Kyle Tucker - What's that new contract going to look like?

No I didn't! I said I wouldn't sign him for more than 5 years.

 

Altuve
Yordan
Pena
Tucker
Diaz

are the position cornerstone players. You keep those guys, and fill in around them.

 

What do you not understand? I don't disagree with that. I also believe in our scouting system and believe we can replace the old guys with the younger guys in 5 years.

 

Everything or Something or Nothing?

Pay Tucker.

 

Unfortunately, I think another club will pay him more.

 

Oh I know.

But if Crane is all about "no windows"....you pay Tucker the going rate, and if he wants to be in Houston he'll be in Houston

 

I don't understand why you keep saying this. I don't have a problem with them signing Tucker to a contract. Is your argument that you want him signed until he's over 35 or something? If so, well we just think differently. I'm fine with signing him to the age of 33. Like I said, I believe 5 years is plenty of time for our scouts to find more young great players to let the cycle continue. They've done a fantastic job with that over the past few years.

 

Oh it's all good, I've been kind of halfass screwing with you [I really don't care, btw, I'm thinking about cooking fajitas at the moment]

He can play LF when he's 37

 

Astros have a front row seat to such an example

 

Berkman?

 

*cough...cough*

 

Sign the man...

 

Typical WAR reduction due to aging is about 1/2 WAR per year at age 30.

Kyle is on pace for 11.3 bWAR but let's just say he regresses to his 2022-2023 levels the rest of the year. That equals 7.2

$8M per WAR is considered equal value

2024 (28) = 7.2 value $57.6M
2025 (29) = 7.2 value $57.6M
2026 (30) = 6.7 value $53.6M
2027 (31) = 6.2 value $49.6M
2028 (32) = 5.7 value $45.6M
2029 (33) = 5.2 value $41.6M
2030 (34) = 4.7 value $37.6M
2031 (35) = 4.2 value $33.6M
2032 (36) = 3.7 value $29.6M
2033 (37) = 3.2 value $25.6M
2034 (38) = 2.7 value $21.6M
2035 (39) = 2.2 value $17.6M
2036 (40) = 1.7 value $13.6M
2037 (41) = 1.2 value $9.6M
2038 (42) = 0.7 value $5.6M

A 10 year deal 2025-2034, Tucker projects to be worth about $396M

 

Reality is that not being willing to sign him to a contract beyond age 35 is the same as saying goodbye.

There is no world where Tucker signs for under 7 years and probably even longer.

That's the market, that's what he has earned and that is reality.

Anyone who is not willing to go 7+ has basically decided Tucker is not needed and not worth pursuing.

It's like walking into a Cadillac dealer and saying you want a new Cadillac but not willing to pay over $15K. Sure you wanted one, buy your idea of value means you REALLY want a Chevy Malibu.

 

In my opinion he’s leaving.
Tucker has a ring and will want the biggest bag possible no matter where it is.
Someone will overpay for sure and crane won’t match it.
I’ve already started prepping my daughter for his departure.
He’s her favorite player

 

Anyone who thinks there's the slightest chance that Tucker will be here after next season needs a reality check. He's too close to FA not to test the waters and right now he's looking at a minimum of 300 million (probably around 35 mil per). If he keeps this up the price continues to go up. The time for Crane to try and resign him is gone but then you have that idiot Dana Brown saying he expects Tucker to be an Astro for a long time. Yeah right Dana!!

 

Tuck is so hard to read, does he love Houston enough to want to stay here and retire here or does he just want to make the most $$$ possible? I don't think we will get any type of hometown discount, and he deserves whatever he gets, but in this world of such high dollar contracts wouldn't you want to sign someplace where you have had success and you've won it all and a chance to do it again? I get tired of people who leave their club only to sign with a bottom dweller or a middle of the road team like the Twins or Blue Jays, who get close but never get over the hump. I think Tuck is the one player Crane will have to bid on for a long-term contract..................I would never forgive him if he made no offer or a ridiculous low-ball offer. I think the starting point is $300/10 and of course some team will top that by a bunch, if Crane offered him $300/7 I would be happy and if he walks at least we tried........

 

I agree with everything you said until $300/7

That's $42.9M per year.

I'm sure Tuck would like to actually take that even if it is under 9 or 10 years.

Of course higher AAV is how Crane has to get him to stay on a shorter deal but that's a huge overpay.

I think $240M/6 or $266M/7 should get it done if Crane is hell bent on keeping it under 8 years.

Lets say Kyle want $300M over 10 years.

$240M/6 leaves him only needing $60M/4 at age 35
$266M/7 leaves him only needing $34M/3 at age 36

Both of those could be reasonable if he is coming off of a 3+ WAR season as he projects to.