I think my one big knock on Carter is he's kinda old (basically Jalen's age I think?), so I'm not sure there's as much room for improvement for him as other prospects. Maybe he already had his big development leap, and while he can certainly improve, I'm not sure if I'd expect big leaps in his skillset. Of course, he doesn't really have a lot of holes in his game either (especially if you don't need him to be a playmaker), so he can still contribute to a NBA team fairly early on IMO. He won't really need a huge developmental leap to likely be good at the NBA level (minor quibbles aside). I'm not in love with trading down just for the sake of trading down, so it would have to be a *really* good offer to do so (maybe something like that crazy overpay Blazer package?). If that were to happen, then yes, I would like Devin Carter. Otherwise, I'd probably look at one of the younger prospects.
Piggybacking on what I said earlier, I wonder if it would be better to just throw full MLE money at De'Anthony Melton*, who would probably give you a lot of the things a Devin Carter would likely give (maybe better since there's actual NBA data with Melton). Then you can take a swing at a Holland, Williams, Salaun, Topic, etc at #9 or whatever pick you expect with the trade down. Or maybe the plan should be to trade out of the draft? Maybe you get 3+ future decent FRPs or something? Would any of those options be better than drafting Carter and signing...I don't know...Malik Beasley (yuck)? *I assume Melton will actually have a lot of suitors, and I'm not sure the odds are good he'd sign here even with a full MLE offer. So there's that too. Not sure there's another player like Melton available as a FA, at least not this year. And yes, I think this is the 49th time I've mentioned Melton as a possible MLE target...clearly I have my preferences there.
If I were getting a guard like Melton in free agency I think I would be more likely to trade up than down? Try to grab Sarr or Risacher. But maybe one of those two falls to three?
Guess it depends on the price. If it is like that rumored SAS offer (which seems dumb IMO, but OK), then I assume it would maybe need to be like #3 this year and maybe a future Nets pick (maybe top 4 protected)? I guess #2 could demand a bit less, though I primarily want Sarr out of those 2 (though I don't really care that much about either, and Risacher is probably closer to 4th or 5th on my board at best anyway). I would rather just stay at 3 (Risacher fell to #4 in the last Game Theory mock IIRC), or trade down/out for a too-stupid-to-pass-up offer from another team. Of course you'd have to do all this without knowing for sure that you can sign Melton too. Because NBA teams and free agents don't talk until free agency starts later in the summer. Everyone knows that.
This actually sounds like a Stone/Udoka move. Sorta like with the Dillon Brooks move. Like you said, it would free them up more in the draft.
To be clear, I'd probably just stay pat at #3 and draft your favorite prospect (Reed "Steph Nash" Sheppard) + target Melton or whoever in the summer (or *maybe* wait until next summer if there's not much there). But yeah, if some team wants to throw a crazy offer at the Rockets to trade up to #3, I'd look into doing something like that. FWIW I would *probably* not do #3 + salary for #9 + Kennard/Smart. I'd want more, which I doubt MEM would offer, but there should be a heavy price to move up to #3, especially for another team in the conference. And especially if it helps them get a player like Clingan, who I think could *really* help them out. I'd almost rather play it out so that Clingan gets drafted by POR or whoever, and then MEM might end up in a tough situation at #9 (either taking a prospect who won't really fit with them, or forced to trade down themselves).
Not gonna lie, I've thought about this quite a bit. If (and that's a big "if") the Rockets get a good offer of future assets to trade down, I'd be quite pleased coming away from this draft with Devin Carter plus good future assets. I love Carter's game and think he could be a long-term rotation player on a good team.
I wouldn’t rule out Carter (or any player) being successful at the nba level actually. There’s just other guys I’d prefer given his makeup. I don’t see him being a starter on a championship team. Maybe a rotation player. Jrue Holiday when he was actually a third option with Milwaukee averaged about 8 assist in that playoff run. Carter is a heavy usage guard that is bad at playmaking. I’d feel better about him if he was a forward but even then there’s other guys I’d rather take a swing on given where this team is at.
Respectfully, whether it’s drafting Carter or Castle, signing Melton, or trading for Bridges or Smart - I just don’t understand the idea that the Rockets would leave this offseason having primarily spent assets to acquire more defense-first players. IMO, the Rockets glaring problem last season and going forward is a lack of offensive skill. I think the FO and Ime know that and have messaged that. I know Ime likes a strong defense, but he’s not a caricature. We’re not trying to build a team of Sengun + 7 defenders with 30th percentile NBA offensive skill. A fully actualized Carter (or a Melton / Bridges / Smart / Caruso) doesn’t improve our core much at all, even if they’re good players. That player type doesn’t stack infinitely.
Carter looks good in highlight clips. I was going to say that he could be this year's Brunson (an overlooked sleeper who turned into a superstar). Then I looked up Burnson's and Carter's numbers. Both guys came out after junior year. Brunson's stats were better across the board, except for rebounds. Scoring was somewhat close. Everything else on offense that is important for a guard (3p%, TS%, assist/TO), Brunson was way better. Brunson played on a championship team while Carter played on a mediocre team. Brunson was picked #33. One of the reasons Brunson was picked so low was *gulp* his size, especially a below average wingspan. And his defense was suspect. Carter is now being seen by many people as a possible lottery pick because he has great wingspan and vertical. So he has the physical tools to be a good defensive PG but is only okay at offensive skills. In a normal draft, he probably would be picked toward the end of the first round or like Brunson early second round.
FWIW on Melton specifically (since I think I brought him up), I do think he has potential to be a decent 3pt shooting threat (4-5+ 3pt attempts per game at 36%-41% the last 4 years). Possibly some other solid offensive traits, though looking closer apparently he sucks at the rim and at other spots. He would primarily be a defensive player, but I think he's probably good enough to do well on offense. I'd much prefer him over a Hield, Beasley, etc. I also throw him out as an alternative to a Castle, Carter, etc, which would allow you to get more potential offense from the draft. I do think Melton would likely be a 6th-8th guy in the rotation, which is probably why he wouldn't want to sign here (though I guess he could be traded after a year or two). I'd be fine holding off on MLE targets until next year or later though. Just got a soft spot for Melton since I liked him when Rockets drafted him. Agree with everything else though. I do think you want players who can stay on the court defensively, but beyond that I definitely want to target more offense.
