lol this is the dude who said kpj is better than fvv before the season and then after we started winning said it was a conspiracy in the nba to allow the rockets to win more. Where is the setting for letting none of board see your posts because that’s where they belong, behind the barn and shot. I may laugh at that mathloom guy writing 8 essays on Green and now hating on Sheppard but at least he genuinely tries. You, you are psychotic.
It means a Risacher/Amen backcourt is better. Why would a 6'1.75 shooter be better than a 6'9 shooter?
We aren't spending the third pick for an upgrade to freaking Holiday who is like the 3rd PG at best. With Tari back I doubt Holiday gets more than spot minutes next year.
With only one year of college ball/stats to evaluate, I went back and looked at some of Reed's HS film... Highlights... Last game... From the eye test perspective, you'll see pretty much the same thing he did against better competition at KY in his HS tape. He's their primary PG and easily their best player. The shooting range and stroke are consistent as the sunrise. His crisp passing and tenacious defense are on display as well. As I've read all of the perspectives I can understand why some fans don't want to draft a player like Reed at #3. I mean he's kind of boring compared to the other shiny prospects that are alternatives for us at #3. He's undersized at 6' 1.75", below average reach, and has small hands. I get all that and that his usage rate wasn't high enough to gamble that his insane metrics will carry over to increased usage at an NBA level. That's certainly possible and something I'm sure scouts factor into their evaluations. I also appreciate the stat/metric nerds who point out his incredible percentages and high rates in almost every key area for guard evaluations. Those are certainly exciting and worth considering in a player's assessment. But let's get back to the eye test approach. If you watch the videos above and compare them to the UK highlights, you'll see virtually the same player, making the same plays, but at a higher level and against much better players. Now, can that translate to the NBA? I believe it can. Why do I believe it can? Because Reed Sheppard is an old school basketball player that plays the game the right way (IMHO). Not a lot of flash, very little bang, but a whole lot of smart, winning basketball plays that contribute to winning games and seasons. I think this is why so many of us have fallen for the young man and blending him with our current team just makes too much sense. Whatever the team does I'll obviously support the pick or trade, but he feels like the extra spark we need to really ignite and propel our youth movement to another level. Maybe that's over estimating his value and impact, but it's also part of what makes being a fan so much damn fun!
Risacher has no shot creation or play making ability, he would not be part of any backcourt and certainly does not compliment Amen who himself have yet to prove capable of handling pg duties full time.
Reed would be the long term replacement for Fvv, you know, the 30 year old who isn’t on the same timeline as the rest of the core, but has no current replacement since no one else can handle pg duties.
Sheppard is going to go from being a part time starter in college to let's say starter in the NBA (just to make a fair comparison with Bari). You don't think that is likely to produce a statistically significant drop vs the average drop? Another 1/3rd of the formula being left out here is volume. If he increases his volume or the proportion of his shots that are 3's, you have to account for a further drop. Teams are going to let him do anything but shoot to start his career, I think that's a fair expectation. The final third of the formula is that he's going to be a rookie. You HAVE TO give a rookie permission to have some nerves/adjustment. We should expect a small further drop here. It should be ok if Sheppard's second half is more reflective of his skills but the whole season is going to count towards his averages. Now let's talk about Bari. Here you froze his stats at 36% I think you forgot that the hypothesis is Bari will improve. There's no way we can prove this but in general a guy who is a hard worker and has shown a pattern of improvement and sees himself as a shooter will probably improve. Keeping all this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised (or mad at Reed) if we saw: 38% on 4 attempts for Reed 38% on 6 attempts for Bari Would this be shocking to anyone? Not me at least. Bari SHOULD outshoot him for this one season. Also want to be very clear: this is not definitive of Sheppard's career. We're comparing a 3rd year player to a rookie. Sheppard imo is more likely to be the better shooter over a career and tbh he better be if he wants to stick in the NBA because 6'10+ Bari has a 7-1 wingspan with a defensive motor inside and outside the paint. You guys (not you specifically) are making me feel like I don't like Sheppard's game. That's not true at all. If he were drafted by the Magic I believe he'd win ROY pretty easily - their guards have no star potential and he would outplay all but Suggs immediately. I just think we are too good at guard to bring him on board. Everyone is high on Amen/Whitmore. You know I'm high on Green. If you were me, can you see how bringing a rookie guard on board is not really appealing? Especially when even some of his own ardent fans acknowledge he wouldn't be a top pick in an average draft? Green, Amen and Whitmore are top 5 talents in strong drafts. Whitmore had question marks but there have been no injury or coachability issues under a masterful player development staff. If we actually drafted Sheppard I'll root for him like any other Rocket. Once they put on the uniform I have 0 grudges unless they severely disrespect the culture.
Don't overthink it. Draft Reed Sheppard. Highest floor. Perfect fit for our team's needs. As high a ceiling as anyone else in this draft. If you really think you need one, find some 7'2 jump monster in the second round or via trade or FA. Heck, you can pick up a Bol Bol type for the vet min.
No dude i don't understand why you're putting words in my mouth, this is very unlike you. Nash is just an example of how stats don't necessarily translate. It's not a hindsight analysis. It's an example of how advanced college stats are not going to just tell you how Sheppard will perform minus some standard discount you've applied. Anyways, we're far on this. Thanks for the discussion.
Thanks. I felt the same watching his HS tapes. He played the same way in HS as in college. I expect him to pretty much play the same way in the NBA. He'll need to adjust to bigger and faster players and more complex schemes at both ends. But he has all the fundamentals down that is needed on every level.
I like Reed. He's definitely on the short list of guys I want in the draft. That said, I'm hopeful he would be great, but I'd be fine with him just being the 1st guard off the bench if that is what he ends up long term. I think penciling him in as FVV's replacement is a bit much. Granted, I doubt there will be anyone available to draft that will be a favorite to become a starter for the Rockets. Sarr...he's behind Sengun and can't shoot well enough to play with Sengun. Topic...He might actually have the best odds at being a starter for the Rockets, but he can't shoot either. I'm guessing either Green is March Green going forward or the Rockets add a guard that is a near-start or better at some point via trade. Risacher....he's behind Jabari, Tari, Amen, Cam Castle....He's behind Amen and Green and potential acquisition. Clingan...He's behind Sengun Holland, Matas....see Risacher.
Jabari averaged 28.8 min a game in college and made 5.5 3PT attempts at .420. That dropped to 30.7 his first year in the NBA and back up to 36.3% his second year. It didn't take long. Sheppard played 28.9 4 min per game attempting 4.4 3PT shot attempts at .521. If he drops 10% his first year like Jabari he would still be shooting way better than anyone on our team. Then, if he goes back up like Jabari his second year he would be one of the best 3 PT shooters in the NBA. If you have these two guys and VanVleet taking the bulk of the 3's you are much better off than having Jalen take those shots. FVV and Sheppard are perfectly capable of passing and feeding the open 3 PT shooter, Amen, or Sengun. Sheppard is also going to cause the opponents more turnovers with his ability to steal the ball. 2.5 steals a game is no joke. I also believe he will have a better AST/TO ratio than all our other young guys. For a team that desperately needs better 3 PT shooters I just can't see not drafting Sheppard.
