If we draft Sheppard or Castle, what does that mean for Jalen Green?

Don’t really understand where people are getting this third year leap theory from. I have not seen any study supporting this. But rather writers like Zach Lowe have used this term consistently without much elaboration in terms of data or studies to back up this premise. But Even Lowe in a 2013 article mentioned “year 3 or 4” is when players usually break out. Many writers agree that player progression isn’t linear and their growth and development timelines vary. Wardell Curry didn’t have a 3rd year leap. Neither did fellow klay thompson. Lillard was an all star by year 2 but didn’t have spectacular numbers and his 3rd year wasn’t exactly a leap either. Then you have bench guys like Jaylen Brown or Brunson who had leaps after year 3. Let’s go back a bit and guys like Nash or Ray Ray Allen or Billups didn’t have no 3rd year leaps. Again the trajectory to stardom and overall growth for players is different for each player and this can depend on factors including how good their team is overall. Let’s not set our expectations so rigidly on third year leaps.

 

Not to mention that arbitrary "x number of years in the league" completely discounts the ages or experience levels of the players either. Take Jalen Brunson as a great example of somebody who not only broke out in his 5th NBA season, but also played 3 years of college. Jalen Brunson became a star player age 26. Something tells me if it took any of our core 6 until they were 25/26 then the CF fanbase would've already spat so much vitriol their way that even if they were still on the Rockets, they'd be looking to jump ship asap next contract.

 

Cam Whitmore is from Baltimore and no doubt watched Carmelo Anthony from his Area.

Cam Whitmore looks like and plays like a Young Carmelo Anthony a SF/PF.

 

That’s true, but things are different for players drafted #1 or #2. There are virtually no late bloomers at the top of the draft.

 

You think?

Jaylen Brown 3rd - Breakout year 4/5
Brandon Ingram 2nd - Breakout year 4/5
Bradley Beal 3rd - Breakout year 5

Just some recent examples of it not being a hard "3rd year" line at all. If Jalen blows up in the next 2 years he wouldn't even be a "late" bloomer anyway, y'all just have no concept of developing star players because we haven't had to develop any since Yao.

 

The 3rd year argument rests on an assumption and generalization not necessarily backed by any data. It’s an expectation that fans and media have created that may not be based on reality.

 

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The 3rd year argument rests on an assumption and generalization not necessarily backed by any data. It’s an expectation that fans and media have created that may not be based on reality. It’s unfair

Don’t forget Chauncey Billups (year 6). Or let’s go back further. Stockton. Payton. These 2 didn’t break out until year 4.

 

If we draft Sheppard it probably won't mean much at the end of the day, if we draft Castle it'll be telling of the future the envision Green having with this roster.

They need to hit on this pick more than ever if they keep this pick and make it. This player could either by a luxury new piece to our rotation or a luxury trade piece for a bigger star further down the line.

I firmly believe there are two viable options at 3, either Reed or Donovan. Castle may be a star but his skillset does not marry up well with our core 6 as currently constructed... while still attempting to maximize their full potential.

 

No one said it's a hard and fast rule but I think generally front offices will use it to make long term decisions on players - maybe that's when GMs start to make decisions about ceilings. However, I don't think you can prove that by looking at HOFers only - half of that group comes into the league killing teams from the first few years(Lebron, Kyrie, Luka, etc) so really you want to also consider the average NBA starter who maybe isn't quite an all star but nonetheless takes a leap that makes them a solid NBA starter on a relatively good early career deal....but for what it's worth - Curry, Thompson AND Giannis all made leaps somewhere between years 3 and 4 and saw significant production increases in their 4th year followed by recognition for voting in MIP, All Star, MVP, etc.

All I'm saying is the pandemic was super weird and I don't think it's a stretch to say that most players who were in those critical stages of early development during that time were impacted in some way so let's not necessarily rush to lower player ceiling projections as soon as we would in other years. 3 All stars/all NBA players in a draft is a relatively weak draft and from what I can tell the 2021 draft only has one so far who has done it(Barnes) and likely one more who will eventually make an all star game(Sengun). If that draft ends up only netting two all star/all NBA players - that would be a super weak draft and would have meant everyone missed on the draft prospects at the time when it was touted as a very deep draft. It just doesn't quite add up.

 

The pandemic was not limiting talents developing but it was a period in which scouts could not move freely to watch prospects.

But athletes were still practicing, were still in the gym, were still scrimmaging at some capacity......

Not a good enough excuse, merely overall a weird time.

 

I don’t necessarily disagree with you. I just caution anyone using the “3rd year leap” phrase since it is conjecture and assumption rather than fact. And I question why people use this as a baseline when there’s inconclusive data to support this considering that players’ trajectories and timelines have great variance.

 

Not an excuse - there is a wikipedia page you can find without much searching. Look it up, Jalen Green's lone "season" in the G league ended up being just barely over a month long and 11 g-league teams didnt even field a roster so he played less games against a much smaller, less diverse field of players. College teams saw a shortened season and a number of early season tournaments and showcase games were cancelled - yes, they still did the things to make the NCAA money(namely hold a televised tourney to sell ads) but the logistics of how frequently they played certainly impacted the amount and quality of competition that year for any player.

Just being in the gym isn't necessarily enough - you have to be in game situations against a wide breadth of different players to get the full benefit of development - one game against physical defenders, another against shorter but quicker guys, another against smart/savvy defenders, etc. You learn about your weaknesses through those experiences and if the field is narrowed and the number of opportunities for that exposure is reduced, players(and scounts) would have less data points to evaluate.

 

Funny how the "3rd year leap" talking point that was all the Jalen Green cultists wanted to talk about this time last year is being abandoned by them now that the "3rd year leap" didn't happen....their guy was still terrible.

I guess it's time to hear about a "4th year leap"

 

All Jalen has to do is become a league average 3 pt shooter and they will give him an extension or let him go to RFA and match if it’s reasonable. If he does that we will make the playoffs. As much as you want to talk it into being his make or break season, it is not. All it really is whether they extend him or make him an RFA. It is make it or break it for Jalen getting a max extension that is all.

 

Yeah, I don't think it will necessarily make or break Jalen's NBA career--but I will say it could easily make or break his career with the Rockets. I think there's a very real possibility they decide to part ways with him if he doesn't show improvement, or especially if he takes a step backward.

With his athleticism and the flashes he's shown, he will keep getting chances with NBA teams for awhile yet regardless.

 

I think it’s a leftover thought process from bygone eras when players had to go to college first. By their third year they were 23-24 years old and entering their primes. We’re drafting teenagers and expecting them to be all stars before they can buy beer now. Instant gratification won’t hear about teenagers not being able to steamroll HOFers and MVP candidates.

I just try to stick with the 23 year old season. There’s plenty of evidence showing guys taking a step forward, and for the ultra elites another one around 25 years old.

 

Like I said - they probably use it because they have to have an inflection point in year 3/4 to make a decision on the 'next contract' for those players after year 4. Right or wrong, the contract renewal forces a GM/team to make a decision about the future of that player even if it's "too soon".

 

Sure, but you say that as if it's no big deal....He's currently the 12th worst 3 point shooter in the NBA among qualified players, or the 149th best shooter if you want to look at it that way.

His 3 point % has gotten worse every single season.....so to think he's going to stop that trend and magically improve overnight is more wishful thinking than anything.

You don't want to believe it's a "make or break" season....but it's his last under contract and he was absolutely pathetic for 3 seasons. Given that he'll be looking for a new contract after the season, it's 100% "make or break". If he's anywhere near as terrible as he's been his entire career thus far, he won't be getting ANY contract offer from the Rockets....and they might look to dump him for whatever another team is willing to give up to get him at the trade deadline.

He'd have to basically have an all star caliber season for the Rockets to even consider a max extension because Sengun is the guy in line to get that.

 

If he shoots league average from 3 he will be an all-star candidate. I’m with you, if he can’t do that one thing or regresses on defense and playmaking then he is done (hopefully) with the Rockets. What keeps being overlooked is his age. His shooting is the only thing that is holding him back. If we let him walk for nothing he will get a big deal, if not max, from somebody. Potential is still a commodity in the NBA and 22 year old players with his potential are in great demand.

 

Sure, but saying that if one of the worst shooters in the entire league magically became a MUCH better shooter than they've ever been before is like saying "if Dwight Howard learned to shoot league average from the free throw line"....easy to say, HIGHLY unlikely to happen.

I don't overlook his age, but he's going to be 23 next season and he's never been a starting caliber player. If he doesn't massively improve this next season, he needs to be shown the door and a more promising SG prospect in Cam Whitmore needs to get his shot.