Jalen Green will be the Rockets' Numero Uno

IF he turns into Jordan, IF!, maybe, I'll start to cheer for him. Otherwise, nah.

 

I'm a simple fan who cheer for the Rockets. So my attitude towards players are mostly in line with how much they contribute to the success of the Rockets present and future. If a player is doing less contributing then I like him less. If he's doing more contributing I like him more. If Jalen Green can produce like Ant, then I will cheer him the way Timberwolves fans cheer for Ant. If he's way below that level, don't expect me to care for him nearly as much.

 

Why not use Anthony Edwards like figures maybe, as a vaguely analogous archetype with a similar position/size/role? Ant had 37 games > .360 (so he'd have failed your first suggestion - see how it's hard to take y'all's opinion on what a good shooter is seriously? You have no concept of reality in basketball.) Ant also had 49 games> 0.33. If we look at Ant's last 2 seasons (basically, since "breaking out"):

23-24
37 games > .360
49 games > .330

22-23
34 games > .360
54 games > .330

I think from that it'd be fair to say 50 games at over .330 and 35 games over .360? Seems like an actual realistic/fair benchmark for a high-volume star scorer tbh.

Also as a side note for the person who was banging on about games Jalen had .000 from 3? Ant 22-23 had 5 and last season had 9, it happens, and doesn't mean anything at all beyond the bullshit narratives y'all are trying to run...

 

How do react to a player who contributes to us losing?

 

Right now that's his super power in a way - even if he overall is a poor shooter in the aggregate, the fact that if you give him a few easy dunks/3s, he could get hot and destroy a team single handedly gives him gravity on the court. It explains why his on/off numbers are what they are and why he gets doubled so much. Teams recognize you have to scheme for his upside and make him work for every shot even if the output is wildly inconsistent.

In a way, today he is kind of like a Jamal Crawford/JR Smith type of 6th man microwave scorer. That's a useful player around the league - Malik Monk is doing that for Sacramento today on slightly better efficiency than Green(but still not 'efficient') and he will likely command $30mil/year in the open market. I would think that would be the absolute floor for a guy like Green on the next contract but Green is also only 22 so if a max deal we could potentially give Sengun is about $45mil and older players of similar skill sets to Green's current floor are getting around $30, I think that kind of puts a context around Green's value moving forward unless he REALLY shows he can be that guy at least 70% of the time.

 

I didn't want to put it in such strong terms because there is a sizeable population of the fanbase who think he's good due to his raw stats.

 

So, he has to be Jordan, nothing less? What does Sengun have to turn into?

 

That was sarcasm

 

I was being sarcastic and I am actually one of the people here who doesn't believe in Jalen and has wanted him off the team since the end of his rookie year.

 

What's utterly ridiculous is defending 52 games of .333 or worse.


Maybe my statement is a little over the top but the point is we need much more of the good Jalen and much less of the poor.

He can't have 52 games below league average. Thats 63.4% of the season.

 

cmon now

if all it is is efficiency then why has Ant has positive on-offs his entire career , better obpm since his sophmore year, higher vorp since his sophmore year ?

because while ant is more efficient , he's generally only 20 or 30 points more efficient.

If jalen green has a better dribble package how come ant gets inside more and has better assist numbers ?

Frankly , Ant is a bit overrated , or rather has room for growth as well . He's below league average TS % ... but maybe there is some tradeoff expected there regarding volume . Either way , Ant got to the line alot more this year , and his overall offensive impact numbers suggest his gravity and creation is in a different echelon than green. Maybe he just has better shooter around him , maybe hes setting up guys for better looks.

And while this was mostly about offense, some of the difference in on-off and BPM definitely has to go to ants edge on defense.

 

Sorry, hard to tell sometimes lol

 

No problem

 

I don't deny improvement of other aspects of his game. That's encouraging. But it's not like he became elite in those aspects. If he is average at those things and shoot on average efficiency, he'll be an average player.

Being average isn't good enough to be a star which is what we hope for. But the point is, if he can improve from below average to average, then there is real hope that he will continue to go beyond average.

There is no denying that when Jalen played like a star, we were a very good team. When he played like a below average player, we were a average to below average team.

 

Nah sorry, you don't get to try and flip this at all, you said what you said. Besides, again, because you have no actual context at all for the things you're blowing up over (because as we established, you know sweet **** all about what realistic statistics look like in the NBA) do you realise that Anthony Edwards had 42 games at 330 or below last season? 10 games, that's it, that's what you're freaking out over? Devin Booker had 40. And these are star players hitting those numbers for 50% of a season. Do you see how ridiculous you sound yet? Stop making idiotic proclamations about statistics when you don't even know what the numbers are supposed to be in the first place, stop doubling down on your idiotic takes, and maybe, just maybe, drop some of the ****ing ego and realise that just like the rest of us, you're not even close to an expert.

 

To be honest, I think a lot of people do not realize just how hard the game of basketball really is. They are so immensed in numbers, percentages, that they forget the human element of what it takes to put a basketball in the basket, ESPECIALLY if they have never played.

Thats why it take players 7,8,9 yrs into the league before they can be able to win a Championship....look at Tatum and Brown. ITS A PROCESS

Personally, I think Green is going to be fine but he's going to need time to get to that level of play since he had a rough start under Silas.

 

Anthony Edwards was in the biggest series of his career against Dallas in the WCF. He shot less than 38% overall first 2 Games going .286 from 3 game 2. 0% from 3 game 3 while committing over 5 TO’s in critical situations games 3 & 4 and less than 66% on FT games 3-5. Is this the “not disappearing” in the playoffs you’re referring to? Point is Ant is still growing. Players continue to grow at different rates and trajectories due to multitude of factors. Ant developed in different conditions and circumstances than Jalen including having a better team. If anyone has played organized ball before or even pickup games you would know better players and overall team and environment make you better. And if you can accept Edwards’ WCF disappointment and empathize with his growth then you can certainly understand and empathize with Jalen’s.

 

That’s why I keep saying you can’t quantify everything and merely look at flawed metrics like TS% and evaluate players accurately. It’s about knowing the game and what right looks like. That’s the analysis through knowledge of the game that these certain fans are lacking. Bias comes into play as well. If you already hate or don’t like a player your mind is already conditioned to think the worst of that player no matter what the reality is.

FVV and Brooks who are great defenders missed a lot of defensive assignments last season which is natural. But fans saw Jalen having to rotate to a player that’s not his assignment and laid the blame on him. This is an example of bias and lack of understanding of the game in terms of defensive assignments and rotations. Another one would be Cam frequently not running back on defense after being dejected from a missed shot or TO. Or him not being a competent or willing passer for most of last season which game tape clearly shows yet he is deemed a better “SG” or better passer. Again what’s reality and what fans judge are many times 2 different things.

 

TL;DR version: NBA coaches don't bother to double-team stiffs.

There's a reason opponents game-plan for Green, and that added attention greatly impacts his play. Hopefully this season he'll finally figure it out, because we can't wait forever.

 

Jalen Green 2023-24 Game Log | Basketball-Reference.com