Curry went at #7 after Hasheem at #2. Nash went #15 IIRC, Paul went after Marvin Williams. This “ceiling-gating” is hilarious, nothing wrong with having those players as ceilings (aka best case scenario) and comparing where they were at the same stage of development. If there are similarities then there are similarities.
You are absolutely correct - It's more likely that Jabari improves than Sheppard shoots .521 from three as a rookie. But hold on, not so fast ..... even if Sheppard's percentage drops by .155 he's still shooting better than Jabari. If he falls only half of that (7.5%) he finishes the season #3 in the league for 3 point percentage @.446. He has to decline by .309 of his total shooting percentage to fall to that .36 figure. That's the equivalent of Steph Curry dropping from .408 to .282. Just to put some perspective around the numbers ....
I don't pay attention to you bub.....you have the flat out worst player evaluation skills imaginable. VanVleet 22/23 Toronto (spacing provided by OG Anunoby and Gary Trent) better spacing .................% of FGA by Distance..........................................FG% by Distance ....................2P...........0 - 3.........3 - 10........................2P.........0 - 3..........3 - 10.... .....................45.5%.....12.0%..........14.4%........................45.5%.....58.6%........37.5% Vv 23/24.....42.4%........9.3%..........12.3%........................45.4%.....50.5%........38.4% JG4 23/24...54.6%.......21.7%.........16.6%.......................49.8%......69.2%........34.4% JG4 22/23:..59.2%.......20.2%.........21.2%.......................47.1%......59.1%........40.6% VanVleet had more spacing in Toronto and his numbers came down with Houston.. poorer numbers than Jalen (exception 3-10 ft FG%.....but not in 22/23) basketball-reference.com VanVleet https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/vanvlfr01.html Jalen Green https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenja05.html ---------------------------- .......................minutes......drives........FGA.........FG%......Pt% Vv (23/24)......36.8.............10.6.........2.7...........41.4......29.4 JG4(23/24)....31.7...............9.5..........4.9...........46.3......67.0 NBA.com (Drives) Nobody worries about VanVleet getting all the way to the rack.....because he sucks at it!! So he passes out, which is a duh moment. He's not a threat near the basket. Of course he will have a better Ast%. But Jalen is getting better even if you don't know it. You make keeping VanVleet more important than it is. Reed would not be a plus. Defenders will just put an elbow in his hip and keep him grounded as he drives. But Tyus Jones could give us much the same (as VanVleet) at half the price. And nobody cares about your opinion.
Have to split hairs here - Tari & Jabari essentially shot the same percentage from 3 last year. Tari - .360 Jabari .363 Tari has a higher career percentage - Tari .347 Jabari .335
Jabari takes a much higher volume and probably takes a lot more contested threes and pull up threes in transition. I trust Bari's shot more than Tari.
You should really scroll to the bottom left of the page and select Clutchfans dark -- about half the board can't see your post.
I know English is not your first language so it's understandable that the nuance escapes you. Don't worry, it makes perfect sense. If you'd like me to say it in a way you might be able to understand, tough, just move on.
We get that it's rare and not necessarily the best thing to do (comparing to greats) as you'll be setting yourself up for disappointment more times than not. But it's also true that Reed's analytics are all-time great numbers that only comes around every so often in college ball. To shoot someone down so early before he even touches an NBA court is the same logic as saying the guy is automatically Curry before he steps on an NBA court. If anyone had compared Nikola Jokic to Aryvdas Sabonis when he was drafted, all the negative nancies on this board would be throwing massive fits. Now, if you compare Jokic to Sabonis.. it's a laugher, the other way around. Point is - no matter how much game tape or analytics that you go through, you never know until they step on the court. That's for every single prospect. I'd just rather take my chances on someone who thus far has shown up both on the stat sheet and in the eye test and has great character makeup on top of all that.
To be clear, I'm not trying to shoot him down. I'm cool with us picking him, I just want to keep the expectations reasonable. I wouldn't complain about saying his ceiling is something like a better-shooting FVV or perhaps even Kyle Lowry. Those guys are (or were in Kyle's case) great players. If he can be even better than that, great, I'm just saying I don't think that's something you can ever reliably predict.
There are two outcomes. 1. We draft him. He will be a complete bust. 2. We don't draft him. He will be a superstar hall of famer. Choose wisely.
If a player ends up better than their ceiling comps, it means the analysis was wrong, nothing more. A ceiling is supposed to be the best possible outcome. I think the mistake you are making is that you are giving the "experts" far too much credit. The experts didn't think Curry would be Curry either.....the experts hyped up guys like Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green and both of them have been trash. When those same experts you are talking about looked at Curry as a prospect, they said some of the same things about him that are being said about Sheppard....because they are such similar players. Will Sheppard end up like Curry? Probably not, but it's definitely possible. It's certainly a better comparison and more likely outcome than those simpletons who were trying to compare Jalen Green to MJ or Kobe.
We draft him, he “forgets” how to shoot. Hey, get this floor spacing big (Ryan Anderson) … becomes reluctant to pull the trigger. Jabari Smith, 42% 3pt at Auburn, 33% through 2 years in Houston Garrison Mathews leaves Houston, becomes 44% shooter in Atlanta (35% in Houston) Didn’t T-Mac once mention depth perception? Just found it, he did! Not shooter friendly. “I really feel a lot of guys are not comfortable playing in this arena," McGrady said. "I hear guys saying things about how they're not comfortable playing in the arena, how it's not a good shooting arena for whatever reason.”
Mark Price was a damn good player. One of the few people who came close to the 50/40/90 shooting club and a multiple-time all star. If he played in today's environment, maximizing his 3pt shooting, he would have accomplished even more.
