I don't see a whole lot of dissent about Sheppard being a fine pick Just maybe let's hold our horses on crowning him the next CP3, Nash, etc when he's not even being considered the best player in what's widely considered a bad draft.
That is a 'good question' and why I'm fine with whoever the FO wants -- I was hoping for a lanky 6' 8" (ish) 3/D type SF so I'm intrigued with Zaccharie, but I just don't know enough about him. He could be gone anyway so it might not matter (ex: Pablo Ranchero).
I think people just have a hard time coming to grips with the basic uncertainty of the draft. Sheppard might be a star, a role player, or out of the league. Same is true of Sarr. Same is true of Clingan, Castle, Risacher, whoever. Same is true of every prospect ever. We are not particularly great predictors of future outcomes. NBA talent evaluators are not much better. The track record is clear. But we do know that analytical models are better than the eye test, Sheppard is one of the best guard prospects to come along in a while from an analytics perspective, and he’s unlikely to be picked by ATL or WAS for a variety of reasons. This IMO means he’s a bet we we should be excited about making, because the odds have worked out in our favor. It’s still just a bet though.
The strange thing about the draft discussions so far is that there is no mention of Sarr, I have seen mentions of Risacher and Reed potentially going #1, given what happened in 2022 I think anything is possible, just find it odd that Sarr is not being mentioned at all. How did he do at the combine? Wonder if there is a possibility he drop to #3.
He's not being discussed because it's unlikely he drops below #2 -- if he did we'd probably grab him.
What I want is Jalen Green to be 80% of what Anthony Edwards is and whoever you guys think is the best available shooter. But it's probably gonna be Green and that third pick for a consistent 2. Who, I don't know, I trust in Udoka.
It may be too soon but anyone have any Intel on private workouts with teams and whose scheduled with the Rockets?
If Atl and Wash are not going to pick him for a variety of reasons, why Houston? But I think Houston needs size.
ATL and WAS probably won’t pick him for a variety of reasons. They aren’t good reasons IMO. ATL is run by a new FO (aka the owner’s 27yo son) under pressure to prove they’re competent — so they’re likely to hew to expectations. They had an absolutely putrid defense last year and 3 of their 4 best players are guards. No track record to believe they are analytically minded. They’ll probably take Sarr. WAS is in the beginning of a rebuild and their GM has said they value size a lot, and are expecting to draft someone with a long developmental runway. The GM came from OKC, was the head scout there when they traded away Sengun (aka Sheppard’s all analytics / limited physical tools doppelgänger), and traded up for Coulibaly last year. They are a tools-oriented shop.
JJ never shot close to 55% from 2pt in college. He never shot close to 50% from 3pt. He never came close 4.5 assists or 2.5 steals. Stop saying he is close to being JJ. Reed has a decent chance to be a very special player in the NBA. He is extreme young, very smart, athletic enough and by miles the best shooter in the draft. No need to screw this up. If he is there at 3 get him he is the FVV replacement in a few years. I'm not so sure he is lasting past 2. Fit him along side Amen, Green, Cam, Al-P, Smith and Tari. They will benefit from his spacing and play making.
I think most of us, even the pro Sheppard guys are dialing expectations way down by default because just from the stats analysis the actual comp is probably more like Steve Nash or Steph Curry or a more balanced version of Trae Young, neither had the same level of stats in their first year in college either. I think most of us wants to dial back from that level of hyperbole, but it should be noted that just based on stats he's like an all time prospect, we are all collectively dialing back a lot due to obvious reasons.
Cody Williams/ Ron Holland/Yves Missi Question: Do the Rockets have a second round pick? Contact Detroit: Ask them would they consider the third pick for Ausar Thompson.
If Reed gets a growth spurt in his 21st year as Sengun and add 1 1/4 inches,he would be legit 6'3" w/o shoes and all questions would disappear.
The only guy in this draft that looks like a potential star to me is Nikola Topic. The feel, the control, the creativity. He shows sustained flashes of tempo control ala LaMelo/Haliburton/Brunson, etc... He is not explosive, but he gets wherever he wants, whenever he wants. Sound familiar? In all honesty, he reminds me a bit of Alperen in that way. 6-6 playmaking wizard… Chess player. Moves defenders with his eyes and finds angles all over the court. 18-years-old. 70% at the rim. 87% FT shooter. The shot is coming. If it was up to me, we'd be looking at a Topic/Amen/JG backcourt rotation, and searching high and low for a beastly forward to play alongside Tari/Jabari/Alperen.
I deem this draft a deeper draft that can help multiple franchises with high end role players and beyond.
I learned decades ago they are called prospects because anything can happen. So many factor go into younger players "making it" in the league. I still hold on to hope that one or more of the current young core could become an elite player not just an all star. Let's just remember, they've only had one year with a real coaching staff. They finally have vets that want to be here and help. I like several guys we could draft at 3 or trade back a little for, hell my bias says give Shead a chance on this team. HOWEVER we need spacing more than anything on the roster. We have Adams to clog the middle for now. We have Tari as an athletic 3 and D guy. There are several young players that we could draft at number 3 that would replace or add to those problems however we have no one on the bench that provides the spacing. I'm not saying draft need over talent but in this case I think the talent is there and it fills the biggest need. I see it a great stroke of luck that he might be there at 3. So many drafts come and go where we take a good prospect that doesn't fit the biggest need because the right player isn't in the draft. Reed may flop but I'd bet his stroke raises his floor over JJ by a decent margin.
