You put Sarr's weight in bold like it's a major issue. Mobley, Holmgren, Wemby are all plus defenders with DPOY potential. Sarr, like many of the top prospects, is a teenager. Players can and usually do add weight past their teenage years. They typically can't add foot speed, which is also very important for defense in today's NBA. Anthony Davis was 220lb when he was drafted. He's 255 now. Giannis was 196lb at the draft, he's 245 now. A player's weight pre-draft is irrelevant.
I am surprised that 24% of his shots are at rim and he shot a respectable 61% for his size. JJ Reddick (his infallible comp ) was a career 62% at rim, but only made up of 0.9% (one percent!) of his shots.
I’m talking potential. I don’t want a center, especially of the walking dead variety. Clingan will never be more than a 15 minute a game player. Sarr has potential to be something great and would be a great trade asset. No center in this draft does anything for us this year. If we can’t manage a trade with the no. 3 for Jalen green insurance, then it’s whoever is left between Sheppard, Dillinger, or Sarr. I really want Dillinger over Sheppard, because he can break down defenses one on one and is a terrific shooter, which is what we need out of our shooting guard and is precisely why we are so reluctant to move on from Jalen.
Risacher picked a good time to have the game of his life (literally), but I still don't want a 3&D wing with the 3rd pick... Not only is it not a position of need for us at the moment, but that trope is arguably the easiest type of player to find in today's NBA. And frankly, I don't really get all the Risacher hype. Not hating, just being honest. He averaged 10 ppg this year on 44% shooting.. and had a career year shooting 35% from 3 on 3.5 attempts per game, which is solid, but nothing special. He had multiple games this year where he didn't score a single point (not kidding). He's not a particularly good rebounder for his size at less than 4 boards per game and he's a bit one-dimensional as well as he's not a shot-creator (less than 1 assist per game..). When he puts the ball on the floor, his offense sputters. He really just projects as your typical 3&D wing with average athleticism by NBA standards. Not saying he won't be a decent player eventually, but I really don't see why so many mocks gave him going top-3. Doesn't make sense to me. I have him in the 5-8 range on my Big Board personally.
There are definitely ways that Reed fails, but situation kind of matters too, the Rockets more than most other teams in this range probably wont' ask him to just be on ball or die trying. instead will probably try to find whatever is the most likely way for him to succeed in helping the team and then potentially develop later. Also, we have the most great defensive wings around him to probably cover up his possible defensive weakenss. Even if he's just a great off ball shooter / connecter / pesky off ball defender it probably works for this team, let alone if he becomes a real on ball guy. Although his actual usage % and time on ball wasn't huge, there were definitely glimpes of a guy that looked like a point guard in there if only from the way he just always look ahead of the floor and finds some serious reads in transition. and occasional attacks / change of pace blow bys. Yes I do agree with this analysis in the quote that he has enough flaws that just assuming he'll be a on ball guy, especially early in his career is probably too much to ask, but lets just say that if we end up with an Amen Thompson that ends up being strong enough to be on ball rim pressure guy, but still can't really shoot, who's the other guard you like around him?
Lol agreed he's going to be a Spur at 4 if WAS passes on him. Unless both he and Sheppard are both available the the Spurs are on the clock.. Then it's a coin flip-imo.
We are getting a role player at #3. Sarr, Sheppard, Clingan, and Risacher are all role players. But the Kings took Keegan Murray over high upside Jaden Ivey at #4 against everyone's "bUt YoU nEeD tO dRaFt UpSiDe...." logic and he's been a super glue connector role player ever since. Probably the dude we wished Ariza had been for us. Detroit went for upside with Ivey because you never draft for fit apparently and they're now proud owners of the longest losing streak in NBA history.
My impression is that Sheppard is much more of a pure basketball player than the one dimensional shooters people are always comparing him to. Solid handles, great feel for spacing and passing lanes, solid ability to generate space to get his shot off, etc. Comparing him to 1 dimensional spot up shooters prejudices the discussion so that people natually tend to think he's a 1 dimensional jump shooter as well. Not the absolute expert on all things Sheppard, but from everyhing I've seen he's MUCH more than some of the guys people are comparing him to.
In any other draft he wouldn't be projected anywhere near as high. People just keep forgetting that this is supposed to be a super weak draft. None of the top guys are comparable to top guys of previous years, you wouldn't take any of them that high usually.
Sam mentions Franz Wagner being far ahead of him coming out of Michigan in terms of an "on ball" player.
There is a lot of debate about how good he actually is on the ball, both as a scorer and as a playmaker for others (as opposed to just a connective passer and an off-ball shooter). Those two things plus his size are the two biggest questions, and they are significant. If he were the same height as Risacher, or even just a couple inches shorter, he'd be viewed as easily the better prospect. As it is, I suspect he will be below Risacher on almost every team's board, if not all of them.
I like the idea of ransoming him to the Spurs. And I have no doubt his upside is big, but with the shooting in question and the poor defense, I really hope the rockets don’t actually draft him.
He has questions about his ability to shoot and injury concerns. He could be the best player in this draft, he could be back playing overseas in a few years. Super risky pick IMO
First of all, if Amen does not develop a 3 (or even 2) level shooting game, he is a bench player, albeit a very nice one to have. And Amen would be fully exploited in a playoff series (like Ben Simmons would be) making him a great but flawed player. In this case, the PG or PG/SG the Rockets draft at #3 (if they draft for need) needs to be a starter that has all-star potential. If the Rockets plan to ride or die with Amen at point, the need position becomes a 3-and-D SF/wing, which this draft has good candidates top of the draft: Zaccharie Risacher, Dalton Knecht, Cody Williams, Tristan Da Silva, Kyshawn George ... and to a lesser extent Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, Ryan Dunn.
