I have grown tired of Jose Abreu

Goddamnit. We're screwed.

 

What do you want him to say?

The decision to pursue Abreu was made by Crane, Click and Baker. It wasn't made by Jeff Bagwell.

Jeff Bagwell did not make the decision to give Abreu three seasons.

All Bagwell did was defend Abreu in the media - and agreed to work with Abreu in Florida when Crane and Brown asked him to.

If you want to be pissed at anyone - be pissed at Crane and Click and Baker.

Same deal on the Montero signing.

I don't really have any strong opinions about Bagwell one way or the other - but the hatred for the best player in franchise history is just bizarre.

 

No - Click was part of the problem. Crane had a lot of people in the organization, that had been with the Astros tell them that Click was a problem as he came in and wanted to make all decisions and have control over everything - when Crane made it clear to Click that he wasn't being hired to reinvent the wheel.

Click wasn't the only issue - and some of those same people upset at Click were let go by Brown, but Click handled it like a child. Having said that - if I were a team with low budgets traditionally, I would look strongly at Click as a potential GM going forward. I believe that he is smart and capable, but his people skills just need to improve.

 

Click wanted to be able to come in and hire and fire guys and take complete control of the organization. The issue is that when Click was interviewed, he was told by Crane that his role was to blend in with the people already in the building and the philosophy that had already developed. He also came in and very early made enemies in the organization.

Does Click know baseball? Yeah

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jeff-bagwell-on-jose-abreu-being-released-by-astros

Looks like he did comment... but I was more curious on what he liked he saw back in Florida that warranted the positive report that he was ready... comments also suggest that he is still an old-school guy that overemphasizes RBIs...

“First let me say this, José Abreu has been nothing more than a professional with class and a great player in his career,” Bagwell said. “To get sent down like he did and take that [Minor League] assignment was a very, very difficult thing for a player of his caliber. You’ve got to give him a ton of credit for that. It just didn’t work out. When we signed him, if you look at his 2022 numbers -- analytically, data-driven, all that -- he was the guy to get. It just didn’t work out.”

[...]

“He went down there and made some adjustments,” Bagwell said. “[Assistant hitting coordinator] Rene Rojas spent a lot of time with him. I went down there to see him. I was happy with what I saw. When he came back, it didn’t pan out enough for the organization to see that we could keep trying to see if he could get better, because of the dire need for us to win now.”

[...]

"Four, five, six in the lineup or five, six, whatever, that’s where José needed to hit, and it just didn’t work out. That’s what’s hard is because we still have to find RBIs. That’s the bottom line of trying to win.”

 

Yep; and that's where the nerds - if empowered - can step in. Here's what he's worth; here's your wiggle room; here's the line separating smart/defensible and dumb/indefensible.

Click would've known the line was, at the very least, 2 years. He also would've counseled on the absurdity of (over)paying older players for past results, or, as we now know it: the back-of-the-baseball-card approach.

Bagwell wants to paint the picture that Abreu's rapid decline was impervious to *any* plausible predictions - and he's not exactly wrong. No one thought Abreu was cooked. But plenty of people recognized age was a significant factor, and just flat-out ignoring that - which the Astros very clearly did - was foolish.

 

I've seen you repeat this about who made the decision and is ultimately responsible a few times now...and still a lot of fools blaming Jeff Bagwell. It is absolutely bizarre.

 

I could see division rivals taking him, or rivals (Dodgers, Spankees) taking a chance. We let Abreu go, but imagine if we signed Blake Snell and we can blame on Bagwell too.

 

This is the first I'm seeing. Are we meant to believe that Click - who was in the process of being let go - and Baker were the ones that pursued Abreu? And that Bagwell had little to do with it? None of that makes sense. Why would Click be anywhere near our most significant FA signing in recent memory? And wasn't he let go bc he butted heads w Baker, Crane, Bagwell, et al? Baker being involved I absolutely could believe but both being involved flies contrary to everything we've heard regarding the situation to date. If Click was involved it seems pretty clear that he purposely sandbagged us with that albatross of a contract as a nice parting gift.

Besides, the reason Bagwell catches heat is bc he's the one that openly lamented our existing and wildly successful strategy as being "too analytical" and that "baseball is played by humans not computers." He's also been specifically mentioned repeatedly as part of the Crane's inner circle in personnel decisions.

Or do we think piss poor personnel decisions and our rapid descension into mediocrity had nothing to do with alleged shift in power and philosophy?

 

So you are saying that because Click and Baker butted heads, they could not agree on which FA 1b to pursue?

At the time, Abreu was by far the best FA 1b option on the market. Bell was available but coming of a mediocre year. Rizzo was available but never going to leave the Yankees.

At that time, Click had every reason to think he was going to be the GM in 2023. The shock of the offer designed for him to not accept it was what set him off.

And the idea that Bagwell is involved in contract decisions is laughable. He is a coach, recruiter, and a mouthpiece, who has his own opinions.

He may have wanted Abreu and even told Crane so, but no way he even suggested years or money.

Abreu was coming off of a 4.3 bWAR season.

Typical regression due to age is 1/2 WAR per year.

The Astros should have expected him to have 3.8, 3.3, and 2.8 WAR which would each be worth over $20M per season.

In hindsight, the contract sucked. Nobody knows the future.

 

General FYI: Click left the Stros 17 days before Abreu was signed.

 

How long do you think the research, Crane approval, and negotiations lasted before the signing?

Are you saying Crane, Bagwell, and whomever else started this when Click left and completed the entire process in 17 days?

 

Nope, just saying that Crane was the GM who signed Abreu. And negotiations don't take all that long once there's mutual interest.

 

This franchise also has a history of barely meeting deadlines to get the players they want.

 

So who signed Abreu?

 

Cold hard facts (according to statsmuse):
Astros with JAbreu: 14-21, 65-win pace
Without: 24-19, 90-win pace

 

such a weirdly extreme take