Who has the Most Upside or Star Potential in this Draft?

For me it is Sarr and Risacher

They could both be complete flops, but there is also an alluring skill set in either player that could see them all-stars.

I suppose that isn't a wildly bold prediction, but it reflects their 1/2 positioning in most mocks

 

Reed Sheppard

 

Stephon Castle or Rob Dillingham.

Reed Sheppard's draft stock keeps rising lately, but I think part of the reason for that is manipulation by GMs who do not want him. As with the stock market, asset managers are hoping to manipulate things to their advantage. The higher Sheppard goes, the further someone like Castle falls.

Upside is a combination of athleticism (in every sense: speed, balance, etc), education/upbringing/intelligence, and mechanics. It is also the assessment of how good a player would be if he were to continue developing skills. When you consider all these things, Castle and Dillingham have a lot of upside. They are the prototypical star basketball player. Reed Sheppard is not a prototypical star. He projects more in the realm of a JJ Reddick.

I don't like to speak badly about players, but when it comes to draft time, you sort of have to. I don't understand the love for Reed Sheppard. Not as a third-overall pick. I'd take him maybe in the top 10.

You also have to factor in how much upside a player has for your team. It is rumored that Stephon Castle wants to play PG. That would be fine by us. We need a backup PG. Castle can play PG/SG/SF for the Rockets for 15+ years potentially if he wants. That is upside.

 

Risacher strikes me as a defensively capable MPJ without the serious injury concerns. That's a really excellent player (max worthy if the defense is net positive) except I feel like Jabari is going to be that next season at 6'11 with a 7'1 wingspan.

 

On the other hand, I do worry that Reed Sheppard might become something new in the NBA that we haven't seen before, like what happened with Steph Curry. As with Steph, Reed had a father who played basketball, and he has grown up around the game. Both Reed's parents have bred him to be a basketballer, which is how it often is for the most elite performers within a sport. When I watch Reed play, he looks very good. It's plausible that Reed is entirely unique and becomes something we did not yet know in the NBA. But what are the chances?

If I had to give a player comparison for Reed Sheppard, it would be Teen Wolf.

 

Are you talking about Top 10 or Top 25 potential....

 

I think there are a few Maxeys in this Draft to be honest but it would take longer.

Not even sure if Maxey stays a Star or becomes Harden.

 

Reed Sheppard.

 

In terms of potential high scorers I like what I’m seeing from Risacher and Dilingham. I think Castle also has a good chance to be a solid scorer as well especially if the ball is in his hands as a PG. I really like Buzelis but he will be a 3 year project. It’s easy to see that Buzelis gets pushed around often and he’s too thin to play against grown men but he has an arsenal of moves to make him a 6’10 triple threat. If he can improve his stamina and add 10-15 lbs he’s going to finish those plays. I don’t see Reed being a high scorer but he is a shooter and if given the right system could be vital to winning. He reminds me more of Derek Fisher, a highly valued role player who is clutch and can make those key defensive and offensive plays to win.

 

Holland etc.

 

I don't know if he has the most upside, but I think Reed's ceiling is higher than most people think. I've repeated this a few times, but I think these guys with high feel/skillsets at a young age tend to get a *lot* better, even if they don't have crazy athleticism/measurables. Rockets fans can probably think of at least one example of that.

Risacher definitely seems like a project, especially if you want anything other than 3&D. I'm not sure I'm super high on him developing his game much beyond that. Holland, Buzelis, Sarr, etc are probably good bets for highest upside (though not sure if they'll actually get there). Wasn't super impressed with some of the Castle video I saw, but I'll probably watch some more to see if I can change my mind on him and his upside. Also really like Clingan (maybe highest floor?), but I'm not sure I'm seeing DPOY/Brook Lopez/Marc Gasol/etc type potential with him.

I evaluate talent about as well as my dog though, so take a grain of salt with all that.

 

I don't know about his injuries so that may or may not be an issue, but when the Rockets got the #3 pick, my first inclination after reading all the top prospects scouting report was Topic, because I felt like he had the most star potential.

 

Completely agree with your Reed take, but that's not popular around here.

I'd say Matas Buzelis. 6'10 with guard-like handles. The height to shoot over most even contested and the ability to get around them if he wants to. The questions are his drive to assert himself, he seems somewhat slow, and more than anything, his shooting ability. All big ifs, but 6'10 with his skills? If they hit, the team that drafts him will definitely have something.

 

lol… as if entire scouting departments and front office staff are going to abandon their own data and research and just go with the draft stock rumors on the internet

 

For me it's Sarr or Dillingham. Both have knocks.

I think Dillingham has Maxey-esque ability, but he's more in the Trae Young size-bracket, and we've seen how much of a defensive liability he's been, even with his insane production.

Something people don't discuss with Sarr is that they changed up his J form mid-year, and the results became a lot worse. I think if he kept his natural form, I'd feel a lot better about him following a Chet-like development path (Sarr's less polished but stronger).

After those two, I'd say Holland and Buzelis. They're hard to evaluate because of the G-League year but have some untapped talent, especially if Holland works on his J and Buzelis bulks up.

 

What speaks for Holland is his strength and insane Jalen Green-esque burst in transition finishing.

 

There have been many athletic 6'6"-6'8" Wings with shaky Js that have gone high in the past 15 years, and many have flamed out...but I think what separates a Jaylen Brown prospect from a Josh Jackson prospect is their motor and love for the game, and I think Holland definitely has the motor. That's why I wish he played college ball, because I think his defensive tenacity would've shined through. The G-League path just left a lot of questions unanswered, and the same questions about his offense (namely his 3-ball) still remain.

But if I had to put money down on a 4-5 lottery prospects to pan out, Holland would be one of them.