I look at the 2022 draft. The top 10 picks or so this year remind me of the 8 to 18 range in 2022. Sure Jalen Williams and Tari Eason were very good picks in that range. I'd expect something similar from the Top 10 picks this year. The difference being 2022 also had Paolo, Chet, Jabari, Ivey, and Murray. Ivey and Jabari haven't broken out yet (though I think Jabari is definitely looking like a long time starter in the NBA). I'd guess about a third to half of the value of the 2022 draft happened in the 1st seven picks.
yes. however, remember, people were quite lukewarm on the 2022 draft, too, and it turned out to be a very good draft. The "supe-duper" ‘amazing", "2003-like" 2021 draft OTOH turned out to be a total dud. These estimations often turn out to be wrong in retrospect. I’m keeping an open mind, I see some quality kids who may develop very nicely.
So far I've mostly watched Sheppard, Risacher, Castle, Topic, and Buzelis. I know he was just injured and if it's a long term issue then obviously you wouldn't take him 3rd, but man I am feeling the Topic love. The Dragic comparison works and I'm talking Dragic when he came to the Rockets and was already a veteran. The three pointer I think is very workable with NBA training. And while people say the Rockets biggest need is shooting, unless you believe Amen is 100% going to be a future PG, then the Rockets also need a floor general once FVV is gone.
I think 3pt attempt rate tends to be a better predictor of NBA 3pt percentage, and I think all of those names were quite a bit higher than Castle (and arguably Castle might have had the most open opportunities?). Castle might be able to do it, but I think it is reasonable to be skeptical that he'll ever be a decent 3pt shooter (especially on good volume...if you only take 1-2 3pt shots a game, teams probably still won't bother to guard you). I'd like to be higher on Castle overall. I guess there isn't a lot else out there, but I'm not as high on him as others. I'd feel better if I believed in the PG potential more, but not sure I'm seeing it. Giddey, Anthony Black, and maybe even Melton (not a bad comp) seemed like similar or better prospects at the time. Fine players of course, but not sure that would get a lot of playing time on this team. Speaking of Black, he also had a decent year of 3pt % (with similar shooting concerns), though volume could be better. I recently grabbed a recent-ish game highlights video for him: Based on that first shot, probably still needs some work.
Spoiler: Updated top 100 https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/38788364/2024-nba-draft-rankings-espn-top-25-prospects 1. Zaccharie Risacher | SF | Bourg (France) | 6-foot-10 | Age: 19.1 | Previously ranked: 1 Risacher's Bourg team advanced to the French playoff semifinals, where they'll face No. 1 seed Monaco, a top-level Euroleague team that should provide a staunch challenge. Risacher had a career-best 28-point outing in Game 2 of the quarterfinals, putting his talent as a dynamic 6-10 shot-maker and versatile defender with an elite feel for the game on full display. Risacher is in a group of prospects firmly in the mix for the Atlanta Hawks at No. 1, sources say, and likely won't have to wait long to hear his name called as he's in consideration for every team picking in the top 5. Risacher is slated to attend the NBA Global Camp in Treviso, Italy starting June 4 where he'll go through combine-style testing, drills, interviews and medical examinations; though that might not materialize if Bourg advances to the finals. Risacher is expected to be selective with his pre-draft visits among NBA suitors once he finally does make his way to the States. -- Givony 2. Alex Sarr | PF/C | Perth (Australia) | 7-1 | Age: 19.0 | Previously ranked: 2 Sarr was ESPN's top-ranked prospect to appear at the combine, and is on the shortlist of options for the Hawks at No. 1 overall. He opted not to do a pro day in Los Angeles, typical for a top-pick candidate, but it remains to be seen at this time which teams he will work out for going into draft night. His upside is arguably the highest of any of the draft's prospects because of his considerable physical profile (measuring just under 7-foot barefoot at the combine with a 7-4.25 wingspan and 9-foot-2 standing reach). He has unusual mobility for his size. In addition to considerable defensive potential, Sarr has the makings of a versatile offensive skill set, capable of running the floor and finishing plays, occasionally putting the ball on the floor, and with some shooting touch out to the arc. He still has development ahead of him in order to harness his abilities -- leaving some room for potential downside if he doesn't progress as expected for a high pick -- but the blueprint for an impactful starting-caliber player is there. -- Woo 3. Donovan Clingan | C | UConn | 7-2 | Age: 20.2 | Previously ranked: 3 Clingan has momentum going into June, as he made a strong impression in the drills portion of the combine, private interviews and his pro day, where he dropped intriguing glimpses of perimeter shooting that many scouts feel will be part of his game in the not-too-distant future. His measurements -- 7-3 in shoes, 282 pounds with a 7-7 wingspan and outrageous 9-7 standing reach are elite (as we already knew). The draft lottery did not do him too many favors, though, slating teams with entrenched starters at the center position at Nos. 3, 4 and 5, which might drop him a little further than his big-board ranking indicates. It would not be surprising to see teams such as the Portland Trail Blazers or the Memphis Grizzlies try to move up on draft night to snag their starting center of the future. There is some chatter, however, that Clingan has fans among the Hawks' constituency at No. 1, meaning there's a lot left to be played out between now and June 26. -- Givony 4. Reed Sheppard | PG/SG | Kentucky | 6-3 | Age: 19.9 | Previously ranked: 7 Sheppard measured a little bigger than expected at 6-3 in shoes while testing a 42-inch vertical leap in Chicago. He also looked like the clear-cut best shooter in the draft every time he had a ball in his hands -- both at the combine and his pro day in Los Angeles this week. Several teams have said that Sheppard's statistical profile -- with his incredible scoring efficiency (56% FG%, 52% 3P%, 83% FT%) combined with his excellent steal, block and passing metrics -- have him ranked as the No. 1 prospect in their draft models, something that surely has caught the attention of analytically inclined front offices, such as the Houston Rockets. With the premium that NBA teams are increasingly placing on perimeter shooting, it's hard to see Sheppard dropping below the top 5, with his fit in San Antonio alongside Victor Wembanyama looking especially strong at the Spurs' No. 4 pick. -- Givony 5. Matas Buzelis | SF | G League Ignite | 6-10 | Age: 19.6 | Previously ranked: 6 Buzelis didn't participate in an agency pro day in Chicago, but based on what we saw from him in private workout settings, he should have opportunities to help his standing in the coming weeks. He offers some of the prototypical qualities teams are looking for at forward, with solid positional size, vertical bounce, developing offensive versatility and better defensive acumen than scouts were expecting entering this season. His production at the G League level portends room for growth; he settled in as the season went on, flashed shot-making ability and contributed in a range of areas. It's going to take Buzelis some time, and he'll need to continue packing strength onto his frame to handle both forward positions long-term, but there's a baseline here for a very useful NBA player, and upside for more than that if a team can be patient with him. -- Woo 6. Stephon Castle | PG/SG | UConn | 6-7 | Age: 19.5 | Previously ranked: 9 Castle measured out better than expected in Chicago at a hair under 6-7 in shoes, and shot surprisingly well in drills, hitting 18-for-25 3-pointers in the star shooting drill, tied for third best at the combine. NBA teams were hoping to see him replicate that performance at his pro day, but he elected to sit it out. After playing mostly as a complementary wing option for national champions UConn, Castle has told teams in private interviews he views himself as a point guard in the NBA. He also appears to be avoiding private workouts with teams that already have starting point guards in place, a strategy that might not be as effective as in the past since every team in the top-15 has his medicals because of rule changes implemented this year. -- Givony 7. Rob Dillingham | PG | Kentucky 8. Dalton Knecht | SG/SF | Tennessee 9. Nikola Topic | PG | Red Star (Adriatic League) | 6-7 | Age: 18.7 | Previously ranked: 5 Topic's season ended with a knee injury suffered in the Adriatic League Finals, his second in this calendar year, a development that will be studied closely by teams once NBA doctors are able to conduct a thorough physical examination. Several teams have pointed out that European doctors often have different philosophies from their American counterparts regarding ligament injury treatment as well as their likelihood for recommending surgery. So it's all but a certainty that his MRIs will be scrutinized closely and might have an impact on his draft stock if his availability for next season comes into question. Topic's playmaking prowess -- as a 6-7 pick-and-roll maestro with possibly the fastest processing speed of any prospect in this draft -- should help overcome those question marks, as he was gaining momentum for consideration as one of the draft's top prospects before his season was derailed. -- Givony 10. Tidjane Salaun | PF | Cholet
Spoiler 11. Ron Holland | SF | G League Ignite | 6-8 | Age: 18.8 | Previously ranked: 13 Holland measured bigger than expected at the combine -- nearly 6-8 in shoes with a 6-11 wingspan and 38-inch vertical leap, comparable to NBA players such as Andrew Wiggins, Jayson Tatum and Herbert Jones. Teams were hoping to see Holland show a little more progress with his perimeter shooting than what they saw at the combine or his pro day, making him somewhat of a situational fit for certain lottery teams that are grappling with surrounding their existing players with ample spacing. The fact Holland is young -- he turns 19 on July 7 -- productive and boasts dynamic two-way versatility bolsters his cause, giving him much to gain over the next month as the heart of pre-draft workouts start. -- Givony 12. Cody Williams | SG/SF | Colorado 13. Devin Carter | PG/SG | Providence | 6-4 | Age: 22.1 | Previously ranked: 17 Carter has significant momentum as he's in the midst of an outstanding month that has him knocking on the door of the draft lottery. He measured well and tested as arguably the best athlete in this draft at the combine, posting historic figures that included a 42-inch vertical leap and shuttle and sprint times that put him in elite company. Carter also had one of the best pro day showings we saw in either Chicago or Los Angeles, putting his Olympic-level athletic ability on full display and knocking down 30-foot pull-up jumpers with ease, as he did all season at Providence. Teams looking for immediate backcourt help, starting with the San Antonio Spurs at No. 8 and the Memphis Grizzlies at No. 9 have significant interest in Carter, as his draft stock may continue to climb in the next month as he gets into private workouts. -- Givony 14. Ja'Kobe Walter | SG/SF | Baylor 15. Jared McCain | PG/SG | Duke 16. Zach Edey | C | Purdue | 7-5 | Age: 22.0 | Previously ranked: 14 Edey replicated his absurd measurements from last year's combine -- standing 7-5 in shoes with a 7-11 wingspan and 9-7 standing reach. He also showed off the progress he has made in several facets in drills, athletic testing and his pro day, where NBA teams were pleasantly surprised to see him take part in significant competitive action. Edey has trimmed down seven pounds from last year and tested out better in every athletic testing drill, showing the gains he has made with his mobility and explosiveness. He also shot the ball well from beyond the arc, an area Edey insists will be part of his offensive arsenal in the future. Several NBA teams mentioned being impressed with his serious-minded approach in interviews, where he discussed the joy he takes in punishing opponents with his physicality, a trait that was readily apparent on film. Edey has fans in the top 10, but also plenty of detractors, creating a somewhat wide range that extends into the 20s, depending on how the draft shakes out. -- Givony 17. Tristan Da Silva | SF/PF | Colorado 18. Johnny Furphy | SG/SF | Kansas 19. Kyshawn George | SG/SF | Miami 20. Kyle Filipowski | PF/C | Duke 21. Isaiah Collier | PG | USC 22. Carlton Carrington | PG | Pittsburgh 23. Yves Missi | C | Baylor 24. Bobi Klintman | SF/PF | Cairns 25. Kel'el Ware | C | Indiana 26. Baylor Scheierman, SG,/SF, Creighton 27. Tyler Smith, SF/PF, G League Ignite 28. Justin Edwards, SG,/SF, Kentucky 29. Tyler Kolek, PG, Marquette 30. Kevin McCullar Jr., SF Kansas 31. Terrence Shannon Jr., SG,/SF, Illinois 32. Ryan Dunn, SF/PF, Virginia 33. Jaylon Tyson, SG,/SF, California 34. Cameron Christie, SG, Minnesota 35. AJ Johnson, SG, Illawarra 36. Alex Karaban, PF Connecticut 37. Juan Nunez, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm 38. Pacome Dadiet, SG,/SF, Ratiopharm Ulm 39. Nikola Djurisic, SG,/SF, Mega MIS 40. Adem Bona, C, UCLA 41. Ulrich Chomche, PF/C, NBA Academy Africa 42. Jonathan Mogbo, PF/C, San Francisco 43. Harrison Ingram, SF/PF, North Carolina 44. Ajay Mitchell, PG, UC Santa Barbara 45. Pelle Larsson, SG, Arizona 46. Payton Sandfort, SF Iowa 47. Dillon Jones, SF/PF, Weber State 48. Izan Almansa,PF/C, G League Ignite 49. Melvin Ajinca, SG,/SF, Saint Quentin 50. Keshad Johnson, PF Arizona 51. KJ Simpson, PG, Colorado 52. DaRon Holmes II, PF/C, Dayton 53. Jamal Shead, PG, Houston 54. Bronny James, PG,/SG, USC 55. Hunter Sallis, SG, Wake Forest 56. Jalen Bridges, SF Baylor 57. Oso Ighodaro, PF/C, Marquette 58. Ariel Hukporti, C Ludwigsburg 59. Isaac Jones, PF/C, Washington St 60. Jaylen Wells, SG,/SF, Washington St 61. Enrique Freeman, PF/C, Akron 62. Cam Spencer, SG, Connecticut 63. Antonio Reeves, SG,/SF, Kentucky 64. Trentyn Flowers, SG,/SF, Adelaide 65. Mantas Rubstavicius, SF NZ Breakers 66. Jaxson Robinson, SG,/SF, BYU 67. Trevon Brazile, PF/C, Arkansas 68. Ugonna Onyenso, C Kentucky 69. PJ Hall, PF/C, Clemson 70. Trey Alexander, PG,/SG, Creighton 71. Quinten Post, C Boston College 72. Armel Traore, PF Blois 73. Zacharie Perrin, PF/C, Antibes 74. Jamir Watkins, SG,/SF, Florida St 75. Michael Ajayi, SF/PF, Pepperdine 76. Baba Miller, SF/PF, Florida St 77. Matthew Murrell, SG, Mississippi 78. Tristen Newton, PG,/SG, Connecticut 79. Coleman Hawkins, PF Illinois 80. Mark Sears, PG, Alabama 81. Isaiah Crawford, SF/PF, Louisiana Tech 82. Riley Minix, SF/PF, Morehead St 83. Tyon Grant-Foster, SG,/SF, Grand Canyon 84. JT Toppin, PF New Mexico 85. Anton Watson, PF Gonzaga 86. Jarin Stevenson, PF Alabama 87. Nae'Qwan Tomlin, PF/C, Memphis 88. Jesse Edwards, C West Virginia 89. Nique Clifford, SG, Colorado St 90. Reece Beekman, PG, Virginia 91. N'Faly Dante, C Oregon 92. Malique Lewis, SF/PF, Mexico City 93. Andrija Jelavic, PF/C, Mega MIS 94. Judah Mintz, PG,/SG, Syracuse 95. Yannick Kraag, SG,/SF, Joventut 96. Ilias Kamardine, PG,/SG, Vichy-Clermont 97. Walter Clayton, PG, Florida 98. Dylan Disu, PF Texas 99. Tre Mitchell, PF/C, Kentucky 100. Boogie Ellis, PG,/SG, USC
I'd say this draft is very much more poorly viewed than the 2022 draft. Also, the 2021 draft has Sengun, Barnes, Cade, Franz, Mobley, and Suggs. I think Cade's value is being masked by playing with guys that can't shoot. I'd not call it a dud as it looks like there are going to be a lot of No. 2 and No. 3 options from that draft. Chet and Jalen Williams are doing the heavy lifting for the 2022 draft so far in my opinion. I'm not sure how many others from 2022 make the leap to the Sengun, Franz, Barnes level next season. Prospects have a lot of noise. There are a ton of mistakes in player evaluation. I think there is a big difference in making mistakes and providing no value. I think the prospect evaluators are mostly right in the tiers of prospects even if they have bad and good years. Though, there are a ton more flops than there are guys that exceed expectations. I'd much more expect a great draft year to flop than this class being great (though it only takes 1-2 guys to change that). Though one never knows. Without knowing where the pick will be, I would not trade the 2025 Nets pick for the 1st pick this year.
Started watching more Topic. Probably near the top of my board, and depending on specifics, I could see him being the best pick. I just have a lot of question marks with him, and I'm not sure I can really get any information that would answer them before the draft. His recent injury really sucks for a variety reasons even if it is likely not a long-term concern (though I suppose his medicals in general might be a concern, and I don't have that info). But geez, I'm such a sucker for prospects that are elite processors, and he's definitely that.
I keep seeing that Clingan is some kind of defensive prodigy and then I remember that Edey had 37 and 10 in the championship game. 37 points--not 12, 19, 23, or even 28. 37 points Clingan gave up! I can't recall any draft where a guy who gave up 37 points in the championship game to another guy in the same draft class was then drafted on defensive merits ahead of the fellow who lit him up. I'm perplexed. What am I missing about Clingan? Is he all that or is he just bigger and stronger than everyone in college basketball except Edey?
It is unreal so many want to draft what would at best be a 3rd string center. The center posiiton is our biggest strength at the moment. Sheppard would be the best fit as well as best player available if he is there.
So weird and possibly overblown. But really could be shooting himself in the foot if he keeps pushing this so hard.
Yeah I'm *guessing* SAS is the target here (assuming teams skip over him if he rejects their workout offers). Though if SAS can get like Topic and one other good prospect, I wonder if Castle ends up with a Cam-like fall. Maybe not that bad though (especially since teams can remember the Cam situation). Or he could go like #2.
