I just see Castle as a wing who can play PG. I think you could sign Gary Trent Jr for 4 years and live with Amen/Castle/Cam/Trent manning the vast majority of the 1-3 minutes. You probably want a bigger wing that plays some “4” in that scenario. I know that Castle/Eason/Smith/Amen give us a lot of defensive juice on the perimeter.
Look at the coach and the GM and what they like. I’d love Sheppard also, but I feel like castle is obvious here.
Even the coach and GM have to realize at some point you cant just keep taking the same player lol. Tari, Amen, Castle, DB... these are all of the same mold, albeit with differences and more upside around the margins. The one reason i can logiaclly argue for such an approach would be: "well, ONE of them should ultimately turn out to be really good if we miss on the other 2 so be it, just playing the odds!"... which logically, i get, but in reality is stupid. How about actually scout lol. The other option would be if you really think the dude is CLEARLY on a tier by himself above the other dudes below him. I dont see how even the most ardent Castle fans could say that about him.
I mean I've said from the beginning that we shouldn't be surprised to see the Rockets go in a different direction because that's been their MO in previous drafts. It's always been height and/or athleticism with the first pick, period. Tools tools tools. And so, this might be a year with a LOT of angry people on ClutchFans and other Rockets fansites if Sheppard is on the board and we pass on him. On the other hand, maybe the analytics department is just that sold on Sheppard and convinces everybody else in the organization. You never really know.
Castle cannot shoot…I know they like Castle because of his size, switch ability and his defense tenacity but he cannot shoot…we need a shot blocker and shooters
I think I have heard Stone directly speak about the importance of physical tools, height/length, athleticism, etc., so I'm not going to downplay that at all. But I've heard that line before (about Rockets always targeting height and/or athleticism in the draft), and to play devil's advocate...do we really think that's true? 2021 Draft: If you don't pick Jalen, surely you'd end up with Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, etc., who I think generally all fit that mold anyway? Sengun obviously *doesn't* fit that type (although you can argue he's athletic in other ways I guess). *Maybe* that descriptor applies to Christopher (though not crazily so?), but Garuba seemed a bit undersized (albeit long) and not super athletic. 2022 Draft: I mean....surely they were just going to take one of the big 3? Chet, Paolo, or Jabari (and I guess all 3 fit that description). Maybe you could argue Murray or Ivey should have been in the discussion, though I think if they picked them, you can probably make a case for them being tall and/or athletic (Ivey in particular seemed like a good athlete even though he's "small"). Tari I guess applies as tools guy (though also analytics crazy I think? or maybe I'm misremembering and he wasn't that great in college?). Then they took TyTy...who I don't think really fits either descriptor. Though he was a late round pick, so not sure it really matters at that point. I'll note I was surprised the Rockets didn't try to get Walker Kessler or some other guys in this draft though. 2023 Draft: Well...again...Amen seemed like the clear favorite? I guess you could argue his brother...or Cam. Most of the guys in the top 10 in general were gifted physically (Cason Wallace being the one possible exception, unless you want to count Scoot?). Of course they got Cam at 20, which I guess you can attribute to targeting tools....or just taking a guy at 20 who should have been gone by 8-10 or so. Anyway, I just wanted to push back on that narrative a bit. It isn't wrong, but I think 95% of the available options were likely going to be physically gifted in some way, and I'm not sure the Rockets necessarily were singling that out as a differentiating factor in their selection process. This is a bit of fluke year relative to those years, so I am curious to see if that impacts things at all.
I would suggest that it's possible there may have been some bet-hedging going on with the later picks in each class. I mean, I think our front office is generally a "BPA" office, but getting an upside guy as the BPA in the top 4, maybe were more willing to pass the baton to the analytics guys or whatever later on in the draft. This previous draft class is the one that I really felt confirmed the front office's leanings. While I had Amen higher on my board than consensus and the clear BPA at #4, there was a lot of argument about that here and also not a totally firm consensus among media analysts that he would be the pick. We saw some people saying Cam Whitmore, Anthony Black, Jarace Walker, even Taylor Hendricks could or should be the pick. But the front office again chose to pick the guy with the best physical tools and the highest ceiling. In any case, I'm not saying I don't think they'll pick Sheppard. (And his physical tools aren't bad by any means, he's a very good athlete, just probably not the best available at #3.) I'm just saying I think there's a very real possibility they'll go in a different direction.
I just don’t see all those guys as the same player. There may be some overlap on Amen and Castle but I disagree about Brooks and Tari. I love Amen but I readily admit, he may never be a good shooter. I don’t feel that way about castle, I think he’s going to be more than fine.
that’s fine. Rockets sitting pretty with found money at #3. Sheppard, Castle, Sarr or Clingan work. I’ve done more research and don’t like the idea of spending a #3 pick on Risacher. Maybe the Wiz bite and push someone down, but I’d bet Clingan and Sarr are off the board at #3. if we trade back to late lotto I like Carter and Carrington…maybe Salaun if our scouts are bought in.
Yes, or "nobody wants to give us enough for us to trade down ..." Or we could just wait until draft day instead of commenting on GM's playing GM games and bs'ing pre-draft.
Oh I get what you mean with the Amen thing (I was going after a slightly different narrative), but I think even then I'd probably quibble with your argument some. I'm pretty sure the Thompsons were more or less the consensus picks if you took out Wemby, Miller, and Scoot? Leading up to the lottery, I just remember folks basically saying you'd get at least one of those guys, though I do think some weren't thrilled with the twins if it came to that. I was probably one of them. But that was when I first started really digging into their games and coming away super impressed (especially with Amen). IIRC I didn't really start looking into the others until after the lottery. Maybe it wasn't a firm consensus, but it seemed pretty close to one IIRC. Maybe I'm remembering wrong. Even then, I think Cam is probably comparable with his size and athleticism (think he was also in the same general tier). I suppose he can get points docked for his medical stuff though. Of course, I think Amen had much better intangibles, so that's why it was an easy choice for me. It is unclear to me whether the Rockets agreed (maybe combined with whatever analytics you could get), or if they just took him because they thought he was slightly more gifted physically. As for Black, Hendricks, etc., those didn't seem that serious, especially if they didn't involve a trade down. I know people here threw out those names, but people are throwing out guys likely in the 14-25 range for this draft too. Anyway I have no idea what they're going to do either. I view most of these guys as the same tier, same rough raw ceilings (different achievable ceilings I guess), etc. I do think they'll go BPA, but it will be based on whatever formula they have for that. I'd argue that formula is more complicated than some suggest (which is kinda what I was getting at earlier), but I have no idea exactly what the formula is either (nor do I have all the data that feeds into it). This draft probably will say more about their draft process than previous years.
June 26th can't get here any faster. These rumors and crap analysis everywhere on TV and the Interwebz is getting tiring.
I kinda expect them to just keep that pick as well. I just don't see the incentive for another team to give up a haul to move up when I personally wouldn't mind 5 or 6 different people at that pick. If we end up with Sarr, Reed, Castle, Clingan, Buzelis or Holland, I guess I'm happy enough as long as the team had a workout with whomever they take. Everyone in the draft has significant weaknesses so it's a crapshoot either way. I'm out on Risacher, Topic's stock is dead and Dillingham is way too small for what he does so those would be the only possibilities that would upset me.
