Fair enough, but I'm not sure why it is worth discussing if he doesn't actually have a slow release. I mean, I guess you think he does, and you're entitled to your opinion. But I think you're the only person I've seen describe him in that way. I do agree that he'll need to be shooting well *and* playing at least passable defense to see NBA minutes (probably the latter more so than the former). I'm a big Reed guy, but I'm actually not opposed to him getting some G League time to work on PG reps if they seem a bit lacking (especially the handle when under pressure). I've said this multiple times, but I think folks get too obsessed about tying guys to certain positions instead of thinking more about the skillsets involved. Why can't Reed and Amen *both* start as playmaking guards? Do you know how dangerous it would be to involve Amen, Reed, and Sengun in some complex DHOs? Sengun can pick either ballhandler to hand it to, and both guys can penetrate and make skip passes to open shooters (e.g., Jabari) or make the pocket pass back to Sengun. Or while those 2 are causing the defense to scramble, Sengun can just take it himself (and also make the same kick out passes to shooters). People need to quit worrying about what the position is labeled and think about how you can make these skillsets work together and confuse a defense. If you can have a guy who can dribble, pass, and shoot (and hopefully play good defense), I'm sure you can find a way to make things work. Having said that, I don't know if Reed is the answer long term as a starting guard (just like I don't know if Amen, Jalen, or even Cam could be in those roles long term). Maybe he turns into a 6th or 7th man type role (still 20-30 MPG), which I think could still be very valuable (ala an EG), but sure it might not be a starting role (never mind all-star level). Given this draft, I think that's fine for #3, especially since I see potential for more than that (with or without Amen as starting PG). edit: Since it is coming up and to be clear, I think you can throw Jalen, Cam, etc into this discussion. As long as guys have high skill levels, they can work together. I wasn't trying to limit this to just Amen and Reed.
I've literally said in multiple threads that Sheppard's who I want to draft, are you on drugs? The only complaint on Green is his shooting? Are you being wilfully ignorant or is it a literacy problem? Mental.
The message board has a search function. Search for 6'6" or 6''4 in the search bar under GARM. There is a loud group of people who don't like Green who will try to dismiss any claims of him being 6'6".
I would say the odds of Atlanta passing on Sarr is actually higher than Washington's, who I think would take Sarr immediately if he fell there. But if we assume both Risacher and Sarr are off the board, for me personally it would be a coin toss between Sheppard and Topic. Depending on whether the Rockets brass feels like Topic's shot is more likely to develop or Sheppard's ability to generate volume 3s (really poor man Curry if you will) with his smaller stature.
Unguarded 3s at almost 60 ****ing percent. Alperen Sengun just fell to his knees somewhere in a Turkish supermarket.
I am not complaining about Green's size. He has grown longer and taller anyway - having said that...... I hear a lot of complaints about the size of Sheppard, it is probably what keeps him from going #1.
Green is at least 6'4" at this point - I think he is likely 6'5"... and while he doesn't have a freakish wingspan, it is likely around 6'8". Size is no longer an issue with Green - at this point it comes down to improving his shot and being more consistent - there are no real physical issues.
There is no way to know what will happen in the NBA - but Sheppard is the best shooting prospect in a long time. Off the top of my head, others in his class of shooters entering the NBA would be Doug McDermott (a four year college player), Steph Curry (a three year college player) and maybe Klay Thompson (three-year college player). None of those guys shot over 43% from 3 in college - and Reed shot 53%. Sheppard needs to increase his volume, but he is expected to be a top/elite shooter in the NBA.
Hot take - I think Reed Sheppard is Steve Kerr 2.0.... and Steve Kerr 2.0 is like exactly what this team needs coming off the bench to really help the offense take off. The only issue here is we are at #3, and not #9 or 10. If we were in the late lottery, and Sheppard is there, it's a great fit. At 3, you really do run the risk of a potential star going after Reed, and Stone looking like he went way too safe. Reed also has the potential to not even be Kerr 2.0 and be Jimmer 2.0. So at #3.... ugh... hard for me to take Reed Sheppard but I do think he fits like a glove off the bench for this team, and especially with Sengun to help space the floor, and move without the ball to get good shots.
If this was Corey Kispert on defense he'd still be going Top 15 in this draft with those numbers. Reed's defensive acumen is beyond Steph Curry. Obviously he will not be Steph offensively, but he will be a different sort of prospect altogether. I am having a really hard time coming up with an example for Reed because he's so unusual. Taller, better shooting FVV is the best I can come up with.
If you want to use his combine vertical leap measurement then you have to use his standing reach measurement which is shorter than FVV. Hence why people are skeptical about his combine vertical
Sheppard will get underrated because his elite skills really don't compare against any single player except Steph Curry... and most will shy away from that comparison because of Curry's greatness. BUT, it is a valid comparison. Curry vs Sheppard Comparison Ultra elite shooters Excellent defenders (Sheppard led the SEC in steals as a freshman) Great court vision/passing (high assists) Possess sky high basketball IQ The son of NBA players (granted Dell Curry was much better than Jeff Sheppard, but Sheppard did lead UK to a natty). As has been pointed out by Draft Express, physically they are virtually identical This is not just a pure shooter -- the court vision and defense are also excellent. And Sheppard's mental makeup is as good as it gets. Sheppard could be our guy.
I think you just take him because it's a great fit and he projects to be phenomenal at the thing we need most. Is he going to be a star? Probably not. Is he going to be better than our high draft picks in the past on day one or be CP3 with a more lethal shot? **** no. But he's the sort of role player where we can almost guarantee he'll fit the exact role we need him to play. No brainer for me to take him.
Just for a different perspective, who are some high skill/high feel guys like Reed who have failed in the NBA? As a Reed bandwagoner, I am seeing a lot of guys that ended up succeeding fairly substantially relative to expectations (FVV, Caruso, Bane, Reaves, Brunson, maybe Podz, etc), and so of course that just makes me think more highly of a player like Reed. Maybe the best example is a Jimmer Fredette, though I'm not sure that's an ideal fit (and even then, it also almost sounds like ego/personality issues might have prevented him from doing better?). Are there any other good examples? To be clear "good shooter != good feel" necessarily. I've been trying to bet on high feel guys in the draft now. I actually like Amen's feel as much if not better than his athleticism. Trying to think of some good counters to push me away from going all in on that kind of stuff. Oh and yes I know some of the guys I listed are 6'5" or so instead of 6'3", though I'm not sure that really matters much.
I never bet on height improvements in the nba. occasionally it happens but rare. fairly rare to get a ton of speed improvements, too... but given Reed's athleticism, i wouldn't be shocked to see 5%-15% improvement in lateral speed over the next few years. I think the biggest improvement likely to come with him is just understanding how to play pure point, using angles, etc. I know the NBA is stacked... but FVV, who in almost every way physically is worse than Reed, just put up 18/8/4 on 57% ts%. I fully expect Reed to eventually hit something like that, if not better, especially as it comes to efficiency. Reed is unquestionably the better shooter and finisher. But more than everything, the thing with Reed is that he just always makes "right plays", offensively and defensively. Which is why he completely dominated basically every advanced stat metric. He's the type of guy that if any other legit top of the lotto player had his combo of skill, iq, and mentality would legit be a clear HOF potential player. Castle, Holland, Bazulis, Risachere.... give anyone of them dudes all of Reed attributes, or conversely give Reed their height, and you're talking about a dude that is not only the clear #1 guy, but one of the most exciting #1s behind Wemby in decades. Everything Reed does is "better" than Cade, for example. He even has better athleticism. He's just many inches shorter. But it is what it is... it IS an issue that he is that short, with that lack of lateral burst and twitchy-ness. How much it impacts his ceiling, and/or floor, is tbd
He makes the right plays against college players. He's quick enough against college players. That doesn't always translate to the NBA. His athleticism is also questioned when he undersold his standing reach to have a higher vertical measurement. Currently his standing reach is apparently smaller than FVV which is not what I would guess. I think he fits well with this team but I'm not going to place lofty expectations on him until he does it against NBA defenses at least once. I like Jim as the pick but I would be willing to trade down to pick him also as he typically wouldn't be a third pick overall type talent.
Athleticism is over rated, if you can't make a shot.... He is not just GOOD at shot making he is ELITE at it...... Guys that are ELITE at shot making will be fine in the NBA even if that is all he does, but the data suggests he is better than that at defense, passing, and everything bball related. ELITE is elite.....would be nice to see the ball going in consistently from at least one of our players. DD
