Do you just really like to argue? I said I am not calling anyone out. I will not be responding to anything else on the subject.
With Green and FVV 57.6% TS% With Green without FVV 55.6% With FVV without Green 57.1% Without Green 55.3% Without FVV 54.5% It is almost like FVV is the guy that made the offense run for the season and Green's on/off numbers are just a byproduct of playing with FVV for most of the year. Considering how great Green was in March, I'm surprised these numbers were this slanted towards Green not being much of an impact on the offense without FVV.
I'm assuming you are using cleaning the glass... Who on the team has the third highest impact on team offensive possessions behind FVV and Landale(small sample size with more noise). Why is a guy with such low scoring efficiency for all intents and purposes of yy.not include Landale the second highest t impact on team points per possession? There are 3 other guys who mimic FVV playing time. Sengun follows FVV minutes more than Green as Green and FVV often are staggered after the first 8 minutes of the game.
I'm using NBA.com stats along with excel to factor the with X without Y stats. I don't really care who has the third highest offensive impact. EPM has Green as the third biggest offensive impact. Though, he's closer to Eason's offensive impact than he is to FVV's (i.e., he's not making a significant impact). I used TS% to see if there was a correlation for how well players scored between Green being on the court without FVV and Green being off the court (i think it is pretty obvious that FVV was the offense for most of the year). Other than March, FVV pretty much had to be on the court for the Rockets TS% being remotely close to NBA average. The big flaws in how I did it was I didn't take into account that Green's inefficiency likely masked some of his ability to generate better shots for teammates (i.e., if Green is making his shots like he did in March, he will make a big impact of team efficiency).
I'm using points per possession for a team because that shows impact on team offense rather than just more arbitrary on/off numbers. Ts% at the end of the day is a goal to increase points per possession. Ts% isn't the end state goal. Green having the third highest epm or third highest on/off impact on team ppp means a lot of guys are lower. A lot of guys who mimic FVV rotational minutes more than Green. Green is often used as the backup lead ball handler when FVV is resting. That means they stagger minutes more often because Green basically plays FVV back up role and when FVV is on the court with him he plays the off guard role. That means the other starters in Sengun, Jabari and Dylan mimic Fred's rotational minutes more. So why aren't their impacts higher when you claim the reason Green's offensive impact is near the top of theeamnis because you claim he mirrors FVV minutes? And why is a high volume low efficiency scorer on this team having for all intents and purposes if you remove Landale due to low sample size having the second highest positive impact on team offense? Why do you think that is? It isn't because of FVV because guys like Jabari and Brooks.mirror his minutes more than Green.
In the “short” term Reed has a chance to help right away. I just prefer to think “longer” term and be patient. Our team is not perfect but really good as is… so again, we take sarr or topic.
You're in the right. I recommend resigning yourself to the fact that there are gulfs in how people conceptualize data, statistical projections, and forward-looking uncertainty vs backward-looking outcomes. Those gulfs are not going to be bridged on an internet forum. For some people, it is impossible to simultaneously hold statements like these in their head: - "Players can succeed and be stars in the league at <6'4, but the likelihood is definitely lower than for >'6'4 players" - "Among all <6'4 prospects, Reed Sheppard statistically projects as one of the 5-10 most likely to succeed and be elite since Steph" - "Analytical projection models are not even close to perfect and don't explain a large amount of variance in career outcomes" - "Draft strategies strongly weighted towards those analytical models typically outperform heavier subjective scout-weighted strategies" - "Because of his size and archetype, Reed Sheppard also statistically projects as having a significant bust likelihood" - "Reed Sheppard will with >98% certainty not be as good as Steve Nash" - "Reed Sheppard is better at basketball and a better NBA prospect as a 19 year old than Steve Nash was" Those people find it impossible to consider all of them at once to inform decision-making. It's easier for them to choose one or two of them they find most compelling, and decide they render the rest irrelevant or false. In fact all these statements are simultaneously true.
I've certainly seen posts not wanting Reed, but I wouldn't say 'a lot' or correlate them to Jalen only fans. There may be a few who check both boxes, but there really aren't that many JOFs on the board.
Cam is already a better player than Jalen....why would he worry? Jalen is a draft bust that the Rockets already tried to dump at the deadline but no one wanted.
They have a boat load of prospects than can be divided into Rockets 1 and Rockets 2 and they could essentially field 2 teams in the NBA. The bench would suck but a least you have 2 starting lineups of starters. Drafting Sheppard or Amen ahead of Jalen and Jabari would have made this a much more organic journey.
Some of the most absolutely hilariously delusional Jalen Green fans are the most against drafting Sheppard....now sure, some of it is probably just that they know next to nothing about basketball and have some of the worst talent evaluation skills imaginable....but some of it is that they are worried about your guy.
Buddy, Amen is barely a year younger than Green and is asked to play a five/four. He has a long way before we even contemplate him being a lead ball handler. Reed Shepherd hasn't played a game in the NBA. Hold your horses.
Hey, some people are just opinionated. I made a not-favorable comment at a Rockets game about Jalen Green (he was fumbling his dribble while "Jeremy Lin"*-ing it into tall defenders). The two brothers seated in front of me did that slight head-turn people do at a cinema when someone is talking during the movie. I thought, Best save it for Clutchfans. * - dribble-turnover
I just don't get it. People make a claim and then get offended for examples for that claim. That's confrontational in my opinion.
Thanks for sharing, I watched both (skimming through the minutes without Sheppard/Knecht/Dillingham) I came away a little less sure of Sheppard actually, a lot of his assists are standing still at the top and dishing to players coming off screens / inbound passes, instead of collapsing the defense. He also got blown by pretty routinely. Dillingham has explosiveness in his offense that is easy to be intrigued by. Knecht was super smooth, an efficient 3-level scorer with good size, a strong dribble and first step that drawls him a lot of fouls on the drive. Reminds me of Bojan Bogdanovic. All this being said, the college game, systems, and age have such heavy impacts. Knecht is 4 years older at 23, Sheppard is being put into a particular role offensively, and he's only 19. If you look at the freshman years for multi years players like Knecht, and Clingan they are so underwhelming compared to who they are now.
Cool thanks, now that's a fair take and analysis I can respect. If someone watches full games and takes in all the info holistically, they can get a clearer picture of what his abilities are or could be imo. (Not saying you but speaking generally) Rather than others just reading a mock draft, advanced stats and highlights or following the crowd they heard he was good, Actually thinking for yourself with an informed opinion holds more weight to me at least, even if the opinion is different. If he wasn't unlocked in his role, then perhaps he can reach his potential, we'll see what happens. I comp his ceiling to Mark Price who was a borderline HOF talent and would be much better in this era, or he may become a backup role player I don't know. If he gets drafted by us I'll definitely root for him, but if he is not what people think he is then I hope folks adjust their expectations and aren't shocked if someone else in the draft is better long term.
