To me, short term needs way outweigh long term needs right now. I'm fine giving up Chas if the Astros commit to Meyers in CF as I think Chas is a better CF than LF (i.e., Chas's bat is average-ish to light for LF and he doesn't get the opportunities on defense to provide the value I liked from him there). I don't want to punt this season. if it gets to that, the Astros should do that, but it won't be awesome.
I don’t think losing a total of McCormick, Pressly, Urquidy, and Abreu would have a material impact on Houston’s odds of winning the World Series this season, especially if they were able to recommit that shed payroll to other players. Trading Bregman would definitely be a blow to their odds this season, and should only be done if they are totally out of it. Here’s one: Astros get: 1B Pete Alonso RP Adam Ottavino Mets get: OF Chas McCormick P Jose Urquidy 1B Jose Abreu P Colton Gordon $4M
If you assume McCormick and Pressly have no material impact on odds of the World Series, they are near worthless in a trade should not be included as another team isn't going to give up long term value for no short term value.
Their value isn’t assessed in a vacuum. If a team is fielding replacement players in the OF or in high leverage relief, then either player may have a more material impact than they would for Houston. Also, McCormick is under control for 2 more seasons, and Pressly is likely to have a player option picked up for next season, so their trade value extends beyond whatever impact they might have for Houston this season. Theres also the difference in value based on how different teams project each player.
Disclaimer: I am asking just because I'm curious. What does anyone think that Tucker would fetch in a trade???
Somewhere just south of what the Nats got from the Padres in the Juan Soto trade. Accounting for Josh Bell being included, I think a reasonable expectation for a return on Tucker would be 2 MLB Top 50 prospects, 1 MLB Top 100 prospect (in the 60-100 range), and one lower level lotto with big upside. With that in mind, there’s only a handful of contending teams that could be reasonably involved, with both the need in the OF, the payroll flexibility, and the farm system to make a competitive offer. The Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies are fits upon a cursory look, with the Brewers, Pirates, and Giants being less certain fits. I truly hope the Astros are in the mix enough to warrant keeping Tucker, but if they’re not, trading him this deadline would be a franchise-altering deal.
There value isn't assessed in a vacuum. That said, having a more material impact for another team is a large goal post move over no material value to Houston's WS odds. Until the Astros are basically eliminated from the playoff odds, I am against making this team worse. The Astros's currently have 10 players providing positive value and 2 of them are catchers, one of them is a rookie. For a position player to have no material impact to Houston's WS odds, they would have to be a replacement level player, close to one, or worse as the Astros are paper thin. Being able to play Loperfido or Dubon in the OF lessens his value, but does not make his impact close to zero unless he's a replacement level player. For a reliever...Pressly obviously has material impact for Houston or he sucks. On Chas having more years left, that really isn't relevant regarding whether he has a material impact. That just matters on what the Astros would get back. Though, I can't imagine those extra years are worth much unless he is viewed as having a material impact for Houston this year. On different teams valuing players differently. There is some of that. I just hate trade speculation of poo poo platters for jewels. I am okay trading Chas, but only if he's viewed as a positive player. Also, I'm not trading him for long term value. I want a guy with less control, but is an even better player.
Just to be clear, I roughly agree with FanGraphs WS odds for Houston of 4.7%. That goes up to 9.2% if the Astros make the playoffs. In other words, one win could be a 9.4% change in World Series odds. To be repetitive, losing 1 win (or WAR) this season could potentially cost the Astros 9.4% in World Series odds. Maybe the Astros completely bust or just stomp the AL West going forward such that one win here or there don't matter. Though, odds are great that one or two wins will matter more this year than 5 wins in 2029 regarding Astros World Series odds.
My interest in trading Pressly is totally based on his option. If he hits 50 appearances his option for next season at 14 million vests. I don't want him next year for that much money. Most likely the Astros will be hanging around in the division and/or wild card race. So they will probably end up keeping him and paying him 14 million next year.
Whether $14M for Pressly is good or bad for the Astros depends on the overall payroll. With Tucker and Framber in last year of arbitration, much depends on them. A longer lower AAV extension or a trade could considerably impact the overall payroll. If the payroll is under the CBT then $14M for Pressly basically means nothing. If payroll is above CBT then it could mean quite a bit.
Christian Walker and Jordan Montgomery for Framber Valdez, Jose Abreu, Ryan Pressly, Chas McCormick, and Cesar Salazar Rip off the bandaid trade. The Diamondbacks are having a step-down after initial success kind of (Astros 2016-esque) season so should reload for next year. Walker is a rental and Montgomery has a very expensive player option but is very likely to only pick it up if he's hurt. Both players should help the 2024 Astros. Framber still has quite a bit of value and another year. He has become a distraction here, but a reunion w/ Strom probably appeals to both. He adds value allowing the Astros to jettison salary. We all know about Abreu. Adding Walker leaves him no place on this roster. The extra 2025+ talent going back to Arizona allows them to take him. Pressly should still be a good pitcher with value. Just for some reason, taking him out of the closer role broke him. A reunion with Strom and possible move back to closer role could be a huge boon for Arizona. The Arizona OF is very LH heavy and Gurriel is having a down year. Alex Thomas has simply never hit and is injured. Chas slides in to LF improving the OF defense and offense, while allowing Arizona to have a better DH option than Joc vs LHP (Gurriel). Chas has 2 more seasons of control. The Diamondbacks need a longterm answer at backup catcher. Strom knows Salazar very well and his value will never be higher IMO. Then Loperfido or Leon replace Chas on the roster and Dubin replaces Pressly. I'm not sure about the projected values, and not sure how to find them to see if it's really a fair deal.
Chas career OPS is .770 Among everyday LF's this year, only Cowser Ward Schneider O'Neill Profar Have an OPS higher than .770 I think Chas needs to be given at least semi-regular playing time to see if he can get going If they are not going to do that though, I agree let's see what we can get for him
I am not arguing at all but can you provide some reasoning. My thoughts: Walker makes $10.4M and Fangraphs projects him for 2.0-2.7 WAR. At 2.7 and 2/3 of a season he provides $7.5M excess value. Montgomery makes $25M and the projections are 1.3-1.7 WAR. That's negative $7.6M in value for 2/3 of a season. Plus the player option also reduces the value of the deal. Financially this looks like a bit below $0. Framber: $12.1M and 1.6-2.2 WAR projections. 1.6M gives him about $0.5M excess value this year. 3.2 projection next year vs a $20M salary gives him about $5.6M excess value. Say $6M total. Abreu makes $19.5. That's $32.5 remaining. Negative 0.2 (×.67) and 1.2 WAR projections = $8.5M value. Total negative $24M. I don't agree w/ relief pitching WAR as a way to determine financial value, but it's all I have for Pressly. Unless he gets injured, his option is vested so let's say it's guaranteed. $14M (×.67) and $14M. Projections are 0.3-0.7 WAR but he is already at 0.4 so let's use 0.7 along with his 0.6 projection for 2025. $23.4M salary and $8.6M value = negative $14.8M Chas: 1.0-2.0 projections. 1.0 (×.67) w/ $2.85M salary is +$3.5M excess value. 2.9 and 2.5 projections for 2025 and 2026 = $40.8M in value. Arbitration salaries of $6M and $12M bring that down to $22.8 + $3.5 for 2024 = $26.3M total excess value. Salazar projects to 2.0 WAR over his 3 pre-arb seasons which is about $14M in excess value 2025-2027. Does not include 3 arb seasons. So: Walker + Montgomery = negative $0.1M Framber, Abreu, Pressly, Chas, Salazar = +$7.5M However I realize this is strictly on paper and does not consider any other issue. What are your thoughts?
Arizona is not trading one of their premier offensive performers just to switch out one good SP for another. Astros are not trading Framber and Chas for 2 rentals and a dump of Abreu’s salary. ToR SP always has a premium at the deadline so the $/war calcs you have are WAY off. If that trade went down, clubhouses and fan bases on both sides would revolt and both front offices would get absolutely skewered in the media. All without either team getting significantly better in the short or long term. Just because a trade might carry reasonable fair $/war value doesn’t mean it makes any sense. If Houston trades Framber, it will be because they are fully out of contention this season and are using him (and very likely Tucker) to hasten their reload, which means they will be trading them for elite prospects, not rentals and salary dumps. As a prospect hound, the idea of selling at this deadline is an exciting consolation for how poorly the Astros are currently playing. If they trade Tucker/Framber, and tank the rest of this season (giving them a top 5 pick next year), they could reasonably have 10 of the top 100 prospects in the league next July (3 for Tucker, 3 for Framber, 2 in next year’s draft, 2 from the current group plus next month’s draft). Free agency and payroll flexibility could replace Tucker/Framber for 2025 such that there would still be a reasonable expectation for making the playoffs.
Abreu with all salary paid with Melton, Baez, Arrighetti, Matthews, Dezenzo, Loperfido, COle, Blubaugh, Fleury, and Gordon to the Angels for Rendon is how much I want him off the team.
I just saw that I posted a hypothetical involving the Astros acquiring RHP Luis Rodriguez from the White Sox back in April; they ended up trading Julks for him. lol https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-rodriguez/sa3021816/stats?position=P
