But it really needs to end now. All teams win at least 30% (49-113) All teams lose at least 30% (113-49) The other 40% are 50/50 based on talent, decision making, health, and luck. Let's say the Astros win today, just so we have an easy 100 games left to work with. 28-34. Based on 30-30-40 I just laid out: That puts the range between 98-64 and 58-104. If the Astros can manage to win 75% of the 50/50 games = 88-74 If they keep playing 500 baseball another 10 games: that becomes 96-66 and 60-102 with 75% of 50/50 games getting them to: 85-77. They are running out of time.
Very good post and math. The season gets late early, and they cannot keep hoping the rest of the West plays down to competition. It will take 88-90 to make the playoffs, and they already will need some luck to get there as you show.
No doubt, the Astros need to get hot. winning 10 out of 12 or 13 out of 15 or something like that. Get back to or above .500... then reassess where you are in the standings. The current schedule suggests its possible. This will be a pretty telling stretch.
But the good news is: Let's say they can go 8-2 in those 10 games (3 vs Angels, Giants, and Tigers, 1 vs Cards) Suddenly those numbers become: 98-63 and 63-99 With 75% of 50/50 games getting them to 90-72 It just takes a 10 game hot streak to get them in position and then they must keep playing Astro baseball for 90 more games.
Exactly, the difference this year is they dont have the pitching they've had in past years. Also Crane/Brown/Espada continue to force Abreu/Chas etc... in the lineup at the expense of winning games.
So I did not realize that Bostock was the son of the former Negro League great, Bostock. Which got me to thinking - and I believe I may have the answer to the greatest "what if" player in baseball history. Josh Gibson is the obvious answer - but there was a pitcher named Slim Jones that no one remembers or talks about, but at 19 years old he was clearly better than Satchell Paige, he was without question the best player in the Negro League and the big leaguers that faced him said that he was unhittable. Slim Jones grew up in Baltimore if I remember correctly, and his mother died when he was young. His father did not have a lot in common with a kid, so he bonded with his kid after working 15 ships at the company by playing catch with Slim. His father slowly taught him how to pitch, and Slim developed a unique crossfire delivery that gave him exceptional control at a very early age. His father would set up almost impossible challenges for his young son to knock pennies off the edges or walls far away. In no time, Slim never missed. Eventually Slim in his early teens snuck away and played softball and then sandlot baseball. His hands were massive and he would throw various pitches with softballs, that few people could throw well with a baseball. He was supposedly over 6'6" tall by his early teens, and he soon dominated the sandlots in the 1920's and 1930's. At the time, Baltimore supposedly had one of the 2-3 highest quality of sandlot players in the country. The Baltimore Black Sox saw him pitch and signed him the same day. Four days later he made his debut and threw 4 shutout innings and struck out 11. He really struggled the next two years adapting living away from his father and traveled for the first time. He spent his age 19–20-year-old seasons in the pen and he worked on his mound poise and trusting his raw stuff. After working out with Schoolboy Rowe - he was declared ready to start. As a 20-year-old Slim Jones was not only the best pitcher on the Black Sox, but he was the best baseball player in the world and lead his team to a Negro League World Series title - including in the best Negro League game ever, where he and Satchell Paige dueled to a 1-1 tie after 12 innings. Jones for the 1934 season would start 22 games and make 8 appearances out of the pen. He pitched on 3 or less days rest the entire season. Overall Jones started 22 games and completed 22 of them. He had 21 quality starts on the season and went 9 or more innings in every start. His overall record was 22-4 with a 1.29 era and 6 saves...... 21 quality starts. On the year he gave up 29 earned runs and 9 of those were in one inning when he pitched with the flu. He ended his season drawing crowds of over 30,000 people by the end of his season and was facing and holding his own against Paige - he won the deciding WS game throwing a shutout and hitting a double for the winning run. In the off season he was invited to join the best pitcher in the big leagues - Dizzy Dean in playing exhibition games with Lou Gehrig, Jimmy Foxx and countless others. In the records of these events, Slim bested Dizzy Dean and was unhittable. At the age of 20 Slim had passed Paige as the biggest draw in the Negro Leagues and was even named the all star game starter over Paige - and his team and himself had just outdueled Paige for the WS. Coming off the best season in Negro League history and at 20 years old, Slim would be injured, then addicted to alcohol, then homeless and finally dead before he turned 25 years old. Slim hurt his arm barnstorming with Dean - and also took up drinking. His arm never recovered, and after 3-4 years of pitching injured without success, he froze to death at 25 years old in the street, after he sold his jacket for alcohol.
Opponents are currently drenched in luck right now. Supposedly, everything evens out over the course of a season. Astros will play better, plus get lucky. Meyers had a bloop hit yesterday. Hader, Spaghetti, and Brown are settling down. Astros won't get 500 OPS at 1B all season. Yordan will not hit 200 OPS points below his career average. Pressly will either play better or get demoted (might already happened). Next... Astros might not be -5 every game with unfavorable ball-strike calls. Prepare for more 1st-to-3rd and 2nd-to-home in Houston's favor. .
I can't really top that, but specific to Astros, how about John Paciorek? But I don't know how he was regarded as a prospect.
I think the pitching still has a chance to be better. Javier was not consistent last year. Same with Hunter who was still figuring things out. Framber was amazing in the first half and fell off a cliff in the second half after the ankle injury. JV was good to great after they reacquired him… seems like he’s on the same track this year but every year he gets older, the ceiling goes down a tick as well (but still worth it). France was solid… till he was’t. Garcia throwing full bullpen sessions, still on track for later this month. LMJ throwing full bullpen session, will be a little behind Garcia. Blanco is literally found gold Spencer has adjusted faster than Hunter did last year and has far more upside than France. Abreu/Chas should never be required to produce a ton… but when Yordan/Bregman/Altuve all struggle together, their roles are magnified. Hopefully Tucker won’t be down too long and Yordan/Bregman continue to course correct this month.
Agreed with this. However I expect anybody in the Stros starting lineup to be producing at or preferably above avg MLB production and if Abreu/McCormick cant produce like this they need to find somebody who can, either by bringing somebody up or through trade or both.
I did not know much of this about Ralph. Baseball aside, dating Ava Gardner and Liz Taylor is pretty awesome.
Agreed... what is your explanation for this? - Luck - Bias (further trashcan punishment) - Framing skills All of those factors probably play a role and they're the only possibilities IMO (unless you have another) -- but put percentage on each _____ My thoughts are: Luck - 70% Bias - 20% Framing - 10%
John Paciorek was my PE coach in Southern California over 20 years ago. He's a bleeding heart liberal who posts long screeds on Facebook every now and again. Interesting guy. One of his sons played minor league baseball but never made it. He was also a childhood victim of Catholic priest sexual abuse.
With Tucker out, does the lineup start: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez? Or Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman? At least Dusty isn't here to just plug Cabbage into the #2 spot.
Moving Bregman out of the cleanup spot when he is finally starting to produce big time is so Joe Espada. #InOverHisHead #SinkingShip
