/31/nylon-calculus-101-true-shooting-percentage/
What, 10 games is a lot, that's like 12 percent of the season Yup, the biggest problem Green has that makes it really hard to believe in him is his offensive execution. People like to harp on the fact that he creates a lot of offense out of nothing, which is very true. However he has shown for 3 years that he cannot consistently put the ball in the basket when he does create opportunities. I fail to find any spots on the court that is a "money shot" for Green. He might make a bunch of tough layups one night, but then miss the exact same layups from the same spots the next 4 nights. Same goes for open elbow jumpers, he might hit like 5 in a row one game, and then comes next game just hit nothing. Same goes for step back 3's, open 3's, floaters etc. There's really no point in offensive creation when you can execute consistently.
It's really unfortunate... cause, sure, he had other problems, too... but those seem to me to be MOSTLY things that good coaching and development have clearly and obviously improved. Like you want to say last year was really "year 1" for Jalen cause its his first year with Ime... as it relates to being benched and held accountable, playing better on ball and rotational defense, making better reads, prioritizing minimizing turnovers, etc... i am 100% fine and on board with that. But he either can shoot and have touch or not, and being coached by Ime and Ben Sullivan isn't going to meaningfully change that, imo. I'm not saying it can't be improved for good. Something might eventually click there. Finding that form that just works consistently plus more bulk... I'm HOPEFUL... but also doubtful If he can do it, then its all right there for him and the team. Max contracts, all star births, playoff and playoff success. If he can't... MEH. Not sure i want him on the team. He's not good enough at the other stuff even though better, and he doesn't have anything remotely close enough to offensively "wiggle" - pump fakes, simple hesitations, floaters, etc. Its all PURE athleticism then either 3 ball or at the rim. I'm not giving him a long leash at all next year. Not doing 10 game stretches of 25% or under from 3. No sir.
there really isn't any point in offensive creation even though he has a subpar individual scoring efficiency, one of the lowest on the team, yet has the second highest on/off impact on team offensive efficiency only behind FVV on the entire roster, higher than even Sengun.... (Landale is also higher but he played predominately one month of ball during a 13-2 stretch which generates a lot of noise). Look, Jalen needs to be better. He needs to improve his efficiency. No doubt about it. If he wants to join he SGA class of players he needs to up his scoring efficiency. No ifs ands or buts about it. But it's these type of statements that frustrate me. The statements that say his offensive game has no point to it. That self creation is useless if it's o low efficiency. Jalen Green is the only guy on this roster that can break down defenses off the dribble at all three levels. His talent is simply not replicable on this current roster hence why his impact on offense is so positive even with his individual poor efficiency. Is it reasonable to think the team needs an upgrade with breaking down defenses off the dribble? Sure... The hope it's through internal development of Green but the replacement to that talent is not on this current roster. If you want to upgrade that talent you have to trade Green for someone like Mitchell.
The love/hate for players lumped among one another over what amounts to 1 made shot per game (or less) is fascinating.
The number of players who attempted more 3 pointers than Jalen Green this season who shot worse than him: 0 Jalen was 23rd in 3pt attempts per game with 7.4 attempts. Every top 50 player has at least 6 attempts per game. There are 3 player players who shot worse or similar to Green in top 50(Green's percentage is 33.2%): Kyle Kuzma: 33.6% and 6.4 attempts per game. Chucked shots as much as he wanted in a tanking team. Jordan Poole: 32.6% and 7.2 attempts per game. Jordan Poole. Marcus Smart: 31.3% and 6.7 attempts per game. Only played 20 games. Small sample size. This correlation between high volume of attempts and low percentage is something that hurts a team. This is multiple possessions wasted every game. This is the definition of chucking. This is not something you expect from a player playing in a team trying to win. There were 7 players with TS% worse than 55% who attempted 14+ field goals per game: Cade Cunningham: 54.6%. Playing in a tanking team with all-time terrible spacing. A disappointment three years into his NBA career so far. Kyle Kuzma: 54.7%. Tank commander. Paolo Banchero: 54.6%. Hugely overrated player. All of his teammates had good to great efficiency. They were still the 22st offense. Had a good play-off series against Cavs. Kind of a bright spot. Nikola Vucevic: 54.0%. Worst season of his career. He's in a huge decline and was arguably the worst volume scorer of the season. Jordan Poole: 52.9%. Jordan Poole. Jordan Clarkson: 52.9%. Jordan Clarkson. Jalen Green: 54.1% All of these players had 4+ assists per game and Jalen has the worst Assist/TO ratio among them.(Edit: Except Vucevic. He had a better ratio but only has 3.3 assists per game.) TS% does treat all field goals the same. This is the formula used to compute it: Sources: nba.com, Basketball Reference, StatsMuse
