His floor is solid and he has upside in his analytics and advanced impact stats. I like other players to be honest but can appreciate how he fits with this team, If he can impact the game at the NBA level and just wasn't fully unlocked in college he'll be worth the hype. We'll see what happens
This is the 2009 draft all over again. Sheppard = the undersized sharpshooter Steph Curry. Clingan = the 7'2"+ shot blocking force from UConn Hasheem Thabeet.
He's TJ McConnell/Matt Maloney And YES I'd like him to be a Rocket!!! He has unquantifiable traits and a true basketball player
I'm a little worried this is the year the Rockets are going to head in some weird direction and surprise everybody due to the nature of this draft class, and with almost every online Rockets fan clamoring for Reed Sheppard, it could result in some very upset people. The consensus just isn't that firm on the draft order this time around.
You forgot about his baby midget hands being a negative! Nice job, though! Re : the combo guard aspect. He's played some pg and sg, but has always pretty much been a combo guard since high school. I don't know how he'll do as PG in the NBA, or how he'll handle pressure, but it's always nice to have another high IQ ballhandler in the lineup. I like the fact he has no ego from the looks of it. Even coming out of high school and entering UK, I remember him saying, he'll play SG, PG, or be the waterboy if they want him to or something. And unlike others saying it, he seemed honest about it. There's a lot of Amen in that response, and it's great to hear. Also nice to see the guy has meat on his bones and isn't built like a stick like most of these recent drafts.
If we're keeping the pick, I'd be happy to take Sheppard at 3. If any of the core 6 turn out to be stars he'd be perfect in that Lowry-FVV 2019 Raptors role. The more I look at this draft, the more warts I see in everyone so whatever, forget the star upside and take super role player upside. I think the Seth Curry comp is really interesting. How much better is his handle than Seth? Seth has been a decent defender in the league despite his size and has finished as the best 3pt shooter by % in prior seasons but has been stuck as a combo guard instead of a true point because of his lack of a handle. How does Reed compare as an individual shot creator?
A lot has changed in the last 15 years and smaller players have a significantly lower probability of becoming an NBA level starter.
I like Reed. He may be the backup plan (if Houston keeps their pick) but if Risacher falls to #3, the Rockets are most likely picking him. He's arguably just as good of a shooter and can guard multiple positions. In his most recent game he scored 28 and went 5/8 from 3. I love Reed's game and think he may go 6th or 7th.. but if the Rockets are keeping FVV, he's playing 35 mpg. Jalen needs pt and so does Amen and Cam. If you're talking about him being a major contributor a year or two from now, it wouldn't make much sense to waste the pick on a pg this season. There always next year's draft and I doubt Brooklyn will improve much. Jeff Green's going to be a year older and Rockets need insurance in case Tari gets injured again. You can plug Risacher in for some good shooting and defense. If he's not going to be a Rocket then I'd warmly welcome Reed. Highlights from Risacher's recent game is below.
been here 2.5 decades and can’t recall ever seeing anything from this OP.. but we’re supposed to take his/her take as gospel
Great post, congrats. I would add that maturity level, off the court habits, character, mental toughness, end being crucial factors at drafting. That's hard to judge just based on videos, and I don't know where he is in that regard.
First off, I'm not buying it BUT this is a very solid post so hats off to you for that - seriously! I agree with the points that the absolute best case scenario for Reed is what we need on this roster but I think people are overlooking some pretty glaring problems with his size that say he likely won't be the best case version of himself and instead will be much closer to current Shanghai Sharks legend Jimmer Fredette than any of the players you listed. He lacks the 'stout-ness' of guys like FVV and Kyle Lowry, has a lower reach/height combination than everyone in your list, doesn't have elite speed, isn't a particularly elite ball handler (hello Kyrie and Steph), he hasn't been a PG before and that's the ONLY role he can play in the NBA, and the defensive play you mention above is mostly with him as a "roamer"/playing passing lanes and while that is of value in the NBA, not as much of that will translate in the NBA because you have fewer weak links in the pros than you do in college....and he likely is at a defensive disadvantage because of his size and ahtleticism to roughly 98% of all players he will face in the NBA. I really do wish Reed was 2-3 taller because it's an ENTIRELY different conversation at that point but the risk of him being valueless at the end of his rookie contract where you are paying him $10mil/year is significantly higher than some of these upside guys like Steph Castle(even though Castle has positional redundancy). We just have to resists the urge to think Reed is going to be something he isn't just because he vaguely looks like something we need. I'll ask this question - what's worse: - drafting a player who maybe has more positional redundancy but at least will likely have some upside and have some value around the league after their rookie deal(maybe we can trade them for what we NEED) - drafting a player who fits what we need but has a low chance of getting there and could potentially not have trade value while on their rookie contract because a $10mil/year guy who is too short for the NBA is not a particularly appealing trade asset.
THIS all day. Confirmation bias at it's finest. ...and by the way - @Medicine N Music put together a fantastic post so kudos to them for laying out a compelling argument. I just think it will fall short in the end.
What's the percentage of guys measured 6'2" or less barefoot that became starters over the past 15 years vs guys with the same measurements the 15 years prior to that? You said it was a significantly lower probability so go ahead and show us the number. If you pulled that number out of your gut, politely speaking, you're wrong. The league moved away from the post and midrange based offense, widely adopted the three point line, and yet smaller players have a harder time becoming starters? Considering that Curry isn't even the only 30+ year old star small guard still playing I find that hard to believe. Here's a list of star guards measured 6'2" or under barefoot that started at least half of their games this season. Mike Conley Kyrie Irving Steph Curry Fred VanVleet Ja Morant Trae Young Kyle Lowry Darius Garland Tyrese Maxey Jalen Brunson Damian Lillard Those are just the ones that have made an all-star team at some point in their careers, not even including other starters like Collin Sexton, Terry Rozier, Tyus Jones, or Tre Jones. Or good backups like CP3 or Tj McConnell. Half of the teams are starting a short guy. What was that percentage 15 years ago?
au contraire… OP states that unequivocally, reed is the best player available at #3. now i like this kid a lot too. but we still have 5 more weeks to conduct due diligence. that means sifting thru all other prospects frontwards & backwards before being able to cockily deem reed as bpa. getting enamored with one prospect and posting only about that prospect whilst blowing off consideration of any other options — that’s arrogance not evaluation
