People say this for every prospect with decent to good FT, but I’m very skeptical of the positive predictive value for this stat.
For an 18-year-old, 87% from the line over a period of years is pretty great evidence of a shooter, IMO. Don Clingan developing a shot however, nah...
There are always some outlier dudes who shoot well from the FT line but never from 3, and vice-versa. It's less common, but it does happen. My bigger concern with Topic is his defense. His positional size doesn't necessarily translate to him being a plus on that end.
While there's a long history of euro players coming over and either dominating or being very value add... there's also a long history of really good euro players coming over and never being able to make it in the nba. Topic's bball iq does seem uniquely high. But its very hard for to really gauge which group he'd belong to... he didn't dominate euroleague he actually wasnt good in euroleague, but in the lower league he was good - good, not dominant, not an MVP or anything. And he can't shoot. im not sold
I think the circumstances changed, from 1-5% of Euro players panning out to now probably 15-20% because most of them attend American Colleges as well. So not only the most talented guys like Luka or Dirk are coming over, role players are literally either preparing themselves overseas or in American schools.....
Whoever they draft, I just don't want anyone who aren't already able to shoot. I'm tired of hoping for a guy to learn to shoot someday. We already have three of those in our young core.
This is the only reason Sheppard is perhaps an "easier" selection than Topic or Castle. They don't have the shooting chops today; they might become average shooters in 3 years. Both bring a lot of other things to the table. Sheppard, however, immediately leads the team in FG percentage from the perimeter. At 180 lbs, I think he holds up in matchups with playoff guards like Mike Conley (Minn), Jaden Hardy (Dal), Jrue Holiday (Bos), or Payton Prichard (Bos). All these players are 6'4 or less and no one seems to be overly worried about if they get "hunted" in a switch. Topic and Castle can take all these guys to the rim or shoot over them in the post. Great, you get 2 points and maybe a trip to the line for that trouble. Sheppard makes 3s. And shooting is a premium item that every NBA team needs more of.
If Sheppard falls to #3 he would be the best player available as well as by far being the best at fitting our biggest need. It is a no-brainer to take him which scares me with Stone making the call.
This is setting up to be another draft where we think we are getting Sheppard, and end up with some other player because Atlanta figures out that Sheppard is the best prospect in the draft after not really considering him for the entire lead up to the draft.
If Sheppard is off the board at #3, Atlanta or Washington have decided to blow their teams up and concede the '25 season. They are playing for the lottery next year. I don't see it. Tanking for higher lottery picks is a terrible growth strategy, even if a good draft class is on the horizon. Just ask Detroit. The safest bet at this point would seem to be Alex Sarr at #1 or #2. He is a true seven-footer in shoes with big hands, a good motor, and functional (if not spectacular) 3-point range. When you watch the tape, he handles the ball pretty well--more like a 6'8 PF. And his defensive upside looks solid. While he might not be a future five-time all-star, he's a solid contributor in a playoff rotation. From day one, Sarr would be the best big on either Washington or Atlanta. Atlanta could add him to their mix and put together a good team. To me, Washington is a little more difficult to assess. If Sarr is gone, they might reach for Clingan at #2 or Riscacher. If they nab Sheppard, are they pairing him with Jordan Poole?
I think Topic goes #2. He has the highest ceiling out of anyone in the draft and Washington needs a ball handler. This makes our decision incredibly easy, in my opinion. Now if WSH goes with Zacherrie...... then it makes ours a lot harder because although Reed is a much better fit, I don't think he is in the same tier as Topic. You always go BPA over Fit... Just as the Sacremento Kings how that fit with Bagley and Fox is going. Those idiots could have had Fox, Haliburton, and Doncic on the same roster.
I really don’t see it with Topic. He didn’t really do well in the EuroLeague. He doesn’t have a shot yet. He doesn’t look very athletic. Doesn’t seem to have a great first step. He is 6’7, but not only does he finish under the rim, but WAY under the rim. He is really young, so I could be way off. Maybe he’s the next Luka. But right now, I just don’t see it.
Nobody in this draft is Luka. Nobody in this draft projects to be any kind of star, hence there being no consensus at the top, because most years these guys would all be late lottery picks at best.
The only issue I have with Topic is his level of competition which might make him seem better than he is. I'm looking at the NBA players that came out of his league and Jokic is there but he's like hitting the lottery. Others don't seem as good from the track record unless I missed something. I agree he didn't dominate the Euroleague, so he might be high risk/reward. Wish he had combine numbers to work with also to get a better idea of his info.
Neither Atlanta or Washington need a shooting guard unless trades are made. I’m fairly certain he makes it to 3 unless there are trades. I
