When the rest of the world catches up to the fact he can't develop that shot. His trade value will be that of a Thybulle or Tate. It's fine for teams to have these type of players, but it's not what teams build around.
I have started to think the closest 1% best case comp is something closer to D-Wade or Jimmy Butler than a Magic Johnson or whatever--but to be clear I think there is very little chance Amen gets to that level. A realistic ceiling (10% outcome) is closer to something halfway between Rondo and Andre Kirilenko. An absolute monster defender who can run the point or play on the wing. More of a guy who makes two or three all-star teams and all-defensive teams than a true top 10 player.
Your takes are usually pretty good but you're way off on Amen--his feel for the game, court vision, and athletic traits are far, far above that level of roleplayer. Even if he doesn't reach his ceiling and his jump shot never improves at all he'll still be much better than those guys. I think he's already shown that his absolute floor is a very high-end bench player, the kind who can be a key piece on a championship roster. Tate isn't that guy, he's like the 10th man on a contender and doesn't see the floor in the playoffs barring serious injury problems.
I think Amen has the highest potential of any player on the team, higher than Jalen and Sengun. I think we can totally prioritize his development above the other players, and that we can craft a team around him as a hub as early as 2025-2026. Not that he demands that we change our team composition in any large fashion; he's already making winning plays no matter where you put him on the court. 4.3 win shares on 22 minutes per game in only 62 games (.149 WS/48). 18.3 PER. As a rookie, with all the aforementioned limitations in ball handling and shooting others have listed. Mainly doing it by being in the dunker's spot on offense and playing tip top defense on the other end. He is a flat out winner; he will find ways to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses, and we can also trust that he will work on his weaknesses as we saw his development in the middle of his rookie season. We're doing all the right things for him based on what I've seen so far. Get him on the court in an off ball role where he can still break down defenses once the passes roll around to him. Pretty much every NBA defender is a mismatch for him outside of the all-defensive team wings (Jaden McDaniels, Herb Jones, etc). While he's getting playing time, he's learning from FVV, and I fully believe that by the time FVV's contract is up in two more years, we will be well served putting the ball in his hands as the starting PG. That's also why I'm against drafting a PG in this draft. Anybody you have hopes for learning to be a PG in the NBA, it's a 3-5 development process minimum. We've already ticked one year off the box for Amen. Whoever we draft that's a PG will be starting back at zero. Maybe Sheppard and Castle can provide positive value off ball, the way Amen did as a rookie, but we already have a logjam at that role, whereas there's no doubt Clingan would provide positive value right off the bat as a rotational big.
Some of these views takes years to unfold, but we can only go by what he currently has done. And this past year, he's a solid defender but needs to work on that shot. Also hopefully he stays healthy. Phrases like 'he can guard 1-4, and an occasional limited 5' is what Rockets announcers and Silas used to describe Tate. It's possible Amen will improve, but the shot is what everyone here (including the Amen supporters) have said pre-draft, which was it needed work. I shyed away from ceiling and floor, as Thybulle is someone who he may realistically be. Wasn't meant as insult/compliment. Thybulle even had a hot 3pt start in POR this year. His career 3p% is at 33.8, if Amen had that, you guys would be over the moon.
I don’t think it would get that low since he’s not an undersized 6’4 PF like Tate and can do some sort of playmaking unlike Thybulle…guys like Amen go from starter to spot minute bench player when teams decide to stop guarding them in the playoffs
The breaking defense ability without losing the ball due to his mediocre handles and higher center of gravity when he dribbles.
I agree that his floor is well below a star-level player, I just think he's already shown he's more valuable than Tate or even Thybulle (who is better than Tate for sure). He just does a lot more things than those guys--scores on higher volume, grabs more rebounds, generates more assists, etc. And that's as a rookie--surely he'll get at least a bit better even if his development doesn't go as we hope. I would place his floor as closer to a Bruce Brown, Kyle Anderson level player (not player comps, just saying in terms of value). By the way, I think Bruce Brown was a huge difference-maker for the Nuggets and I think losing him is a large part of why they were so much worse this season
The playmaking is a wait and see for me. He had some of that in OTE, and lot of people are basing a it on that. I've yet to see it in the NBA. By playmaking, I mean half court sets not the occasional fast breaks. We'll see. One thing I learned in the rebuild last few years is that the draft profile means little until the NBA coaches actually get their hands on the players. And then, there's so much development that's required (for all the young guys). Fans here are pro-youth, which I'm not against, but reading the room, the fact that Rockets org really want those vets... that's for a reason. Learning and growth takes time. Org happy with the .500, whichbwas considered over-achieving. Ime knows it won't be easy to improve over it, which may be why he and Stone are very needy to get a star, or a borderline star (Mikal). Large internal growth is not guaranteed. I see what fans and CF are preferring and the. I see what Ime and Stone wants to do, then, you can see their preference. Which is at least 50% vets, 50% young core. On the fans side, you guys want 80-90% young core.
People here are down on Tate, he won't win the popularity award against Amen. How about we make a simple deal. Tate represented the Rockets 2022 at the rising stars game (as a sophomore). No doubt Amen will get minutes next season. Would you say Amen can make the sophomore team next all star weekend? Easy enough bar to clear?
Chuck became a starter. Something Amen hasn't done yet (except for the injuries to other players) If People want to give out flowers early they're welcomed to. Dillon and Tari, if Amen can beat them out in the rotation, and get most of the minutes then let's talk. Fight for the job. A bit tired of high draft position determining minutes. If it's truly meritocracy, let them duke it out (like Sengun did). Earn the starting spot.
So no deal? Didn't you say Amen is better than Tate? I'm not necessarily disagreeing.. just clarifying. Will Amen not out do the other sophomores next season, I didn't think it was a hot take, since everyone here seems to be so high on him.
100% spot on there. He creates space off the dribble in an elite way such that we are willing to put up with some the poor shots he takes or decisions he makes once in that space because if he can clean up that part of his game, he quickly collapses defensive schemes. He forces doubles with that skill to the tune of being doubled nearly as much as Steph Curry last year despite obviously much lower efficiency. I think his recognition of where the double is coming from has improved significantly as well but he is still hit or miss on how to respond to the "next pass" within a scheme and he doesn't seem to connect defensive schemes to anticipate where the rotations are coming from like good playmakers do....but if he cleans up his shot consistency, that might not necessarily matter if he can just create space and get a bucket when the ball finds him and is otherwise 'just a really good checkers players' finding open guys compared to guys who play chess like Luka, Kyrie, Harden, etc. Aside from Booker being a more consistent 3pt shooter, they are very similar at this stage in their careers if you ask me.
What separates a no-shot Amen from guys like Tate (and maybe Thybulle) is his physical abilities. He can go from the top to the basket with the ball in a flash. Neither Tate nor Thybulle, and few other players, can do that. And I am surprised there weren't more discussions about his offensive rebounding skill. That ability does not depend on his ability to shoot. A lot of his points come from put back off the offensive board. He can do that because of his lightning speed to get around boxouts, amazing body control, and most of all his ability to get off the floor faster than everybody else. I haven't seen the comp with Dennis Rodman. Amen is actually very close to Rodman in his physical measurements. What made Rodman such a great offensive rebounder was his ability to get off the floor while fighting for position, and the speed of the second and third hops is the difference between losing the rebound and getting it or tipping it in. Rodman, of course, was a master of leverage and tricks which Amen needs to learn more.
I thought about Rodman--unlikely that Amen gains Rodman's preternatural sense for rebounding though (especially since he will likely focus more on ballhandling and shooting as he develops). I also think Amen already has more offensive skills than Rodman did. You're right though, in terms of athletic traits and innate feel for where to be there are some similarities.
Ridiculous. Amen is a superstar in the making even if he only develops a league average jump shot. If the media knew anything about basketball he will be first team defense next year (if Ime plays him 30+ mins).
