Sheppard is a guy you have to work backwards to understand, if I started with the tape then I wouldn’t be very impressed either. But the starting point is that he put up HISTORIC advanced stats, one of the few freshmen guards ever to register a >10bpm. As a 6’3 white kid who doesn’t look that fast, how in the world did he pull that off? That’s where we go to the tape to answer. Now we see he is a generational spot up shooter with perfect form. He has a pull up shot from 3 and mid range that can be scalable at the next level. Now I’m not someone who ever compared him to Curry, whose superpower was self created 3s, that’s not Sheppard’s game, he won’t dance but there’s room to scale his volume up. We also see that he just makes the correct, boring pass over and over. He is not the down hill driver that creates openings, he will need a screen to generate an advantage, but he consistently makes the right reads and keeps the offense moving. Lastly, he has strong hands and elite instincts on defense, where he is constantly digging at ball handlers and hawking passing lanes. Working backwards you kind of understand why his numbers were what they are, he contributes to winning in every way. For a kid that has zero physical advantages, he had to become the perfect basketball player through skill and smarts and tenacity.
I haven’t listened to the podcast yet but this might be correct in most drafts but just does not make sense in the current one which most view as weak and lacking few if any allstars at the top. Going for potential or archetype to swing for an allstar in a draft bereft of allstars is just setting ourselves up to fail(drafting a bust). The Rockets should draft the player most likely to become the best player that’s available, not some outside chance to hit a home run when none are available.
I’m sure he’s an NBA guy with an elite skill (shooting) I’m just not on board at 3. He didn’t start in college, had a mediocre game vs A&M in the SEC tournament loss, and completely no- showed (3 points )in the NCAA tournament loss where an opponent hit 10 threes. I think later on in the draft is more tenable but @ 3 that’s a little high. I think the Rockets should swing for the fences.
He - like Dillingham - didn't start because Calipari promised starting positions to the two "higher ranked" recruits (DJ Wagner, Justin Edwards)... Your other points are valid subjective comments
How would your guys evaluation change on him if he were to be a negative defender in the NBA? I went through 5 full game videos on YT, and man, those steals/blocks didn't translate into him being as good of a defender as I imagined. He constantly leaves his man wide open by wondering to help, he gets completely killed by screens and torched in PnR's, and is blown by just about every time his man decides to attack him. I'm now a bit spooked. I think I might be TeamTopic or KlanKnecht.
Doesn't Amen in the dunkers spot intensify the need for shooters "everywhere else"?? Especially with Sengun on the court too? Having Amen allows you to play that smaller guard covering for him defensively. Amen Sheppard Cam/Tari Jabari/Tari Sengun That lineup seems to have a bright future ....
Curry shot .412 over his 3 years at Davidson. His best year was .439. Sheppard shot .521. That's 8.2% better than Curry.
Team Topic all the way. 18 year old slicing the zone defense like butta against grown men. Not even Lamelo could do that. I will be remembered as being better than Medicine and Oremlk.
Yeah I'd like to drill down into more game footage to get a better feel on stuff like this. I did watch some game footage, and he was fine there IMO, but I'm sure there are lapses. The question is how many. I'll also note that generally speaking it can be difficult to evaluate prospects like Reed who aggressively go for steals/blocks/etc. Sometimes they'll get a bit lazy and just rely too heavily on "creation events," which will typically create more for a team against a weak(er) opponent than playing solid traditional defense. A steal/block could be a guaranteed 2 points. If you let a so-so guard blow by you, he'll probably just get blocked by your 7-2 center or just miss the open jumper/layup, so no biggie. Of course that changes significantly in the NBA. I think Amen had a reputation of doing the same to some degree, and I'm honestly pretty amazed at how he was able to play defense at the NBA level given some of his OTE tape (and play in other leagues).
Do you think that Cam can't be Jalen Green insurance? While I like Cam better as a classic 3, he's really a wing and could become our best outside shooter next year.
We're just talking about shooting. I'm ok with the lack of passing in exchange for defense. If you've seen FVV play I highly doubt Reed Sheppard will also be able to finish at the rim in the NBA. Jimmer failed because of lack of athleticism and height. I also thought Knecht would too stiff to excel in the NBA but his combine showed he can keep up in the NBA imo.
You are talking about a bunch of early 20 yrs olds way to early to judge what they can or cannot do at this point. These players can build skills like shooting but unless they get a growth spurt they can't grow their height and arms.
Curry had a ton of big games when it mattered most in college. Reed, not so much. I think Sheppard will be valuable in the NBA, but he’s not Steph Curry.
I totally agree, I've been watching full games and he has genuine vertical contest abilities but too many times he was blown by his man and Kentucky's bigs had to cover for him as shot blockers. This is college talent, let alone bigger, stronger, and much more explosive NBA athletes. He may be a good role player, develop star flashes, or not have enough defense to get minutes on the floor. It's really a potential variation with him and you don't want to underrate him as a potential hidden gem, but not overrate him either. Watch the full games guys, they're online. You can tell who took the time to really watch him and who just checked highlights and advanced stats.
Sheppard Full games Kentucky vs Missippi State (maybe Reed's best game in College) NCAA Tournament vs Oakland (One of Reed's worst games under pressure)
That’s really the only thing that keeps me up at night with Topic. His tempo control is sublime. His feel is on a completely different planet compared to anyone else in this draft.
OK, I did end up watching 2.25 games (UNC, Miss. State, and part of the Oakland game). And I think Reed's on ball defense was..fine? What were the games y'all watched? I don't doubt he had bad stretches (I've seen them in the scouting report videos, which aren't just highlights), but so far I'm not sure I've seen much to change my overall opinion. If I continue pulling up random games on Youtube, I might just be picking the games where he's *not* going up against speedy/crafty guards. I will say he doesn't seem to get attacked very often due to how these college teams play. College basketball in general sure can be...yuck...at times. Oh and thank you (Kentucky homer?) commentators for saying Reed Sheppard plays like Steve Nash. I will never be able to escape that comp or the Curry one ever again.
