I am wondering about the timetable for Lance vs the 2022 timetable? 2022: 5/22: threw 10 pitches on flat ground and 10 @ about 80 mph from front slope of mound. 7/22: started for Corpus throwing 40 pitches 7/27: started for Sugar Land throwing 52 pitches 8/2: started for Sugar Land throwing 76 pitches 8/7: started for Sugar Land throwing 86 pitches 8/13: started for Astros throwing 81 pitches. 2024: Last report (5/13) he is throwing mid 80s from the mound but not yet facing hitters. He is much further along, but let's say 5/13/2024 is equivalent in recovery to 5/22/2022. That makes sense if they are being more careful. Let's say they give him 3 months instead of 2 before starting rehab. His first rehab start is 8/12 is 90 days. Instead of 4 days between starts, let's say they do 5 which has become the new norm, but since he is no longer healing, just ramping up, 4 starts should still be good. Rehab starts 8/12, 8/18, 8/24, 8/30 Ready to start in Cincinnati Thursday 9/5. 9/11 vs Oakland 9/17 @ SD 9/23 vs Sea 9/29 @ Cle I think that would be very positive.
I think he’ll be back before that but it’s all guesswork and there’s a lot more downside than upside in terms of potential timeline changes.
We can hope. I was basically thinking unless there is a setback this is basically worst case. Fingers and eyes crossed.
If I were the Astros I would bring him back as a RP. Less buildup time needed and less impact to the team if he gets hurt again. He can be built up again next spring.
I'd rather keep the young guys starting and set up a tandem guy for them incase they get a contusion or get in trouble. 3-4 innings a piece and bring in garcia or mccullers. I don't want to mess with the mojo of a young gun starter unless there's a problem.
@Nook can provide more insight, but I think that was dismissed because the medical staff feels regular work and routine are the best ways to prevent future injury? I know that was put here sometime previously.
Seems like McCullers serving as a 2 inning opener in front of Brown or Arrighetti could be a great option.
If he is healthy, he needs to be pitching way more than 2 innings every 5-6 days. Lance has All-star caliber stuff. Health is really the only concern. If he's healthy and on the roster this team is better if he's starting every 5th-6th day and throwing 5+ innings per start. If he's throwing less than 5% of the total innings that's a waste.
This sounds like a guy trying to convince his wife that the best way to get out of debt is to buy a new sports car
Guys like John Smoltz and Gagne also said that being a reliever was far more taxing at times than being a starter. Not just from the lack of a routine, but you're supposed to be throwing max effort for those 1-2 innings, you're also warming up/sitting/posisbly warming up again depending on the game situation, and its harder to plan side-sessions/bullpen sessions in between appearances in case you need to tinker/work on certain pitches. Of course all relievers who possess a multitude of pitches and are able to harness command of all of them without necessarily max effort... should probably be starters. I know the organization has gone back/forth on whether Bryan Abreu could go back to starting... but his stuff still is playing up elite in the bullpen and we don't know what happens to his command/velo without max effort or multiple times through the order.
